It's late November, which means we are almost one month into the college basketball season. That Thanksgiving malaise is finally wearing off and holiday spirit is full steam ahead. So is the NBA Draft cycle.
Much has changed since the preseason. For freshmen especially, the first month is trial by fire. Some projected lottery picks are fading into obscurity. Others have gone from relatively unheralded to potential lottery picks in a blink.
Such is life for Carlton Carrington, the four-star freshman guard turned collegiate phenom at Pittsburgh. He's the star of this column, going from off the radar to No. 8 in the latest FanSided big board. Maybe it's too early to fully hitch your wagon to the Carrington hype train, but he certainly looks the part of a future NBA player.
Here's your weekly dose of stock up, stock down.
NBA Draft stock up: Carlton "Bub" Carrington, Pittsburgh
Holy moly. Bub Carrington is a dude. Maybe he's a flash in the pan, but probably not. The shooting splits may or may not be sustainable — .484/.432/.789 — but the process certainly is.
Carrington is 6-foot-4 with a tremendous first step and a knack for gaining separation off the dribble. He mixes speeds effectively and is comfortable in live-dribble or off-the-catch situations. He shoots comfortably from multiple steps behind the 3-point line. The pull-up middies are pure. He isn't the most advanced playmaker, but he can work the pick-and-roll and minimize mistakes. His 6.2 assists-to-1.7 turnovers ratio is probably the most encouraging stat of all.
He's averaging 15.2 points, 5.3 rebounds, and 6.2 dimes in 30.5 minutes as a full-time starter out of the gates. His first-ever college basketball game ended with a triple-double. He has brought serious juice to Pitt and he's going to keep surging up draft boards if his current pace continues.
NBA Draft stock up: Nikola Topic, Mega MIS
It's time to fully embrace Nikola Topic as a top-five prospect. In a field that lacks your traditional high-end talent, teams are going to be more willing than usual to overlook athletic limitations in favor of high skill and high feel. This is not meant to compare Topic to Luka Doncic, but there's no Deandre Ayton monster athlete in 2024. The crafty European guard who gets by on gear shifts and subtlety will defy ignorance.
Topic is 6-foot-6 with elite court vision and a preternatural sense of pace. He knows when to lull his man to sleep and when to slam the gas pedal. He's fairly quick on drives to the rim and he's full of tricks when it comes to clearing space for a pull-up jumper or floater. Bleacher Report draft expert Jonathan Wasserman went as far as to compare Topic to OKC's Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. That's extremely high praise, but it's a great reminder of how far tall, idiosyncratic shot-creating guards can go in the NBA.
NBA Draft stock up: Ryan Dunn, Virginia
Ryan Dunn, the 6-foot-8 sophomore from Virginia, is gaining real traction as a potential lottery pick. He has a ways to go offensively — NBA scouts will wince at 15.4 percent from deep — but the defense is next level. Dunn is a menace in passing lanes, the NBA Draft's preeminent roamer. No perimeter defender covers as much ground. Plus, he's a damn solid on-ball, point-of-attack stopper.
That, combined with enough open-court athleticism and simple finishes to get by on the other end, should have all attention on Dunn as a potential role player gem in a draft short on strong star bets.
NBA Draft stock up: Reed Sheppard, Kentucky
As expected, the best freshman at Kentucky has been ... four-star shooting guard Reed Sheppard from London, KY. Despite his lackluster physical profile at 6-foot-3, Sheppard has been a revelation for the Wildcats, averaging 10.8 points, 3.7 rebounds, and 3.5 assists on .667/.667/1.000 splits in 23.8 minutes across six games.
The shooting splits will come back down to earth eventually, but Sheppard is a 3-point sniper with the high feel and connective traits NBA teams covet in a potential role player. He's automatic off the catch, but he's also working pick-and-rolls and attacking downhill to create for teammates. The defensive activity pops, too. He is very much on the NBA track.
NBA Draft stock down: Ron Holland, G-League Ignite
He's standing strong at No. 1 on a lot of boards and it's far too early to panic about Ron Holland. Still, his safety at the top is more a product of his peers' inadequacy than his own performance. Holland and the Ignite are off to a bumpy start. He's averaging 15.7 points, 5.7 rebounds, and 2.1 assists on .429/.227/.444 splits — with a particularly ugly 4.6 turnovers.
Ball security has been a huge problem for the entire Ignite team, but Holland especially needs to slow down. He plays like an Olympic sprinter, which leads to brilliant flourishes of defensive playmaking (1.7 steals) and incredible athletic displays in transition. But, it also leads to rushed shots, ill-conceived passes, and sloppy handles. His self-creation upside is hypothetical until he can read the floor better and add new gears to his repertoire.
