The NBA season is back.
As we gear up for another 82-game marathon, it's time to reflect on the most contentious debate in recent league history — the MVP debate.
The three-headed hydra of Nikola Jokic, Joel Embiid, and Giannis Antetokounmpo has dominated the MVP race for the last five years. Embiid and Jokic have been first or second place, in some order, for three straight years. Jokic won two straight, and Giannis won two before that. And now, after years of near-misses, Embiid is the reigning MVP.
The 2024 race figures to be equally interesting. The usual candidates continue to stand out, but after years of the same debate, we will see if new names break into the conversation. Luka Doncic and Jayson Tatum have been "next up" for years. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Devin Booker are elite guards who should put up numbers on winners. Kevin Durant and LeBron James can never be truly discounted.
Generally, this award comes down to several factors — statistics, yes, but also the standings and, whether we like to admit it or not, the narrative. You would have a tough time convincing me that Joel Embiid won last season because he was "better" than Jokic. He won because Jokic won twice before, and it was Embiid's turn.
That's an oversimplification of a layered and wide-ranging debate, but how a player is positioned narratively within the NBA landscape matters. If the Mavs are out of the postseason again, we can scratch Doncic off the list. If Dallas runs away with the No. 1 seed... Doncic will probably have a new trophy for his cabinet.
Here are the five strongest candidates entering the season (with a few honorable mentions, who cannot be ignored).
Opening night 2024 NBA MVP power rankings
Honorable mentions: Stephen Curry, Luka Doncic, Devin Booker
The Boston Celtics are a strong candidate to finish with the best record in basketball, which gives Jayson Tatum a credible claim to the 'best player on the best team' argument that has won many an MVP in the past. Boston has a lot of established talent on the roster, but Tatum is the clear alpha for a perennial winner. At 25 years old, Tatum has already been to the Finals twice. There's a reason it feels like only a matter of time until he reaches the mountaintop.
Tatum averaged 30.1 points, 8.8 rebounds, and 4.6 assists on .466/.350/.854 splits last season. He's a legitimate All-Defense candidate on the wing, for good measure. He's not the most complete offensive player in the MVP race — primarily, he lacks playmaking equity compared to others in this mix — but we are nitpicking at that point. Tatum has made real strides as a passer and he's unequivocally elite as a scorer.
At 6-foot-8, Tatum is the quintessential wing scorer. He has deservedly been pegged in the Paul Pierce and Carmelo Anthony vein of offensive guru, but there's a case to be made that he's even better — at least in terms of all-around impact. Tatum has mastered his footwork in tandem with bursty athleticism, underrated strength, and a silky smooth pull-up jumper. He can shoot over the top, dance his way to a side-step, or explode to the rim, where he finishes with extreme finesse.
The NBA is very much a wing's league, and Tatum is probably the best wing in the game. His ability to blend craft with athleticism makes him a true treat to watch. That will factor into these conversations, either explicitly or subconsciously. Tatum is pure entertainment. He steps up in big moments, he takes the tough late-game shots for a team that spends half its time on national television. That stuff matters.
If the Celtics emerge in that first or second-place mix and Tatum continues on his skyward trajectory — and yes, there's still room to grow — it would not come as a surprise for the Celtics wing to claim his first MVP award.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander made the superstar leap last season, averaging 31.4 points, 4.8 rebounds, and 5.5 assists on .510/.345/.905 splits. The numbers say a lot, but maybe not enough. Gilgeous-Alexander also emerged, rather quietly, as a top-tier defender. Stronger than he looks and blessed with a rangy 6-foot-11 wingspan, Gilgeous-Alexander can erase passing lanes and completely stifle ball-handlers at the point of attack. The Oklahoma City Thunder's defensive credit tends to get directed at Lu Dort, but Gilgeous-Alexander is as good — maybe even better — all while being a one-man offensive engine.
OKC finished last season 40-42, good for the No. 9 seed and a play-in berth. OKC was one win away from the first postseason appearance of the current era. Now, the young core is a year older. Chet Holmgren arrives as the defensive anchor OKC desperately lacked in the middle. Vasilije Micic arrives as a former EuroLeauge MVP and potentially game-changing reserve. The Thunder, despite their bevy of picks and cavernous cap space, are ready to win now.
