A very solid trend is developing as the NFL season begins to take shape. We've gone 4-2, then 3-3, then 5-1 with our picks against the spread, meaning you haven't lost money backing us over any weekend. Entering Week 4 with an 12-6 record has put a little extra pep in our step. Let's keep on winning.
LIONS (-1.5) over PACKERS
If you've checked these out before, you know that we simply cannot stop riding Dan Campbell's magical bus as it rolls out, doing nothing but covering spreads at an unreasonable clip. Thursday night games are always a bit of a crapshoot and the injury report is unwritten like a Natasha Bedingfield song, but if something's not broken there's no reason to fix it. Jared Goff has looked professional, Jahmyr Gibbs is looking more and more like a top-end running back, and the Aidan Hutchinson-led front seven is succeeding at putting pressure on the opposing quarterback. Yes, Jordan Love authored a historic comeback at Lambeau against a staunch Saints unit but we simply don't know how he'll respond in his first foray into the national spotlight. It will be a 60-minute game but the Lions simply have more weapons. Lions 27, Packers 24
COWBOYS (-7) over PATRIOTS
America's Team hit a speedbump in Glendale and it was extremely surprising. Yet it sets up a classic Get Right game against a team with far less firepower. Yes, Bill Belichick will probably scheme up a defense that keeps things somewhat interesting. But come on, now. Smoke and mirrors can only get a team so far. Dak Prescott will want to make a statement and we see him making a very loud one. Cowboys 23, Patriots 14
BILLS (-2.5) over DOLPHINS
Okay. Putting actual financial resources against a team that scored 70 points and could have had more the week before is downright scary. Mike McDaniel is a certified genius and his offense is a work of art. Josh Allen can be careless with the football and a turnover never feels far below the surface. The weather should be ideal and the scoreboard busy for a wonderful shootout. Whoever has the ball last should win. Flip a coin and enjoy the sensory experience, trusting the home field will prove to be the difference. Bills 38, Dolphins 34
CHIEFS (-9.5) over JETS
We made an egregious error by not trusting the Chiefs to cover a big line last week and caused the only blemish on our record. It won't happen again. Fading bad teams against Patrick Mahomes is a consistent money-maker and fading the Jets with Zach Wilson under center? Even more so. Kansas City's defense is shaping up to be one of the league's better units and Mahomes, along with Travis Kelce, is gradually charging up to full power. This one will be over early and NBC executives will have three quarters to mourn what could have been with Aaron Rodgers under center instead. Chiefs 31, Jets 10
SEAHAWKS (+1.5) over GIANTS
After a weird opening game, the Seahawks' offense has clicked over the last two weeks as Geno Smith has led the unit to consecutive 37-point outings. The fact that they are underdogs against a Giants team that has struggled to put points on the board is a bit odd. Cross-country travel is always tough, to be sure, and New York hasn't had the easiest stretch of defenses to deal with, but the line still feels like a gift from the gambling gods. Take the road 'dog and flourish. Seahawks 30, Giants 20
PANTHERS (+3.5) over VIKINGS
The Panthers are probably going to roll with Andy Dalton again on Sunday. Their skill positions are weak and the defense lost arguably its most important player in Jaycee Horn already. This just has the feel of a game the Vikings should absolutely win and yet will struggle to do so mightily. Adam Thielen will inexplicably have the statline of his life in an all-time revenge game. Justin Jefferson will have 200 yards and multiple scores. Despite it all, this is coming down to a last-second field goal. Our bet is Miinnesota earning its first win of the year but it won't come easily. It never does for Kirk Cousins. Vikings 23, Panthers 20
This article was originally published on thebiglead as NFL Week 4 Predictions and Picks Against the Spread: Six Best Bets.
