The Miami Marlins have lost three straight games, but they are hoping their ace Sandy Alcantara can be the stopper for the losing streak on Wednesday against the Colorado Rockies.
Alcantara, last season's Cy Young Award winner in the National League, is off to a slow start in 2023, posting a 1-5 record and 5.05 ERA through nine starts.
However, I believe Alcantara is due for some positive regression, as his Fielding Independent Pitching (3.58) is well short of where his ERA is to open the season.
Rockies rookie Karl Kauffman (0-1, 8.31 ERA) will make the second start of his career in this game.
How should we bet on this matchup with the Marlins set as road favorites?
Marlins vs. Rockies odds, run line and total
Marlins vs. Rockies prediction and pick
Even though he hasn't pitched as well this season as he did last season, I can't fade Alcantara here.
He still ranks in the top half of the league in average exit velocity against and barrel percentage while ranking in the 88th percentile in chase rate this season. Sandy may not win the Cy Young again, but he's better than his 5.05 ERA suggests.
Kauffman, on the other hand, had a rough debut against the Texas Rangers, allowing five runs (four earned) in 4.1 innings of work. He should have an easier time against a weak Marlins offense, but I don't think it will be enough to beat Alcantara.
The Rockies aren't a great offense either, ranking 18th in OPS this season, so I'll fade them against a power pitcher like Alcantara who thrives on inducing weak contact.
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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
