The Liberty are back on the road after stopping home for one game, a loss to the Chicago Sky.
New York's splashy offseason has led to middling returns thus far, the team is 4-2 but is far from its elite form just yet. It'll take time to adjust to so many talented players, but the team is remains considerable favorites against a mid-tier team like the 2-3 Atlanta Dream.
The Dream like to play an up-and-down style, but will that put the home team behind early and often against a star-studded team like the Liberty?
Here are the odds for Friday's matchup:
Liberty vs. Dream odds, spread and total
Liberty vs. Dream prediction and pick
The Dream play at a top three pace as the team tries to make up for its lack of shooting (fourth worst effective field goal percentage) by getting out in transition. I think this can be a spot where the Liberty can be sped up on the road given that the team has the second highest turnover percentage in the WNBA this season at nearly 20% as it still gets acclimated with its new roster.
However, when not turning the ball over, the Liberty should be able to get great looks based on its ball movement. The team leads the WNBA by a wide margin with an assist rate north of 78%. The fact that the Liberty move the ball with such precision should open up looks for the team to build on its elite shot making (third in the league in eFG%). Further, the Dream have the second lowest defensive rebounding rate in the league. New York's offense should be able to get to its quota.
The Dream are comfortable playing games well into the 160's with its increased tempo and I believe the Liberty will have no choice but to oblige. I'll take the over on Friday night.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
