After a day off, the NBA Playoffs are back, and we get treated to Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals between the Los Angeles Lakers and Denver Nuggets.
While I lean towards Denver winning Game 1 at home where it is 40-7 this season (regular season and playoffs), I don't feel like laying the six points in this game.
So, that means it's a prop night!
I have a prop pick for both teams to get this series started on the right foot:
NBA best bets record to date
- NBA best bets record for 2022-23 season: 331-296-4 (+6.8662 units)
NBA best bets today
- Nikola Jokic OVER 50.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-125)
- Austin Reaves OVER 14.5 Points (-115)
Nikola Jokic OVER 50.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists
Anthony Davis is about as good of a matchup as you'll find for Nikola Jokic, but I'm not going to fade the two-time MVP with the way he's rolling right now.
In the series against the Phoenix Suns, Jokic's PRA numbers were out of this world:
Game 1: 48 PRA
Game 2: 60 PRA
Game 3: 64 PRA
Game 4: 68 PRA
Game 5: 54 PRA
Game 6: 54 PRA
So, after Game 1, Jokic pretty much smashed this total in every game against Phoenix. While Davis is a much better defender than anyone the Suns have, when he's off the floor, the Lakers have nobody to guard Jokic.
Darvin Ham is going to need to mirror AD's minutes with Jokic, and even if he limits his scoring, it may just make the Joker a more dangerous passer. Until he starts to cool down, Jokic is a must bet at this number.
Austin Reaves OVER 14.5 Points
Austin Reaves started slow in the second round, but he's scored 21, 15 and 23 points in his last three games.
The Nuggets may decide to put Murray (arguably their worst perimeter defender) on Reaves to start games, which could allow the rising star to cook offensively.
Reaves is averaging 15.4 points on 11.9 shots per game in the playoffs. If the usage stays similar, I expect the Lakers guard to be a threat to score 15+ points in this game.
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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
