The Dallas Mavericks shamelessly tanked their way out of the play-in tournament despite rostering Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving. Now, it's time to seek redemption in the new season.
Luka Doncic led the Dallas Mavericks to the Western Conference Finals in 2021. Recent NBA history has been saturated with magnificent individual stretches, but few can touch Doncic's postseason run in the final year of his rookie contract. That was the moment when we all collectively realized oh, this dude is special.
How did Dallas follow it up? With an 11th-place finish and a shameless last-second tank effort to hang onto their top-10 protected first-round pick. Doncic's numbers didn't flatline — in fact, they improved significantly — but the team around him crumbled.
There's blame to go around, of course. Jason Kidd continues to absolutely bomb in his second season as the team's head coach. The defense went from elite to barely palatable, then took a nosedive off the deep end when Dallas traded for Kyrie Irving in February. The front office failed to make any meaningful upgrades before the season and gutted the roster to make the Irving trade happen midseason.
Now, it's the year of redemption. Doncic is a perennial MVP candidate who shouldn't be out of the postseason picture for long. Kyrie is back on a reasonable new contract. Dallas' front office aced the offseason test, addressing key areas of need in the NBA Draft before making a few savvy moves in free agency.
There's every reason to believe the team can bounce back. There are also reasons for sustained skepticism. Some of Jason Kidd's schematic and rotational choices last season were indefensible and he has driven teams into the ground before. Plus, you know, did the defense actually meaningfully improve? It's too early to tell.
Here's how the rotations will look once the season gets underway.
Dallas Mavericks starting point guard: Luka Doncic
Luka Doncic can be tricky to peg positionally. He's the primary ball-handler and lead playmaker in Dallas. Offensively, he's everything a point guard has come to embody in the modern NBA. He probably shoots more like your traditional two-guard, but his brilliance as a passer is right at the forefront of everything he does. On defense, however, Doncic is essentially a forward. Improved conditioning could increase his positional flexibility a little bit, but Doncic is never chasing guards over screens or guarding the point of attack if Dallas can help it.
For our purposes, he's the point guard. The standard five-position labels are widely outdated, but that's another argument for another day. Doncic will command the offense in Dallas and he will do so with aplomb. Dallas' disappointing 2022-23 season was mired in poor defense, but the offense was never a problem. Once Kyrie arrived, the Mavs were frequently on the wrong end of 130-plus point shootouts. NBA defenses still can't wrap their heads around Doncic.
He's the best isolation player in the world. He has long drawn comparisons to prime James Harden for that very reason, and while Harden was different in his approach and his idiosyncrasies, Doncic is as close as we'll probably ever get to Harden's heliocentric style of play. He slowly and deliberately eviscerates his defender in isolation, constantly changing speed and direction. He's remarkably strong, absorbing contact for awkward finishes better than any guard in the NBA. He's also in the LeBron-Jokic tier of using his eyes as well as his handle to manipulate the defense and create fissures out of nowhere. He has truly mastered the game.
The Doncic pick-and-roll will continue to be the bedrock upon which Dallas' offense is built. Irving hasn't been this well positioned for clean catches and open lanes to the rim since he shared the court with LeBron in Cleveland. There are defensive concerns with Doncic, sure, but he's one of the five best players on the planet. We're picking nits.
Primary backup point guard: Kyrie Irving
The Mavs should stagger Doncic and Irving. Keep one on the floor at all times. Irving is a brilliant offensive engine in his own right and while he doesn't quite possess Doncic's talent for elevating teammates, Irving will frequently cause defensive breakdowns and create advantages off of them.
Other players who could receive minutes at point guard: Seth Curry
Dallas Mavericks starting shooting guard: Kyrie Irving
The Kyrie Irving trade was marred in unavoidable controversy at the time. Irving's off-court problems are well-tread terrain and it's fair to wonder if he will serve the remainder of his new three-year, $120 million contract to the fullest extent possible. That said, it's not an overpay for Irving's basketball talent and it's not like the Mavs are swimming in better options.
So, Irving is back. His numbers between Brooklyn and Dallas last season were virtually identical. He actually increased his assists by a smidge and saw his shooting percentages budge in the right direction with Dallas, which can be primarily attributed to Doncic. Any hand-wringing over the fit between Doncic and Irving before the deadline looks ludicrous in hindsight. There are defensive concerns of course, but Doncic is an offensive engine who empowers his teammates. Irving might not get as much time to dribble the air out of the ball, but he is being served up advantageous scoring opportunities on a silver platter.
Irving remains frightfully skilled with the basketball. It's still hard to fathom that he and Doncic are on the same team. You don't get extra 'cool' points in the NBA, but Irving and Doncic are so difficult to contain in isolation that it can leave defenses in complete disarray. Irving and Doncic are the ultimate bailout scorers, which means even the best defensive possessions often end in a Dallas bucket. Irving is comfortable operating off the ball from his days next to LeBron (and Harden, for that matter) and he appears to have checked his ego enough to embrace the Doncic partnership.
