Are you biting your nails yet? Cause, that's what this league has done to everybody.
It's hard to believe, but only one team across the entire National Women's Soccer League is safely in the playoffs with just 180 minutes of football for each team left to play. Week 20 produced three contests decided by one goal, one gritty draw in Seattle, and two multi-goal shutouts from a road team. Discounting the San Diego Wave, who have already clinched, seven teams have at least a 25 percent chance of securing postseason football.
Only one team is mathematically eliminated from the postseason — the Kansas City Current, following Orlando Pride's narrow victory at BMO Stadium on Monday night. With a goal against Racing Louisville, the Chicago Red Stars are still hanging on by a thread. Even for a league known for its unpredictability, this is something out of a movie. Here is how the field ranks before week 21 begins, and another shake-up occurs.
NWSL Power Rankings ahead of match week 21
1. San Diego Wave
Since play has resumed after the World Cup, no team has been more in-form than Casey Stoney's San Diego Wave. Sure, the club fell to the Current last week at home. Going into Providence Park, and shutting out the Thorns more than makes up for that.
Jaedyn Shaw was once again brilliant on the flank, playing behind Rachel Hill on the right side for the majority of her 72 minutes. She contributed to a goal for the third time in her last five contests. Stoney's team has a 47.5 percent chance at securing the Shield for the first time in its club's history, the highest percentage of any team.
The addition of Ireland international Kyra Carusa from London City Lionesses has added another goal-scoring threat to a team filled with them. If it is able to capture at least one point on Saturday in North Carolina, a top-two finish should be almost guaranteed.
2. NJ/NY Gotham FC
Despite firing 22 shots against the Dash at Red Bull Arena, NJ/NY Gotham FC could not find a breakthrough. Lynn Williams and company had a chance to rise above the Thorns, but Jane Campbell and Michelle Alozie had other plans. It was the club's first loss on home turf since June 4 against the Wave.
It was a massive missed opportunity given what the club was able to create in the final third. Ball-watching defensively, and a questionable decision by Amanda Haught provided Houston two goals on just 0.3 xG. Jenna Nighswonger's missed penalty summed up Gotham's night. You can only hold the New York/New Jersey side out of the back of the net for so long. Expect a much more clinical side in week 21.
3. Portland Thorns
The defending NWSL champions may have dropped its second game in its last three league games, but there is not need to panic. The final two contests for Portland are on the west coast, beginning with an intriguing home fixture vs. NJ/NY Gotham FC. Creating chances never seems to be a problem, it is finishing them without the American international that is.
Sophia Smith returned to training last week ahead of the Wave game. According to Mike Norris, Smith is continuing to make progress after sustaining a mild MCL sprain. To make the postseason, the USWNT star may not have to step on the pitch. Barring anything absurd, the Thorns will be heading back to defend their league crown.
4. Washington Spirit
If you learned anything from this season, it is to never count out the Spirit. The club's ability to fight when down has been remarkable. After an extremely long wait, Mark Parsons and the Washington Spirit finally took all three points in a league contest. Its home triumph over KC was its first since June 18. Trinity Rodman converted her first chance in front of the net in any competition since her two goals against Wales before the World Cup. In stoppage time, she made sure her side was not going to settle for another draw. The sheer pace up top was too much for the Current's center backs to handle.
With the postseason getting closer and closer, Rodman finishing is the exact sight it wants to see. Though the club is just one point from safety, it will be one of just two teams in the current top-six heading into match week 21 with the momentum of a victory. Newcomer Ouleymata Sarr from Paris FC netted her first goal for the club with a rocket from outside of the box. Sarr on the left, and Rodman on the right with Hatch down the middle provides Washington a scary front three nobody would want to see this time of year.
5. North Carolina Courage
North Carolina Courage had the luxury of taking on just 10 players for an entire half. All it needed was a goal. You would bet on Sean Nahas' Courage to take the points. OL Reign's persistence prevailed. Nahas' team finished the contest with the final 13 shots, striking the woodwork once while firing five off-target. The talking point of that second half was Claudia Dickey. The 23-year-old Charlotte native denied Haley Hopkins in the 82' with a brilliant kick save.
Down by a goal early, Kerolin used her sheer will up front to cause chaos in the Reign backline. That calm finish puts the Brazilian one goal away from tying Portland's Smith for the league lead. With SD Wave coming to town this week, the Courage are going to need to be far more ruthless.
