Moderna Inc. raised its Covid-19 vaccine sales outlook for the year, finalizing contracts with Japan and several American health-care companies as the US government largely stops paying for the shots.
Moderna now sees sales of $6 billion to $8 billion, according to a statement Thursday, up from a previous prediction of at least $5 billion and in line with the analysts’ average estimate of $6.9 billion. The company is in talks with purchasers in the US, European Union and other parts of the world for more potential orders, and $1 billion in previously anticipated 2023 sales were pushed to 2024.
Shares of Moderna rose as much as 4.1% at the New York market open, the most intraday since July 12.
The forecast increase is a bright spot for Moderna, which has been struggling to appease investors now that the emergency phase of the pandemic is winding down. The company is turning to new products, such as the cancer vaccine it’s developing with Merck & Co., to take advantage of its messenger RNA technology.
What Bloomberg Intelligence Says:
“Moderna’s Covid-19 revenue guidance of $6-8 billion helps bracket expectations for 2023, but is in line with consensus at $7 billion. With 20% of the $5 billion of secured via Advance Purchase Agreements postponed to 2024, the company will need at least $3 billion-worth of additional sales to meet analyst expectations. A potential $500 million in the bag from Japan means Moderna is highly dependent on the risky and unknown level of demand in the US private market.”
— BI analysts Sam Fazeli and Max Nisen
Click here to read the research.
Jefferies analysts called the guidance a “mixed bag,” and Deutsche Bank downgraded its rating on the stock from “buy” to “hold,” citing high company costs with little revenue visibility. The shares had lost 39% this year through Wednesday’s close.
For the quarter, Moderna reported a loss of $3.62 a share and sales of $344 million. Analysts were expecting a wider $3.92-a-share loss and $322 million in revenue. The results mark Moderna’s first quarterly loss since the end of 2020 when its original Covid-19 vaccine was first approved.
Even though the biggest bolus of sales are behind, the US fall will still be an important milestone for Moderna. The company will compete with Pfizer Inc. in the US private market as the federal government stops buying the shots for free distribution. Overseas, Moderna recently signed a deal to work toward producing mRNA vaccines in China.
(Updates with shares, analysts’ comments and estimates starting in second paragraph)