An elite 3-point shooter who can get to his shot from pretty much anywhere and any method, Irving is going to be just fine in his first full year next to Doncic. Dallas can run him through a maze of screens off the ball to free up space while the defense focuses its attention on Doncic at the top of the key. If Doncic becomes more willing to move without the rock, the possibilities are endless.
Primary backup shooting guard: Jaden Hardy
Jaden Hardy was a faint glimmer of hope in a dark and dreadful night after the trade deadline. The Mavs' second-round pick was one of the few rotation players not named Luka or Kyrie who felt like a consistently positive influence. Hardy shot 40.4 percent from deep and averaged 8.8 points in 14.8 minutes per game.
At Summer League, Mavs assistant coach Jared Dudley spoke eloquently about changing Hardy's offensive mindset so he can take the next step. Hardy has long been oriented toward scoring the ball, and he's quite good at it. His explosive first step and pull-up shooting touch are legitimate weapons for Dallas. That said, he has to play next to Doncic and Irving. If he can embrace passing and off-ball movement, his role will be cemented — and we will be discussing him as a very, very good player in the near future.
Other players who could receive minutes at shooting guard: Seth Curry, Dante Exum
Seth Curry is back for his second go-around in Dallas. He wasn't particularly effective with Brooklyn last season and he seems to have lost some of his mojo since leaving his DHO haven next to Joel Embiid in Philadelphia. The Mavs certainly have the offensive personnel to set Curry up for success, but he's an undersized two-guard who doesn't really defend. That's going to cause some problems.
Dante Exum merits mentioning here. The Aussie and former lottery pick has always been a tantalizing perimeter defender, but he was phased out of the league due to his inability to shoot. Well, he shot quite effectively in Euroleague play last season and he's back for round two in the NBA. If Exum is a reformed spot-up shooter, his defense could make him a valuable cog in Jason Kidd's rotation.
Dallas Mavericks starting small forward: Tim Hardaway Jr.
Here's the first critical decision for Jason Kidd. Doncic and Irving are easy locks. Tim Hardaway Jr. has tenure — and therefore gets the nod here — but if he doesn't perform, there are a couple of potential avenues to replace him with a younger alternative. Hardaway is 31 years old and he has been on a slight decline in recent years.
That said, Hardaway averaged 14.4 points on .401/.385/.770 splits last season. He started 45 of 71 appearances and took a career-high 7.7 attempts per game from 3-point range. His proficiency as a shooter makes him a natural fit working off the ball next to Doncic and Irving. Hardaway is comfortable navigating screens and firing off the catch, on the move, or pulling up. He was an underrated part of the Mavs' elite offense.
Of course, offense won't be a problem for Dallas with or without Hardaway in the starting five. It's a question of whether or not he's good enough defensively to merit this spot. Hardaway is slightly undersized for his position at 6-foot-5 and he doesn't really qualify as a plus defender. The Mavs have built up a decent stockpile of young wings who deserve minutes. Hardaway is on the back end of his massive contract and now more than ever, he's a candidate to get traded as Dallas seeks future improvements.
If it weren't for Kidd's stubbornness in the head coach's chair, it would be much easier to predict a move to the bench outright. Hardaway will still stretch defenses with his jumper and he has years of built-in chemistry with Doncic, but he's trending toward a demotion.
Primary backup small forward: Josh Green
Josh Green deserves to start. The Hardaway Experience Factor wins out from a projection standpoint, but I'd wager that Green is starting before the season ends. He checks too many important boxes for Dallas. He's a tremendous wing defender, arguably the best on the roster, and he shot 40.2 percent from deep last season. He fits the 3-and-D billing Dallas needs on the wing.
Green is a nuclear athlete who possesses plenty of untapped potential as an off-ball troublemaker on the defensive end. On the ball, he's strong enough to battle big wings and nimble enough to mirror guards at the point of attack.
That athleticism translates to the offensive end too, where Green poses a frequent vertical threat against sleeping defenses. He has a knack for sneaking backdoor and making himself available at the rim, where he's extremely efficient for his size. Doncic and Irving are the best backcourt imaginable for a player with Green's particular skill set. Again, he should start before too long.
Other players who could receive minutes at small forward: Grant Williams, Justin Holiday, Dante Exum, Olivier Maxence-Prosper
Keep tabs on Olivier Maxence-Prosper. He was a big riser during the pre-draft process and he earned a lot of fans in front offices across the league with his defensive intensity and bursty athleticism. At 6-foot-9, he profiles as the kind of two-way role player Dallas lacked last season. Rookies rarely see extensive minutes on contenders, but O-Max is a spirited competitor who could will his way to playing time.
