Los Angeles Angels free agent Shohei Ohtani appears positioned for a record-setting deal this winter. No player has hit the open market in the last decade who impacts the game at such a high level on both sides of the game.
Ohtani's prowess as both a pitcher and a batter makes him a unique case where his contract value, in a salary cap-less world, could see him earning upwards of $600 million based on some projections.
It's been widely speculated that he'll get the largest contract in MLB history, and likely a particularly long one, 10 years plus. But, maybe not? Recent growing buzz reported by MLB Insider at ESPN Kiley McDaniel suggests his contract may not be as straightforward as we think.
McDaniel reports that there is, "growing buzz," that Ohtani might want to sign a shorter deal (subscription required) and re-enter the market in 2026 and 2027. McDaniel says he thinks that might look like him signing a six-year deal with multiple player opt-outs he could leverage to re-enter the open market at an opportune time, namely, one where he's proven his post-surgery pitching is still worth paying top-tier money for.
McDaniel suggests that if he goes this route, the average annual value might be in the window of $55-60 million. If he plays out three years, that would equate to just $180 million, far short of the massive $500-600 million we've heard tossed around.
Would a shorter deal make sense for Shohei Ohtani?
Teams, certainly, would be open to the arrangement of a shorter deal with an AAV around $55-60 million. That may be slightly higher than the extremely long timeline a $600 million deal would cover, but long deals tend to be scary for owners since you never know what a player will look like in the tail-end years of the contract.
But does it make sense for Ohtani?
On the face, it doesn't seem like it. The only way it makes sense is if teams are balking completely on giving him a massive contract because of his impending UCL surgery that will likely keep him from pitching in 2024. Still, Ohtani has proven plenty on the bump and in an open market still likely commands above $50 million per year even with the unknown that is his arm after a second UCL repair.
But it all depends on what the value works out to and how the option years play out for him. Maybe he values the optionality in the future and would take lower AAV in exchange for an off-ramp later on. Ohtani, who seems to prefer a smaller market, is far from a typical professional athlete. Trying to understand his thinking might be futile.
Him signing a short-term deal would be the biggest shock of the offseason, but hasn't his entire career been a bit of a shock?