There's a difference between having the pieces and actually winning, of course. There is a tendency for young groups to struggle and OKC, despite the obvious talent, is still young. A lot will fall on Gilgeous-Alexander's shoulders. He is the leader, the centerpiece of a dynamic and uniquely built offense. Fresh off a bronze medal run with the Canadian national team, Gilgeous-Alexander is prepared to make another leap — from superstar to megastar, from top-10 to top-five — but it will require a full team effort to land OKC high enough in the standings for a legitimate SGA MVP push.
Market size is almost an unfortunate factor. Generally, voters are smart enough to look past TV ratings when a player is dominant (Jokic did win back-to-back MVPs in Denver), but the Thunder are not naturally positioned in the NBA limelight. Gilgeous-Alexander can match any candidate statistically, and he's a one-man highlight machine to boot, but it's a factor worth mentioning.
What cements Gilgeous-Alexander on these power rankings, despite extremely talented competition from Doncic, Tatum, and others, is his ability to play both sides of the ball and his value relative to his teammates. Gilgeous-Alexander is arguably the best isolation scorer in the sport, discombobulating defenders with sharp changes in speed and direction before deploying his unique length to carve out angles to the basket. He scores at every level (the 3-point progression is huge), he's a tier-one rim finisher at his position, and he will regularly leverage his gravity to create for teammates (even if his assist numbers end up muted due to OKC's unique breadth of ball-handlers).
Joel Embiid finally won his MVP last season. It was a contentious and often toxic awards cycle, but no person can honestly state that Embiid didn't deserve it. Whether you're Team Jokic or Team Embiid, there is no way around the historic season the scoring champ put together. It's important to remember the context of this award — it's about sustained regular-season dominance, not whether that dominance translates to the playoffs.
Embiid is probably the single most dominant scorer in the NBA right now. There's more to basketball than points, of course, but Embiid is a bonafide bucket. He compromises the defense with every touch, constantly commanding double or even triple teams at the elbow. Doc Rivers made the wise decision to unleash Embiid as a face-up scorer, rather than leaning on post-ups. The result was a more efficient Embiid, and notably, a more dynamic playmaking version of Embiid. He averaged 33.1 points, 10.2 rebounds, and 4.2 assists on .548/.330/.857 splits last season.
Passing has been Embiid's vice since he entered the league, but the 29-year-old has made legitimate growth in that department. He's processing the game quicker, making the right pass out of double teams, and leveraging his gravity as a driver to generate open looks for teammates. If he can continue that progress, especially in a season without James Harden, it's going to be impossible to keep him out of the race.
Embiid's reputation took a hit with yet another postseason failure, compounded by the sudden realization by half the NBA fandom that Jokic actually deserved his MVP awards. Now officially pegged as the "other guy" in that particular debate, Embiid will have a lot of hurdles to overcome en route to a second MVP award. But, we know how singularly dominant Embiid is. Without Harden (from the looks of it), the spotlight will be even brighter. The Sixers are still going to win a bunch of games and Nick Nurse appears fully ready to embrace Embiid not only as an offensive hub but as one of the game's great defensive anchors.
The two-way nature of Embiid's impact has always been an added bonus in these debates. Nurse is a defensive genius and Embiid is a one-of-one paint presence who can change the geometry of offenses with his length, strength, and anticipation skills. If the Philadelphia 76ers can put together another 50-win season with the Harden drama hanging over the franchise and Embiid putting together his best defensive season to date, he could join Jokic and Giannis in the back-to-back MVPs club.
Giannis Antetokounmpo has competition in the modern GOAT conversation with Jokic's ascent, but the Milwaukee Bucks' superstar remains a perennial threat to win this award. Milwaukee is another strong candidate to finish with the best record in basketball. The Bucks were the No. 1 seed last season and the roster didn't exactly get worse over the summer.
