Justin Verlander is almost certainly going to be an outgoing piece before the MLB trade deadline on Tuesday. These three teams make the most sense.
Max Scherzer hinted at a trade, and not even 24 hours later, he was gone. The New York Mets have made it clear after trading Scherzer and David Robertson that they will be massive sellers during the 2023 MLB trade deadline period after disappointing tremendously thus far this season.
Certainly, Justin Verlander is likely next. If the Mets are selling, pitchers will be the first to go, as it's a need for plenty of teams looking to add at this year's deadline. He was also rumored to be a possible outgoing piece before Scherzer.
The signal has been sent with the Scherzer move that the Mets will sell, so look for Verlander to move next.
Four teams stand out as logical destinations. Here they are, ranked by likelihood (as I see it, and based on the rumors thus far), from least to most likely.
Justin Verlander trade destinations: Texas Rangers
The Rangers were thought to be very interested in Verlander before they eventually nabbed the other Mets ace, Max Scherzer, on Saturday afternoon.
Now that the deal is official, they have little need for Verlander.
There may be a remote possibility the Rangers look to add both pitchers, but the likelihood feels slim.
Don't count it out entirely, though. The Rangers were still looking at other starting pitchers (albeit less expensive ones) on Saturday as the Scherzer deal was more or less complete.
Justin Verlander trade destinations: Los Angeles Dodgers
The Los Angeles Dodgers are one team that has been linked to Scherzer for some time, and though Los Angeles has already added Lance Lynn to its starting rotation, Lynn has struggled at times this year and there would be a strong case to be made that adding Verlander would really anchor in the starting pitching for the post-deadline portion of the year.
Clayton Kershaw is the clear ace of the rotation now, and Verlander would give the Dodgers a one-two punch that would make them deadly in a postseason series.
Though Verlander's WHIP has gone above 1.0 this season, it was sub-1.0 for the last five seasons. The Dodgers, this year, already have three starting pitchers below 1.0 (Julio Urias, Tony Gonsolin, Kershaw), and if Verlander could reach that level of dominance on the mound in LA, it's tough to see teams mustering enough out of their bats to threaten a win in a series.
The interest is clear, as the Dodgers were one of several teams that attempted to sign Verlander as a free agent this winter.
A major piece holding this back is that the Dodgers have been heavy in any discussions around starting pitching. With Jordan Montgomery looking more available and likely at a lower price with no long-term commitment, it's quite possible the Dodgers go elsewhere to add to the starting rotation, even if their ideal is Verlander.
Los Angeles and St. Louis have also been engaged on discussions in pitchers already, as their talks around Nolan Arenado started with pitching.
Justin Verlander trade destinations: Tampa Bay Rays
I fiddled around with the order here, originally having the Dodgers ranked as more likely than the Tampa Bay Rays. I think, if the Dodgers, Astros and Rays make equal offers, Verlander will choose either LA or Houston. Verlander has a no-trade clause, so two teams need to agree plus Verlander needs to sign off. And as we saw with Scherzer yesterday, it's not just as simple as liking the destination.
The problem is, I'm not so sure the Dodgers will submit an offer for Scherzer.
The Dodgers just acquired Lance Lynn and Joe Kelly from the Chicago White Sox, the former of which is a starting pitcher. There's not quite as much of a need for the West Coast team to add Scherzer to the mix, and I think that will bring the price they're willing to pay down below what the Rays and Astros ceiling will be.
That makes one sleeping giant slightly more likely, in the end, but it's hard to tell how likely they might be.
The Rays have been tied to Marcus Stroman, but with him off the trade market as the Cubs are on a blistering hot streak, they may need to look to add starting pitching elsewhere. Why not Verlander?
Other than price, there's no reason not to pursue this.
The thing that would hold a deal like this back is Verlander himself. The star pitcher has that aforementioned no-trade clause and Tampa can be a polarizing destination for fans and players alike. If Verlander values an environment that might get him another shot at a World Series and believes the Rays to be the best place for that, perhaps he waives it for Tampa.
I think there's a far more likely landing spot, however.
Justin Verlander trade destinations: Houston Astros
Why not go back somewhere familiar where winning looked easy? Verlander pitched five years for the Astros, won two Cy Youngs, two World Series titles, and was named to three All-Star games.
Verlander and Houston just went together well.
Also, Hector Gomez has reported that the Astros and Verlander are intensifying as a trade match.
The going has not been so easy in New York. A reset back to Houston would be good for Verlander, and the Astros are hanging around in the AL West. Perhaps Verlander has regrets about not running it back with the Astros. Such a trade should be something he's open to.
Balancing teams that are likely to try to trade for Verlander and locations where he would waive his no-trade clause for, Houston tops the list. He can be a total game-changer for the Astros and help get the team to the postseason for their shot at playing for a World Series.
Right now, the Astros reunion looks like the most likely outcome, and it's not particularly close.
