For most of Week 2, it looked as though we'd be losing money and dipping below .500. Then Sean McVay, in his infinite wisdom, decided to kick a meaningless field goal as time expired to preserve a cover and bring us to 3-3. Like Mike Tomlin, we intend to never know what it's like to lose more than we win. Overall on the season we sit at 7-5. It could be much worse.
DOLPHINS (-6.5) over BRONCOS
This line is a bit perplexing as the Dolphins have answered pretty much every question out of the gate and are quickly becoming a trendy Super Bowl pick. Mike McDaniel is an offensive wizard, Tua Tagovailoa has remained upright and lucid, and the receiving weapons are bountiful. Meanwhile the other side has Russell Wilson, who has looked like he's playing underwater and has lost all explosiveness, and Sean Payton desperately trying to back up all of that sick trash-talk and general trashing he did in the offseason. The only thing we can think of is that oddsmakers believe Miami will be sluggish after a Sunday primetime affair. But if they can't get up to lay a big number on an extremely wounded team with big personalities, then you're not a real contender anyway. Dolphins 38, Broncos 20
BENGALS (-2) over RAMS
Joe Burrow should be enjoying the fall of his life and instead all he has to fall back on is a monstrous contract. This offense has some real problems and they begin with the offensive line and its inability to allow enough time to push the ball down the field. Yet. Yet! We simply cannot begin to fathom a world where a team with such high aspirations begins the year 0-3 because that would likely mean no playoffs. To be clear, this is a terrifying proposition and this number stinks as it begs you to take the home team in primetime. So it won't be fun even if it proves to be the right side. Bengals 22, Rams17
LIONS (-3.5) over FALCONS
Those ski masks were such a stupid idea and that secondary appears to still have some serious issues. Reality came to Ford Field in droves and so did the injures. And yet we remain on a singular mission — to bet the Lions almost every week and win almost every single time. Watch this space, though, as getting burned two times in back-to-back weeks would be tough to stomach. Lions 28, Falcons 24
PATRIOTS (-2.5) over JETS
The first two games of the year suggest the Patriots are not a good team. But has Bill Belichick's squad fallen so far they can't even beat the tar out of the Jets on a Sunday afternoon? Our answer is absolutely not. If you thought all the Jets players got mad after the Cowboys loss just wait until Zach Wilson's brain gets turned into a pretzel by New England yet again and he throws a handful of picks en route to leading the offense to a field goal or two. Take the under and the points for this grim affair. Patriots 17, Jets 6
BEARS (+12.5) over CHIEFS
God help us for taking the Bears but this is just so many points to lay for a Week 3 game in favor of a team that has not shown any dominance to this point. The Chiefs' offense has gotten off to a very slow start this year and the Chris Jones/Travis Kelce combo is clearly not at full power yet. Patrick Mahomes hasn't yet figured out how to drop an avalanche of points on an unsuspecting defense with this receiving core. It's more of a slow burn right now which doesn't always mean big point totals. And a 1pm game against arguably the worst team in the league is not going to get the defending champs' blood hot. Give us a late cover by Chicago. Chiefs 30, Bears 20
SEAHAWKS (-6) over PANTHERS
The Seahawks remembered how to play offense in Week 2 and it feels unlikely the Panthers will be able to take advantage of Seattle's questionable offensive line, which should lead to another explosion of points. Bryce Young has gotten off to a slower start than his draft cohorts and Lumen Field is a supremely difficult place for a rookie QB to play. There's risk of a backdoor cover given the Panthers have scored a meaningless touchdown in the last two minutes of their first two games but Geno Smith should get rolling early and give his team enough breathing room to cover with ease. Seahawks 27, Panthers 16
This article was originally published on thebiglead as NFL Week 3 Predictions and Picks Against the Spread: Six Best Bets.