6. Orlando Pride
Seb Hines has created a potential postseason dark horse. Two straight victories in the league put Orlando Pride tied with OL Reign on points. Due to goal differential, Harvey's team remains in sixth place. Adriana's good fortune on the only goal at BMO Stadium last week is what teams on the outside need to get in.
For a club that has not seen postseason soccer since 2017, it sure looks composed down the stretch. In the offseason, the club not only lost its starting goalkeeper, but three of its top four goal-scorers moved on from Orlando. Through a combination of a quality draft class, and transfers from across the globe, Hines has the Pride magically in contention.
7. OL Reign
Even without Alana Cook, Laura Harvey's team stayed disciplined in defense, using six saves by Dickey to grind out a draw last week. One point was good enough to keep the Seattle outfit above the playoff line, for now. The club is going to have to salvage something at home without one of the team's two defenders who have started 17 or more league games.
The upcoming match against the Washington Spirit will potentially mark Megan Rapinoe's final contest at Lumen Field. The club is attempting to break the league record for the highest attendance given the circumstances. It can't be a Friday night filled with all celebrations though. The table doesn't allow for any relaxation this season.
8. Houston Dash
Sarah Lowdon has officially figured out what Sam Laity could not. Could it be time to start promotion talks? Maybe.
Just two contests into the second iteration of the Lowdon era, and the Houston Dash have scored three while conceding none in the process. Two goals by Nigerian Michelle Alozie allowed the Texas outfit to outperform its xG for the first time in the league since June 3. There could be an argument made that Jane Campbell is the most in-form goalkeeper in the league. She heads back to the Space City on Sunday having saved 22 shots while allowing just one goal over a three-game span.
Lowdon's team are just two points out of a postseason spot. If Houston can protect home turf against Angel City, there is the potential that the Dash could be heading into the final week with a top-six seed. That is still contingent on OL Reign and Orlando's cooperation.
9. Angel City FC
A little water was poured on red-hot Angel City on Monday night in LA. Angel City FC was riding an 11-game unbeaten run across all competitions before Adriana caught goalkeeper Angelina Anderson by surprise with a near-post strike. The defeat puts a slight dent in ACFC's hopes for a first playoff appearance, but not all is lost. Six players recorded two or more shots against the Pride. It is about making the most of those, especially when time is not on your side in October.
On Sunday, Becki Tweed's side encountered the team just above it in the table, the Dash. When Houston traveled to the West Coast, its offense was essentially non-existent. Campbell came up with four saves in a scoreless draw that saw the Dash fail to register a single shot on frame.
10. Chicago Red Stars
1.5 percent. It's like that icicle hanging from your gutter that is still there, but you can just see it is about to come crashing down. That is the state of the Chicago Red Stars' playoff hopes. Canadian Bianca St-Georges' emphatic strike at the near post put a dagger in the heart of Racing Louisville while keeping the Red Stars afloat.
Without Mallory Swanson, it provides chances for other to demonstrate their abilities. Rookie Penelope Hocking has impressed up front while Casey Krueger and Alyssa Naeher were living heroes against Racing. The crossbar was Chicago's friend last weekend, and if this dream is going to continue it has to do the same at KC on Saturday night.
11. Racing Louisville FC
For Kim Björkegren's team who a few weeks ago were in the Challenge Cup final, the hill to playoff soccer is getting even steeper. Against arguably the weakest side in the league, Racing Louisville could not figure out that final touch. It struck the woodwork twice within the first 30 minutes.
That was the kind of day Racing was experiencing. Though the odds sit at less than 6.5 percent, four points is still a realistic gap to make up in two games. It's about the little things at this point. The Challenge Cup was a display of how talented this team can be. In pressure-filled situations, can this side dig deep? It does not have to be perfect, nothing can be in this league. The result simply has to equal three points on Friday night in front of the home fans.
12. Kansas City Current
There was so much build-up after last season's championship run. Kansas City Current sit in the basement of the table on 22 points, possessing the second-worst goal differential in the NWSL. KC has an over 54 percent chance of capturing the "Wooden Spoon". Even in a campaign that was as competitive as this one, there still has to be a 12th-place finisher. While injuries among other things off the pitch could be to blame, the Current have struggled to hold on to leads. Three out of their last five losses have come when they have converted a chance first.
2024 is a new year. One that the franchise has been patiently waiting for. The world's first women's soccer-specific stadium will make its debut next year as the Current continue to show the league how women should be treated in sports. Missing the postseason will hurt, but there is a whole lot to be excited about in the "Paris of the Plains".
The NWSL returns for match week 21 tonight with two matches beginning with Orlando Pride at Racing Louisville 7:30 p.m. EST.
