The Major League Baseball offseason is heating up, and the prevailing thought from executives and agents is that the Winter Meetings have a chance to be busy... Really busy.
Free agency, most notably the pitcher market, is incredibly active, league sources say. But the trade market is also booming. Here are three players that have been mentioned in trade rumors, featuring the odds that each of them will be traded.
Vlad Guerrero Jr.
The Toronto Blue Jays have oddly been linked to different trade rumors involving two of their homegrown stars, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette.
For a team that is thinking big this winter, having their eyes on Shohei Ohtani, trading either player makes little sense. Toronto wants to win. Ohtani wants to win, and it's one of the top criteria of where he will sign this winter. Trading Guerrero or Bichette is the opposite of doing that.
What the Blue Jays are likely doing is listening on any player of theirs in trade talks. It's what all teams do to evaluate what options are available on the free-agent market. It does not mean either player will be traded. Instead, teams are checking on these players considering the lack of options on the hitting market, and the price to acquire Guerrero Jr. or Bichette will be sky-high.
Which is why a Guerrero trade should be considered highly unlikely. He'll be in Toronto next year.
Odds: 0.5/10
Shane Bieber
While the odds of Guerrero being traded are slim, the same cannot be said for Bieber.
The free-agent pitching market, in the words of a few league sources, is "nuts." The prices are sky-high and the fact that not-elite veteran arms are getting in upwards of $10 million have teams looking at alternative options.
That includes some low-risk, high-reward options in free agency. That also includes options on the trade market, including Dylan Cease and Shane Bieber.
The Guardians have an extensive history of trading players before having to pay them big contracts, evidenced by the Francisco Lindor, Trevor Bauer, Mike Clevinger, Carlos Carrasco and other trades. And Bieber, who is 28 and signed for two more seasons, will be an appealing trade target for teams considering he's controllable, his past performance, and that he's still arbitration eligible.
The odds of Bieber being traded aren't as high as Cease or Tyler Glasnow, but there's a real shot he's traded.
Odds: 5/10
Tyler Glasnow
Now, for the name that has dominated trade rumors all offseason: Tyler Glasnow.
There is a very, very, very real chance that Glasnow is traded. The remaining one-year, $25 million left on his contract makes him a very difficult piece for the small-market Rays to keep and considering that they are highly unlikely to keep him, trading him has always been the most realistic option.
Glasnow is drawing interest from about a half dozen teams, maybe more, including the Chicago Cubs and Cincinnati Reds, according to major-league sources. It's unclear what the asking price is for Glasnow, but considering his past performance and ability to be a frontline starting pitcher, the Rays should get a nice return in exchange for the right-hander.
Glasnow is as good as gone. He will not be in Tampa Bay next year, barring an unforeseen development.
Odds: 9.8/10.
