The Seattle Mariners scored four runs in the top of the ninth inning on Monday night to beat the San Francisco Giants, and they'll look to take Game 2 on Tuesday with youngster Logan Gilbert on the mound.
Gilbert is 5-5 with a 4.19 ERA this season, but his Fielding Independent Pitching (3.62) suggests he's pitched a little better than his ERA tells us.
He will take on Keaton Winn (0-1, 3.50 ERA) who is making his fifth appearance and second start of the 2023 season – and his career.
The Giants are slight favorites in this game, but the team has cooled off considerably after a strong start to June. How should we bet on this Independence Day matchup?
Mariners vs. Giants odds, run line and total
Mariners vs. Giants prediction and pick
The Mariners are one win away from getting back to .500 on the season, and I think they get it on Tuesday.
The team is just 7-9 in Gilbert's 16 starts, but he's only had two outings where he's allowed more than four runs, which should mean that Seattle will at least be in this game.
Gilbert ranks in the 70th percentile in expected ERA this season, and he doesn't give up a lot of free passes, walking just 19 batters all season (92nd percentile in walk percentage).
Winn has looked good in limited work this season, but he could be due for a little regression with his FIP sitting at 4.57.
The Giants' bullpen cost them Monday's game, and the team will need to rely on it again with Winn only making his second career start.
I'll take a shot on Gilbert and the Mariners as slight dogs on Tuesday.
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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