The biggest hurdle for Giannis, aside from the productivity of his peers, may end up being his newest teammate. The Damian Lillard trade elevates the Bucks' competitive ceiling, but it also dilutes Giannis' singular star presence on the roster. There is going to be a lot of "oh, he has so much help with Dame and Khris and Brook." Every MVP has help. James Harden averaged 21-6-11 on 60.7 TS% when Embiid won. But, there's definitely a chance Dame's presence as a legitimate superstar costs Giannis votes.
Even with Dame sharing the spotlight, however, there simply isn't a more consistent two-way force in the NBA. Giannis is on the shortlist of best defenders in the league and he gives maximum effort every night, despite his megastar status. He's a wrecking ball on offense, always attacking the rim with a head of steam. He doesn't get enough credit for his passing. Half the time he's a point guard running in transition like a 7-foot prime Russell Westbrook. The scoring is beyond compare. Nobody can punish size mismatches and muscle his way to points at the rim like Giannis. And every matchup is a size mismatch.
Last season, Antetokounmpo averaged 31.1 points, 11.8 rebounds, and 5.7 assists on .553/.275/.645 splits. The Bucks have perfectly optimized the roster around him, with a floor-spacing and rim-protecting center in Lopez, along with two elite pull-up shooters in Lillard and Middleton to carry the perimeter burden. Depth is a concern for the Bucks, but if anything that will bolster Giannis' most valuable case. New head coach Adrian Griffin is an unknown quantity, but it's hard to mess up the offensive strategy of letting Giannis cook.
Antetokounmpo has long earned fans with his competitive fire and gregarious attitude. He's one of the more lovable superstars in the sport, on top of being a complete machine on the court. It has been three years since his last MVP award, so it's about time for voters to circle back to the Greek Freak.
It's extremely uncommon to win three MVPs in a four-year span. That said, Nikola Jokic is good enough to make it happen. He has been the runaway best player in the regular season for a while. Now, he has the postseason resume to back up his reputation and the newfound respect of half the voting body who previously sided against the "analytics" candidate.
Of course, ever considering Jokic the "analytics" candidate was categorically ridiculous. Simply watching the Nuggets and checking the box score was enough to make clear his absolute stardom. There simply isn't a more impactful offensive talent in the association. Jokic scores with supreme efficiency at all three levels. He has an extremely credible argument for the mantle of best scorer and best passer. He manipulates defenders with bullish strength and balletic footwork. His touch is unmatched. Let him find the angle — any angle — and he will rifle a pass few others in basketball history have even thought to attempt. It generally lands right in the shooter's pocket.
The Denver Nuggets' offense was an absolute buzzsaw last season. The departure of Bruce Brown impacts Denver's depth, but Christian Braun looks more than ready to assume the sixth-man mantle, while young pieces like Zeke Nnaji and Peyton Watson should be able to step into more consistent roles. Even rookie Julian Strawther looks ready-made for Denver's system. The Nuggets are the favorites to finish atop the West again. So long as Jokic is on the floor, the Nuggets will maintain a sizable advantage over most teams night-to-night.
What makes Jokic special is the extent of his influence. Giannis and Embiid both elevate their teammates considerably by their sheer presence. The Sixers get a ton of open shots off of Embiid's gravity. Giannis generates plenty of looks by slicing down the lane and drawing the attention of all five defenders. Jokic is similarly front of mind for opponents, but he also makes a consistent effort to improve his teammates. He has mastered two-man actions with Jamal Murray. He will make the right pass, the extra pass, at every possible opportunity to land Denver the best possible shot attempt. The Nuggets' offense flows because of Jokic, and he's equally capable of the star-making, one-man takedowns when necessary.
Jokic averaged a truly absurd 24.8 points, 11.8 rebounds, and 9.8 assists on .632/.383/.822 splits last season. The big knock against him is defense, but Jokic is honestly a rock-solid defender. He takes plays off in the regular season (so does Embiid), but Jokic can leverage his strength in the post and his instincts never wane. He has great hands in passing lanes (1.3 steals) and he's a great defensive communicator. So, even his big flaw is greatly overstated most of the time.
