MLB Power Rankings of all 30 teams based exclusively on run differential.
One of the best indications of how well a team is playing is a look at their run differential. It's not always the best predictor because teams with identical records could have vastly different run differentials. We already see it in 2023. In this week's MLB Power Rankings, we invest all of our attention to how many runs each club has scored compared to how many they've given up.
Run differential is as simple as that. You calculate the number of runs scored minus the ones they've given up. It punishes teams that are blown out in every loss. It rewards those who just miss victory.
Ignoring wins and losses. Foregoing any placement in the standings. Throwing out every gut feeling about how well a team is playing or not. These are the MLB Power Rankings based solely on run differential.
30) MLB Power Rankings: Oakland Athletics at -124
The Oakland Athletics are so far behind everyone else in run differential right now it's not even funny. At -124, they own by far the worst run differential in baseball. They're just a game behind the Kansas City Royals for the worst record in baseball. The two actually played each other this weekend with the Royals coming out on top. The Athletics have issues well beyond just the poor play on the field. Sadly, it's looking like their time in Oakland ends with a whimper.
29) MLB Power Rankings: Kansas City Royals at -66
Only a victory better than the Oakland Athletics because of their win against them on Sunday, the Kansas City Royals somehow have a far superior run differential. This is more about how bad the Athletics are not the talent of the Royals. Make no mistake about it. The Royals are downright awful, they're just not the worst.
28) MLB Power Rankings: Miami Marlins at -56
Maybe the most deceptive record in baseball right now, the Miami Marlins have only recently fallen below .500. You'd never know looking at their run differential. They're getting hammered in losses. In wins, they're barely coming out on top. They are tied for second in the National League East but we can see how this club has a lot to improve upon. They've scored 116 runs. No team has been as unfamiliar with crossing the plate as them.
27) MLB Power Rankings: Chicago White Sox at -54
No. Seriously. The Chicago White Sox are this bad. Remember last year when they seemed built to win a championship? This is now the second consecutive year where they've broken the hearts of the fans and dug themselves into an early hole. Their run differential of -54 improved quite a bit on Sunday with a blowout victory against the Cincinnati Reds. Unfortunately, it's still one of the worst in baseball.
26) MLB Power Rankings: Detroit Tigers at -41
Let's get as many of the American League Central teams out of the way as possible. The -41 run differential for the Detroit Tigers comes as no surprise. While the pitching has managed to improve upon last year's failures, the offense is putrid. Comerica Park may need to adjust the dimensions ever further to help this team score runs more consistently.
25) MLB Power Rankings: Cincinnati Reds at -36
The Cincinnati Reds remain a problematic ball club but it's not all doom and gloom. They've actually developed a few promising players making them far more relevant this season than they were last year. Their placement at number 25 in this week's MLB Power Rankings based on run differential is about where they'd fall anyway. In fact, their expanded win/loss record based on run differential is the exact 14-20 they are.
24) MLB Power Rankings: Colorado Rockies at -35
Fresh from taking two out of three from the New York Mets this weekend with only a 1-0 loss on Friday night, the Colorado Rockies made up some nice ground in the run differential department. They still only have 14 victories and are well on their way toward some sort of a rebuild this summer. Meanwhile, fans in other cities can start dreaming about which soon-to-be free agents their general manager can target.
23) MLB Power Rankings: Philadelphia Phillies at -29
It's definitely surprising to see the Philadelphia Phillies this low in the MLB Power Rankings when we're basing it on run differential. They have a roster that looks like it can score runs. The pitching isn't half-bad either. Unfortunately, a couple of early blowouts and some poor performances by the bats have given them a far below-average record and run differential. They have time to figure things out. Maybe they can re-hire and then fire Joe Girardi again?
22) MLB Power Rankings: Washington Nationals at -27
It's definitely a moral victory for the Washington Nationals to have a slightly better run differential than the Philadelphia Phillies. Two runs isn't much of a difference, but with a growingly more competent pitching staff, there are some sunny days ahead. Josiah Gray and MacKenzie Gore are two stars of the show. This isn't just a pitching staff of Patrick Corbin and four other warm bodies.
