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NBA Trade Grades: Diagnosing ESPN's surprising Victor Wembanyama trade proposals

2023-05-26 19:03
ESPN took on the challenge of formulating trade offers for the best NBA Draft prospect in recent history, Victor Wembanyama.Victor Wembanyama is the soon-to-be No. 1 pick in the 2023 NBA Draft. The San Antonio Spurs won the right to select Wembanyama on lottery night, positioning the French sens...
NBA Trade Grades: Diagnosing ESPN's surprising Victor Wembanyama trade proposals

ESPN took on the challenge of formulating trade offers for the best NBA Draft prospect in recent history, Victor Wembanyama.

Victor Wembanyama is the soon-to-be No. 1 pick in the 2023 NBA Draft. The San Antonio Spurs won the right to select Wembanyama on lottery night, positioning the French sensation as the heir apparent to Tim Duncan in the Spurs' illustrious line of star big men.

The Spurs should have absolutely no desire to trade Wembanyama. He is the best prospect since LeBron James — a 7-foot-5 center who can create his own shot at all three levels and protect the rim in equal measure. There has never been lower odds of the top pick being dealt.

That said… there's a difference between being the best prospect since LeBron and actually developing into the best player since LeBron. Wembanyama will battle health concerns tied to his rail-thin frame and he's not a perfect player, just closer than most. If the right mega-trade offer does come along… should the Spurs consider it?

ESPN pitched a few interesting ideas. Let's hand out some grades.

Grade: Spurs trade Victor Wembanyama to Orlando Magic

Magic receive: Victor Wembanyama

Spurs receive: Paolo Banchero, Jalen Suggs, No. 6 and No. 11 picks

Normally, the reigning No. 1 pick, a former lottery pick, and two future lottery picks is more than enough to merit interest from a rebuilding team like San Antonio. But Wembanyama is special. He's far too special for the Spurs to consider this trade in particular.

Banchero was an absolute beast in his first NBA season. He began the year at a torrid scoring pace and he mostly managed to maintain that pace all the way through, despite a few bumps in the road. He averaged 20.0 points and 6.9 rebounds, operated as the centerpiece of Orlando's offense, and won Rookie of the Year by a landslide.

There is no doubt that Banchero could, eventually, be the driving force behind a contender. He's 6-foot-10 with the strength to bully mismatches in the post and the agility to create from the perimeter. There aren't many good defensive answers for Banchero when the jumper's falling. One has to imagine the jumper will fall more as the years progress.

Jalen Suggs is a bullish defender and intelligent connective playmaker with untapped athletic potential. Not many drafts will have stronger options in the No. 6 and No. 11 spots than this year's draft. The Spurs are getting a lot here… and it's still not enough. Wemby is a potential franchise-maker. He will anchor San Antonio on both ends of the floor.

Magic: A+

Spurs: D+

Grade: Spurs trade Victor Wembanyama to Oklahoma City Thunder

Thunder receive: Victor Wembanyama

Spurs receive: Chet Holmgren, No. 12 pick, 2024 Rockets first-round pick (top-4 protected), 2025 76ers first-round pick (top-6 protected), 2026 Clippers first-round pick

There's more to chew on for the Spurs here. While it's slightly more challenging to mount the argument after Banchero's strong rookie season (and Holmgren's coinciding redshirt), Holmgren was the best prospect in the 2022 draft. He checks a few of the same boxes Wemby does: elite rim protection, mobile in space, three-level scoring potential, flourishes of self-creation. He would give the Spurs a much-needed defensive foundation in the paint.

The Spurs also receive the No. 12 pick and a mountain of future picks. The first big turnoff are the protections on Houston's 2024 pick and Philadelphia's 2025 pick. If you're trading the prospect of the century, you should at least have a chance of getting No. 1 again in the future. The Clippers' unprotected pick in 2026 is interesting, but there's no guarantee the Clippers (or the Sixers, or the Rockets) are actually tanking when those picks convey.

A late lottery pick, three possibly good picks, and Holmgren just isn't enough to move the needle when Wembanyama is involved. There is inherent risk in every player, and Wembanyama's thin frame does come with its share of concerns. The Spurs would be spreading out the risk over multiple picks (and Holmgren, another very skinny, now recently injured 7-footer) rather than placing all their eggs in one basket. But that one basket has the chance to deliver the Spurs a championship. He's that caliber of prospect.

For the Thunder, this trade is an absolute home run. OKC was already knocking on the door of the playoffs last season without Holmgren. Keeping last season's entire roster in tact, adding Wembanyama, and only sacrificing a few good-not-great picks to get him is the dream. But that's the issue — it's only a dream.

Thunder: A+

Spurs: C

Grade: Spurs trade Victor Wembanyama to Philadelphia 76ers

76ers receive: Victor Wembanyama, Raptors 2024 first-round pick, Doug McDermott, Devonte' Graham

Spurs receive: Joel Embiid

By far the most compelling of the proposed trades, the Spurs would be using Wembanyama to acquire the reigning league MVP. Despite his latest postseason flameout, Embiid basically guarantees 50+ wins in the regular season and at least a second round berth in the playoffs. He elevates his team drastically on both ends of the floor and, when healthy, he's arguably the most unstoppable scorer in the NBA.

There is an appeal to Embiid's brand of certainty. Persistent health issues aside, Embiid would cement the Spurs as a contender for the next half-decade. He would also get extremely valuable coaching from Gregg Popovich and the Spurs' development team. Embiid is 29 years old, but he has gotten better every season of his career so far. He's still growing, and the Spurs could unlock another level from an already top-5 player.

So, why are the Sixers even considering an Embiid trade? Well, that guaranteed second round berth has not turned into anything more for Philadelphia. Embiid has been hurt in pretty much every playoff appearance to date and the Sixers have lost in the second round five of the last six years (with one Al Horford-aided first round exit for good measure). With James Harden possibly on his way out the door, it's fair to wonder if the Sixers are capable of building a true contender around Embiid — or, frankly, if Embiid is capable of sustaining a true contender.

That second question might scare off the Spurs, but there is no guarantee Wembanyama reaches Embiid's current level. He has the potential to — he's a better prospect than Embiid was, and he has fewer health concerns than Embiid — but it's very hard to become a top-5 player and perennial MVP candidate. For all his flaws, Embiid is operating at a Hall of Fame level for Philadelphia.

In the end, the trade probably doesn't take hold because of timelines. The Spurs' roster is too young and there's no guarantee San Antonio's front office can acquire the pieces necessary to complement Embiid and build a winner around him. The Sixers would get the best prospect since LeBron to start their rebuild, and frankly, it's an appealing thought. But by that same token, the entire roster has been engineered around getting the most out of Embiid's present title window. Does acquiring Wemby without owning any of your future picks really make sense?

Sixers: C+

Spurs: C+

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