The 2023 MLB Regular season is coming to an end in the coming weeks. The NL Wild Card has been in a very tight race for control. The current race contains the Philadelphia Phillies, Arizona Diamondbacks, Chicago Cubs, Miami Marlins, and Cincinnati Reds. All five of these teams deserve to make the postseason, but due to not having enough playoff spots, two of these teams will have to get eliminated.
No. 3 Contender who will make the postseason: Chicago Cubs
The Chicago Cubs currently hold a 45 percent chance of making the postseason, according to FanGraphs. If they make the postseason, they probably wouldn't make it far, but it would be amazing to see them have a magical run.
The Cubs have ten games remaining and are currently up half a game in the third wild-card slot. They have one game versus the Pittsburgh Pirates, three versus the Colorado Rockies, three versus the Atlanta Braves, and finish with three against the Milwaukee Brewers.
They have dominated the Pirates in the 2023 season with a record of 10-2, but they have struggled versus the Rockies in 2023 with a record of 1-2, with both of the losses coming in close games. The final two series will be challenging, as they have to play the Atlanta Braves and Milwaukee Brewers, which could lead to them not even making the postseason.
The Chicago Cubs have many good players, but they also have many players who could struggle in the postseason. They have many injuries, but no major players besides Marcus Stroman, who has moved to the bullpen while suffering from injuries. One of their biggest offseason signings, Jameson Taillon, has looked like a bust, holding a 7-10 record with a 5.27 ERA after signing a 4-year, $68 million contract.
No. 2 Contender who will make the postseason: Arizona Diamondbacks
The Arizona Diamondbacks currently hold an 84.3 percent chance of making the postseason, according to FanGraphs. They also hold a low 2.1 percent chance of winning the World Series. They deeply struggled after the All-Star break but have recently improved very much since.
The Diamondbacks don't deserve to make the postseason, but being up 1.5 games, it seems likely they will. They only have two good starters, Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly. When it comes to the bullpen, they have quite a few injuries, but they also have good ones like Paul Sewald and Kevin Ginkel.
They also need to improve massively offensively. They mostly rely on Corbin Carroll, Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Ketel Marte, Christian Walker, and Gabriel Moreno. They need to upgrade at multiple positions, which they have attempted by acquiring players like Tommy Pham and Jace Peterson.
The Diamondbacks have nine remaining games: three against the New York Yankees, three against the Chicago White Sox, and finally, three against the Houston Astros. They could struggle against the Yankees, but last season, they swept the White Sox 3-0. They could have a tough series versus the Astros too. With both of them in a close playoff race, it could end in a winner-takes-all situation depending on struggles for both teams.
No. 1 Contender who will make the postseason: Philadelphia Phillies
The Philadelphia Phillies currently hold a 99.8 percent chance of making the postseason, according to FanGraphs. The Phillies are currently up four games in the Wild Card and have pretty much secured a playoff spot. They won't win the division because of the Atlanta Braves, but they will clinch a playoff spot and also hold a 6.2 percent chance of winning the World Series.
The Phillies are set up for a deep playoff run, such as in 2023 when they went to the World Series, where they sadly lost to the Houston Astros. They've improved in multiple positions, such as acquiring Trea Turner this offseason, while also adding a massive piece to the starting rotation in Taijuan Walker. They also traded for Michael Lorenzen, but he hasn't worked out much besides a no-hitter for the Phillies.
They should also make a deep playoff run because their pitching rotation is one of the best, while also signing players like Trea Turner and calling up talent like Johan Rojas, who can play above-average defense to help the team win more games.
No. 2 Contender that will miss the postseason: Cincinnati Reds
The Cincinnati Reds currently hold a 21 percent chance of making the postseason, according to FanGraphs. I wouldn't bet on the Reds to make the postseason, but it would be nice to see this magical team make the postseason.
They only have eight games left on the season: three against the Pirates, two against the Guardians, and ending with three against the Cardinals. To clinch a postseason spot, they need to win the majority of their games and also hope others lose, now down one game in the Wild Card.
They hold a record of 4-6 against the Pirates, which needs to completely change if they hope to make the postseason. The Reds have played the Guardians in 2023 and hold a record of 1-1, which included them getting shut out in their first game. The Cardinals often like kicking teams out of playoff races and hold a 5-5 record versus the Reds, with many of the games coming down to the wire.
Even if the Reds made the postseason, they probably wouldn't make it far with how young and inexperienced their rotation is as well as the lineup. They have starters like Hunter Greene, Andrew Abbott, and Brandon Williamson, all of whom have been doing well in 2023, but they just aren't ready for the big time yet. They also have Alexis Diaz and Lucas Sims in the bullpen, who are amazing relief pitchers; they need more additions to be ready for a postseason run.
They have talented players in the lineup like Elly De La Cruz, but he just isn't looking good with constant strikeouts, hitting only .231 and having only 11 home runs in 90 games. They have others like Jonathan India, who they tried to trade away, but they don't have a player who can lead them to playoff glory. They will have to spend big money this offseason, which seems likely since Joey Votto's contract is now expiring, and they would instead buy out the 2024 club option and pay him $7 million instead of the $20 million.
The Reds have a young and talented team full of future All-Stars, but they aren't ready for the big time yet. They don't have much experience and would get dominated by a competent team in the postseason.
No. 1 Contender that will miss the postseason: Miami Marlins
The Miami Marlins currently hold a 47.6 percent chance of making the postseason, according to FanGraphs. While they are down only half a game, they could still make the postseason, but it's going to come down to the wire. If anyone can shock everyone and make the postseason, it's the Miami Marlins.
The Marlins have struggled dearly in 2023 since Sandy Alcantara fell off a cliff in his average performance. The Marlins are doing what they always do, which is get young pitching talent. They have probably one of the next best rotations in all of MLB with Sandy Alcantara, Jesus Luzardo, Braxton Garrett, Eury Perez, and Edward Cabrera.
All of those names except Alcantara are under 25 years old, so they are quite inexperienced. Eury Perez is only 20 and has some problems, such as not being able to pitch long into games. When it comes to the bullpen, they have many studs but are missing a closer, with the closer role moving from player to player. The best players in the rotation are Tanner Scott and Andrew Nardi. Even recently, they've been making moves by claiming Matt Moore off waivers from the Cleveland Guardians, but he is unable to pitch this offseason due to the rules.
Problems with the current talent cause them to miss the postseason
The Marlins have a young group of talented players in their lineup, which includes Luis Arraez, who for a while was chasing the .400 batting average, now down to .354. It also includes the King of the Postseason, Jorge Soler, who helped lead and win a World Series for the Atlanta Braves in 2021. This lineup also has two of the best young talents in Jesús Sánchez and Jazz Chisholm Jr.
In an attempt to make it to the postseason, they acquired two talents at the deadline, Jake Burger, who has demolished pitchers in Miami, and also Josh Bell, who has done the same. The Marlins are contenders, but they still will need many upgrades to the team. They have players like Joey Wendle on the team, and also need to acquire a catcher because they have Nick Fortes and Jacob Stallings, both of whom have fallen upon hard times.
The Marlins would be a fun team to see in the playoffs, but they don't have enough talent yet to make a deep run and will have to make several big moves this offseason to turn from pretenders into contenders.