21) MLB Power Rankings: St. Louis Cardinals at -19
If someone told you the St. Louis Cardinals had two more wins than the Kansas City Royals you'd swear only two games were played. The 11-24 Cardinals have a -19 run differential which projects them to be 16-19 at this point. That's not how it has gone. Bad bullpen performances and some tight losses have buried them early on. Only the Royals and Oakland Athletics have a worse record. Does a better than expected run differential count as a strong enough consolation prize? It shouldn't.
20) MLB Power Rankings: Cleveland Guardians at -18
The defending American League Central champions aren't off to a good start this year. Their 122 runs scored is among the worst. The 140 runs surrendered is one of the better totals around the league. This has been the Guardians' formula for years. Lean on Jose Ramirez for offense. Ask Shane Bieber to do amazing things on the mound. It hasn't worked yet. This year, those blueprints continue to hold them back from the ultimate prize.
19) MLB Power Rankings: San Francisco Giants at -17
The San Francisco Giants are exactly where they should be. A -17 run differential isn't glamorous nor is it awful enough for fans to plead with ownership to sell the team. One could even argue the Giants have overachieved slightly this season. The lineup is mediocre at best and the pitching staff is no prize. While teams like the St. Louis Cardinals and Cleveland Guardians look far more prone to turn things around, the Giants are meeting expectations.
18) MLB Power Rankings: New York Mets at -10
Are the New York Mets really in this bad of shape? A run differential of -10 sure seems to put them in a class well below where they should be. The pitching staff has been a mess this season and that's the main place to put the blame. It's not just injuries either. Max Scherzer looks like a shell of his former self. Fans are holding out hope he can figure it out. Otherwise, that $43+ million contract this year with a player option for the same next season is going to drive Steve Cohen mad.
17) MLB Power Rankings: San Diego Padres at -4
A win over .500 yet 4 runs below even in run differential, the San Diego Padres have been a bit of a disappointment. They're well within range of the division lead and with the lineup they have we'd have to assume they'll start hitting eventually. Their 145 runs scored are near the bottom in the National League. The saving grace has been the 149 runs allowed which is among the best.
16) MLB Power Rankings: New York Yankees at +3
Barely ahead of their Big Apple brothers are the New York Yankees. They're nearing the .500 mark with an 18-17 record. The offense has actually been the greater weakness for the Yankees this season. They've scored only three more runs than they have allowed. This team should be scoring much more. For the most part, they're getting enough out of the pitching. The bats, on the other hand, are letting them down.
15) MLB Power Rankings: Seattle Mariners at +10
Two wins in a row have put the Seattle Mariners back at .500. They're tied with the Houston Astros for third place in the American League West today. It's not ideal yet not nearly the end. The Mariners offense has been the weakness for them with only 148 runs scored. Meanwhile, the pitching has held the opponent to 137 runs. They aren't winning too many slugfests or coming up short on them either.
14) MLB Power Rankings: Arizona Diamondbacks at +11
Reality is starting to sink in for the Arizona Diamondbacks. Their early lead in the National League West has been handed over to the Los Angeles Dodgers. A +11 run differential still puts them in a good place. The offense has been the greater strength for the Diamondbacks. A young and exciting ball club, we do still need to see more before clearing our October calendars and a playoff spot.
13) MLB Power Rankings: Los Angeles Angels at +12
The Los Angeles Angels are playing good baseball. Their +12 run differential almost doesn't do it enough justice. They've had their share of problems. The pitching hasn't been as good as many projected. The offense has been good enough. Fans may remain timid about a possible midseason collapse like last season. Right now, their fate does look like it could swing in either direction.
12) MLB Power Rankings: Milwaukee Brewers at +17
Pitching for the Milwaukee Brewers has helped them to have a solid +17 run differential after 34 games. They're in an early dogfight with the Pittsburgh Pirates for first place. They trail the National League's biggest surprise by just a half-game. Could the difference be found in the run differential? Considering who is next on our list, maybe it is.
11) MLB Power Rankings: Pittsburgh Pirates at +18
It has been a disappointing week for the Pittsburgh Pirates. Losers of 7 straight, their run differential of +18 is still good but getting closer to 0. They play the Colorado Rockies next and that's their opportunity to improve their record and run differential. Last year's Pirates squad had one of the lower run differentials throughout the early part of the season with a record that didn't truly show their weaknesses. They may have some different problems in 2023. Their fast and furious start may have all been for nothing.
