Norway’s underlying inflation accelerated for the first time in four months, cementing the prospect of another rate hike by the central bank next month.
The core inflation rate, watched closely by analysts and Norges Bank, rose to 6% in October, driven mainly by food, furniture and plane ticket costs, according to a statement from the statistics office on Friday. While that was above all economists’ estimates in a Bloomberg survey, the figure matched the central bank’s projection, made in September.
The data, which included faster headline inflation, is likely to fuel bets that Norway’s policymakers will stick to their plan of one more quarter-point key rate hike next month, extending an interest-rate hiking cycle that’s already the longest in the G-10 space of major currency holders.
A recent weakening of the krone, now the second-worst G-10 performer for the year behind the yen, has added worries about imported inflation, and salaries growing at a record pace could indicate a higher risk of a wage-price spiral.
“We believed food prices would continue to fall. We were wrong,” Nordea’s analysts Dane Cekov and Kjetil Olsen said in a note to clients. “A December hike is fully on with the krone now around 4.5% weaker than expected. We therefore now expect Norges Bank to hike in December.”
The krone strengthened against the euro following the news, trading 0.9% higher at 11.8625 per euro as of 8:51 a.m. in Oslo.
While Norges Bank Governor Ida Wolden Bache and other rate-setters last week kept interest rates on hold, as expected, they also said that another increase, to 4.5%, could be averted if they become “more assured that underlying inflation is on the decline.” They will still wait for the November inflation, among other data, to make up their mind.
Read More: Norway Keeps Rate Steady and Signals Last Hike in December
“The market sentiment pendulum is likely to shift back towards a 25 basis point hike in December for Norges Bank now even if we highlight that it is much too early to draw that conclusion,” said Kristoffer Kjaer Lomholt, head of FX and corporate research at Danske Bank A/S. “Not only do we believe that last minute pre-Black Week price hikes could revert but leading indicators also suggest that the domestic food price rebound in October will reverse in November.”
--With assistance from Joel Rinneby.
(Updates with analysts’ comments from fifth paragraph.)
