India could pick up almost half of the shortfall from slowing demand growth for commodities in China this decade, driven mainly by higher energy purchases, according to ANZ Banking Group Ltd.
China will likely grow at a weaker pace in the coming years, while India should remain steady, Soni Kumari, a commodity strategist at ANZ, said in interview with Bloomberg Television. The South Asian nation might replace around 60% of the drop in Chinese consumption of oil and coal by 2030, she said in response to questions following the interview.
Asia’s largest economy has been struggling to recover after the removal of virus curbs, with Beijing reluctant to deploy massive spending stimulus like it did after the global financial crisis due to debt concerns. At the same time, India is entering an infrastructure-building phase, and is also well behind China in the uptake of renewable electricity and electric vehicles.
Indian “commodities demand will pick up quite strongly, and at the same time commodities demand growth is going to decelerate in China,” Kumari said in the TV interview. “India will have the opportunity to pick up some of the slack.”
In metals, India may be able to meet about 45% of the shortfall left by China for steel demand and 24% for aluminum, she said. Despite the shift in consumption, China will remain the dominant market for commodities for the foreseeable future, Kumari said.
--With assistance from Rajesh Kumar Singh, Anand Menon, Rishaad Salamat and Haslinda Amin.