He's still a top-five lock right now, but it's fair to have doubts about how Holland's offense will translate to the next level. At least based on what we've seen so far.
NBA Draft stock down: Elmarko Jackson, Kansas
Freshman guards are typically volatile bets. Elmarko Jackson is an undeniable athlete and talent, but he's starting to feel more like a sophomore or junior NBA commit, rather than a surefire one-and-done. Part of that is limited opportunity — he's starting, but averaging only 22.0 minutes per game for No. 5 Kansas — and part of it is that classic rookie inconsistency. He's slashing .360/.200/.938, averaging 5.8 points and 3.8 assists with 1.7 turnovers.
There are positive indicators long term. The free throw success could preceed future growth in the 3-point department. Jackson remains a potent driver, blessed with an elite first step and the strength to initiate contact and finish through traffic. Sub out his field goal percentage for his 2-point percentage, .467, and the profile looks a bit rosier. Still not great, but not god awful. He's not a turnover machine either, which is promising in a young guard.
Jackson will need time to find his footing, but he's not a lost cause by any stretch.
NBA Draft stock down: D.J. Wagner, Kentucky
The immediate success of Reed Sheppard and Rob Dillingham has shined a bright spotlight on D.J. Wagner, who was billed as Kentucky's star point guard and next lottery pick. He still has time to regain form, but Wagner is slashing .410/.269/.762 and struggling to generate advantages to the extent he did in high school.
At 6-foot-3, Wagner is a bursty driver whose ability to shift gears and accelerate on a dime has always papered over grave 3-point concerns. But, if Wagner can't create angles and finish at the rim, his impact is greatly diminished. He's a walking paint touch, but defenders don't have to respect him behind the arc right now and his finishing craft has not translated to college — yet.
All of this comes with the 'yet' caveat, of course. It's too early to jump ship.
NBA Draft: College basketball games to watch this week
- No. 8 Miami at No. 12 Kentucky — Nov. 28 at 7:30 PM E.T.
A typical must-watch, marquee Kentucky matchup on ESPN. The Wildcats are flushed with potential NBA talent, but keep a special eye on Miami guard Wooga Poplar. He's a highlight-reel athlete, but a recent surge in 3-point shooting has opened up the floor and launced him into the first round conversation. Plus, Hurricanes wing Matthew Cleveland could face a few intriguing defensive challenges.
- No. 14 Texas A&M at Virginia — Nov. 29 at 7:15 PM E.T.
A chance to catch Ryan Dunn and his menacing defense on national TV against a ranked opponent. Plus, watch Virginia guard Reece Beekman, who has been on draft radars for a while. He's off to a slow start offensively, but the Cavaliers are a perennial winner in need of an early-season statement.
- Colorado at No. 20 Colorado State — Nov. 29 at 9:00 PM E.T.
It may not be as exciting as the football game, but the Colorado-CSU rivalry should translate well to the hardwood. This is a great chance to see Buffs freshman Cody Williams tackle a ranked opponent. It has been a compelling start to the season for the younger brother of OKC forward Jalen Williams. He's hitting his 3s, fluidly attacking the rim, and creating a lot of good chaos on defense. Williams is on the rise, for sure.
- No. 4 Connecticut at No. 5 Kansas — Dec. 1 at 9:00 PM E.T.
The Huskies are undefeated with the look of a contender. Donovan Clingan has been a beast in the middle and Stephon Castle looks the part of a lottery guard. Also on NBA Draft radars is Alex Karaban, who is surging with 16.0 points and 1.2 blocks per game as a redshirt sophomore. He's a flexible stretch-four who should test the staunch Kansas defense. On the other end, Kevin McCullar is another early-season riser. He has gone from elite defender to elite all-around player, upping his involvement as a ball-handler and slasher atop the Jayhawks' offensive hierarchy.
- USC at No. 11 Gonzaga — Dec. 2 at 10:00 PM E.T.
Isaiah Collier has been a standout for USC, but the Trojans have suffered a couple tough losses early in the campaign. This will be by far Collier's biggest test, facing a pro-style team with a ton of fringe NBA talent. Also monitor Kobe Johnson, the all-world defensive wing who is starting to generate first round buzz for USC. Bronny James is also nearing his return...
- Clemson at Pittsburgh — Dec. 3 at 2:00 PM E.T.
Watch. Bub. Carrington.