10) MLB Power Rankings: Houston Astros at +20
This year's Houston Astros just aren't as good as some in the past. Battling through some injuries and with a weaker overall roster, for them to own a 17-17 record and a +20 run differential is actually not such a bad thing. The Astros are definitely capable of doing much more than they have. Having allowed 129 runs, we can put a lot of the blame for their weak record on the bats.
9) MLB Power Rankings: Toronto Blue Jays at +20
The Toronto Blue Jays win the tie-breaker with the Houston Astros thanks to their 21-14 record. Also the owners of a +20 run differential, the outlook for the Blue Jays has been much more positive this season than it has been for Houston. Yes, their pitching has been weaker, however, their offense has been much more potent. The Blue Jays are a team that you can expect to win 10-7 on a regular basis. If it works, it works.
8) MLB Power Rankings: Boston Red Sox at +25
Surprised to see the Boston Red Sox this high? You're not alone. They've gone 8-2 in their last 10 games. Now the proud owners of a +25 run differential, the Red Sox have scored 208 runs this season. Rafael Devers has started to heat up and that has made the biggest difference. Despite the atrocious ERAs of each starting pitcher on the roster, the Red Sox are finding ways to win.
7) MLB Power Rankings: Minnesota Twins at +26
This is a familiar feeling. The Minnesota Twins had an underrated collapse after last year's trade deadline. This year does feel a little different. Their pitching has been masterful. They've allowed 126 runs which is one of the best in baseball. The Twins will need to get a little more offense to stay atop the division. The pitching staff shouldn't have to carry all of the weight.
6) MLB Power Rankings: Baltimore Orioles at +29
The Baltimore Orioles had a lousy offseason. Or did they? Sometimes the best moves you can make are none at all. The Orioles find themselves among the cream of the crop in Major League Baseball with a 22-12 record and +29 run differential. Their strong finish in 2022 should have fans believing this is sustainable. The only downside is they are in a division where everyone has a positive run differential at the moment and a record over .500. Keep it going, boys. Pretend that brake doesn't work. Call up Sandra Bullock and Keanu Reeves to drive the bus if you need to.
5) MLB Power Rankings: Los Angeles Dodgers at +43
Blink and you've missed the Los Angeles Dodgers getting red hot. They're atop the National League West. It's no joke either. Their +43 run differential is reflective of their success. They score a ton of runs and their pitching is pretty good, too. After a slow start to the season, the Dodgers have gotten on track. It's business as usual in the National League West.
4) MLB Power Rankings: Chicago Cubs at +46
At 17-17, you'd think the Chicago Cubs would have a run differential close to 0. At +46, they're actually among the best in baseball. Their pitching has been the main reason for it. With 122 runs allowed, they've given up the second-fewest runs. This wasn't the year too many people expected the Cubs to make the jump back into contention.
3) MLB Power Rankings: Atlanta Braves at +56
Only one team has won more games than the Atlanta Braves this season. Their 24-11 record is remarkable and going almost unnoticed because of some other impressive stories across the league. Their +56 run differential is the best in the National League. They score runs often and keep the opponent off the board. They're fresh from winning two straight against the Baltimore Orioles, the next team behind them in terms of total wins. There aren't too many unkind things to say about the Braves right now. They're looking unstoppable.
2) MLB Power Rankings: Texas Rangers at +85
It turns out the Texas Rangers aren't all pitching, no hitting. Owners of the second-best run differential in MLB and with a solid record right now that has them leading the American League West, they're exactly where they need to be among the best in baseball. The Rangers have scored 221 runs which is second in MLB right now. In what will be one of the strongest divisions in baseball this year, the Rangers are the early kings.
1) MLB Power Rankings: Tampa Bay Rays at +115
Just like the Oakland Athletics at the very bottom, the Tampa Bay Rays are running away with the best run differential at the top. Winning as often as they are definitely helps. Doing it with such authority creates even more distance. They're scoring a ton of runs and not allowing very many either. Their 110 runs allowed is the lowest in MLB. Their 225 runs scored is the highest. Do the math. They're the best there is.
