While there have been an assortment of signings, including two high-profile pitchers in Aaron Nola and Sonny Gray, the MLB free-agent market has not seen many names come off the board.
Some of that can be attributed to Shohei Ohtani, the two-way superstar free agent who has the attention of seemingly every big market team. Some of that can also be attributed to the abundance of players represented by Scott Boras, who moves slowly in free agency as he prefers his players to establish their values on the open market. Some of that can also be attributed to a weak free-agent hitter class that has teams aggressively pursuing top pitching options.
That's also led to other players, particularly high-profile players, being asked about via trade. Here are the chances some of those players are moved this offseason.
Juan Soto
I want to make one thing clear: The Padres are not shopping Juan Soto. They don't have to trade him. But considering the amount of interest league-wide in Soto, and what the Padres can do with the money saved by trading Soto, I expect him to be traded this winter.
If the Padres do trade Soto, they will not get a package similar to the six-player haul they surrendered to acquire him from the Washington Nationals. But a full season of Soto is incredibly valuable, and should net the Padres at least two top prospects and possibly more.
Soto is projected to earn $33 million in arbitration in 2024. If the Padres do trade him, it's entirely possible that the team invests that money right back into the team to upgrade other parts of its roster. It would give the team, and general manager A.J. Preller, a lot of flexibility to navigate the offseason and even the trade deadline to put a winning team on the field this season and in future seasons.
A trade is not a guarantee. Moving a player of Soto's caliber is always a complicated process, so I would not expect a trade in the near future. But a trade sending Soto out of San Diego looks like a very real possibility.
Odds: 70%
Dylan Cease
Of any pitcher not named Tyler Glasnow on the trade market, Dylan Cease has the best chance to be moved.
The White Sox have signaled to teams that they will listen on anyone on their roster and are willing to move them if the right offer comes along. That goes for Luis Robert, Eloy Jimenez, and it certainly goes for Cease. And if the White Sox do move Cease, who is under control for two more seasons, they should get an astronomical haul in return.
Which would be very tempting for a team that's in need of a retool. It could position the White Sox for more sustainable success down the line and allow them to maximize Cease's value, as a contract extension looks increasingly unlikely as his agent, Scott Boras, rarely does extensions for his clients.
There figures to be a long list of suitors for Cease, with the Los Angeles Dodgers and Atlanta Braves both mentioned. Another team that makes sense is the Baltimore Orioles, who have the prospect capital to facilitate a deal and have been poking around the starting pitcher market. There will be many other teams involved here, too, as the opportunity to acquire an ace and have him for two full seasons will be incredibly tempting for contending clubs.
Odds: 75%
Bo Bichette
While trades involving Soto and Cease should be considered likely, the same cannot be said for Bo Bichette.
Trading Bichette has never made sense for the Blue Jays. He's under contract – rather affordably, at that – for the next two seasons. He's a premier infielder. The Blue Jays want to make the World Series and all indications are that the team is on Shohei Ohtani. You don't trade Bichette if you want to contend for a World Series. Plain and simple.
On that note, rival executives have never gotten the impression that Bichette was actually available. What that was, most likely, was the Blue Jays listening on the star infielder and seeing what is out there, which is standard practice for teams.
Blue Jays executive Ross Atkins then went on the record to say that Bichette will be part of the team moving forward, squashing any trade speculation. So it's time to put that trade talk to bed because Bichette does not appear to be going anywhere.
Odds: 5%