Dallas Mavericks starting power forward: Grant Williams
Grant Williams ended up in Dallas on a bargain four-year, $54 million contract after his free agency period dragged out longer than expected. The funky market post-CBA probably impacted Williams, but he represents a massive rotation upgrade for the Mavs.
Most importantly for Dallas, Williams is a proven entity in the playoffs. He was in and out of the rotation for Boston in May, but the Celtics were abnormally deep. The Mavs, not so much. Williams is an obvious day-one starter who should thrive in his new capacity next to Doncic and Irving.
He is, in many ways, the ultimate modern role player. At 6-foot-6, Williams can guard all over the floor. His strength allows him to wage war in the post and he's light enough on his feet to guard the perimeter on switches. He's also an extremely intuitive player on both ends. Defensively, it manifests in spritely hands and razor-sharp instincts. Williams reacts quickly to what's happening around him and is seldom out of place. Even if he's not elite on the ball, he's so fundamentally sound and high-energy that he will have a pronounced impact on the Mavs' defense.
Offensively, Williams has transformed himself from a mediocre shooter to one of the best spot-up shooters in the NBA. He lived in the corner for Boston and should find similar opportunities off of kick-outs from the Mavs' talented playmakers. Williams is also tremendous as screen partner and roll man. He can power his way to the rim for finishes or catch and make a rapid-fire pass from the middle of the floor. He processes the game rapidly and should provide invaluable connective tissue for Kidd's offense.
Primary backup power forward: Maxi Kleber
The Mavs' big-man situation wasn't great last season and, newsflash, it won't be great next season either. That said, there's something about the reliable modernity of Maxi Kleber's game that makes him feel like a dependable option here.
He's the pinnacle of fine. Kleber isn't a great defender, but he's light on his feet with enough size and strength to get in people's way. At 6-foot-10 and 240 pounds, he can oscillate comfortably between the four or five spot depending on team needs. There's absolute value in that. On the offensive end, he hovers around league average as a 3-point shooter. The rim finishing was putrid last season and he doesn't provide as much rebounding value as you'd like from a player with his frame, but the Mavs essentially need Kleber to fill the gaps in the frontcourt. He can.
Other players who could receive minutes at power forward: Josh Green, Olivier Maxence-Prosper, Justin Holiday, Richaun Holmes
Dallas Mavericks starting center: Dwight Powell
The primary rotational question for Dallas seems to be Dwight Powell or Richaun Holmes at center. Powell has been Dallas' primary five for two years now. Holmes spent last season buried in the rotation with Sacramento, but he was productive as the Kings' starter before the Domantas Sabonis trade. There's a strong case both ways.
Or, more accurately, neither is particularly enthralling as an option. The frontcourt was Dallas' primary area of weakness last season — chiefly, its inability to deter shots at the rim. Powell was front and center of the problem area, averaging less than half a block in 19.2 minutes per game. He's a strong and physical defender at 6-foot-10, but Powell doesn't keep guards out of the paint. With the perimeter defense in shambles around Powell, it was a recipe for disaster.
More minutes for players like Grant Williams, Josh Green, and Dante Exum should help Dallas rectify the problem to some degree, but the primary unit will still be built around two defensive liabilities in Doncic and Irving. Meanwhile, minutes for Hardaway, Curry, and the like are still a guarantee. Dallas is staring down the barrel at another season of defensive woe.
That's why there are so many rumors tying Dallas to Atlanta's Clint Capela. The biggest roadblock between the Mavs and contention feels like this position, and an experienced rim protector of Capela's ilk could go a long way.
Primary backup center: Richaun Holmes
Holmes is not the solution to the Mavs' rim protection issue. He has more bounce than Powell and he can occasionally soar for a highlight swat, but Holmes is a detrimentally mixed bag on the defensive end. He gets turned around and misdirected in screening actions far too often and he's liable to get pummeled in the post by stronger centers. A tad undersized, Holmes' impact has always been primarily offensive.
And, to his credit, Holmes is a very talented offensive player. He loves to run the floor and play above the rim. If anything, Dallas should lean into the inherent defensive flaws of the roster and embrace Holmes' potential impact as lob target for Doncic. He's the better offensive center without a doubt and Powell, despite being the nominal starter, still averaged fewer than 20 minutes per game last season. There's a good chance Powell starts and Holmes finishes most games, barring a trade.
Other players who could receive minutes at center: Dereck Lively II, Maxi Kleber, JaVale McGee, Grant Williams
The Mavs used the No. 12 pick in June's NBA Draft on Dereck Lively II and would be wise to embrace it. He is, in theory, the exact rim protection and lob threat combination Dallas is missing right now. He's 19 years old — and therefore likely to spend the year in Jason Kidd's doghouse — but Lively was a strikingly intelligent defender at Duke and he profiles as the Mavs' long-term solution at center. Whether or not he can be the short-term solution is unknown, but Kidd should at least try it. Lively could end up surpassing both Powell and Holmes before season's end.
