The 2023 NBA Draft class is one of the best in recent memory. That dude in San Antonio is the obvious standout, but there are several future stars peppered throughout. To add to the fun of this rookie class, last year's No. 2 pick, Chet Holmgren, will also play his first NBA basketball in 2023.
Safe to say the Rookie of the Year race is jam-packed. It's possible that Victor Wembanyama outclasses and outshines everyone in his orbit, but it's important to celebrate more than the best prospect since LeBron James. This race should celebrate the next generation of NBA stars. Do not be surprised if a few rookies are impacting winning more than expected out of the gates.
Rookie of the Year is a tough award to predict oftentimes because of the impact injuries and role uncertainty can play. Cade Cunningham was the No. 1 pick and consensus Rookie of the Year favorite, but he got hurt. Zion Williamson got hurt as a rookie, which paved the way for Ja Morant. Then, there's the role factor. Why did Scottie Barnes beat Evan Mobley? Because the Raptors were a postseason team, and the Cavs were not.
The "best" rookies don't always get the most freedom. Team context is paramount here. Wembanyama will, spoiler alert, essentially have free reign over San Antonio's offense. He will also function as their defensive backbone. Scoot Henderson will have plenty of freedom in Portland, though. Chet Holmgren might be the third or fourth-best player on his team right now, but the Thunder are going to win games. Those things matter.
So, let's dive head-first into the season's first Rookie of the Year power rankings. Here's who you should be monitoring.
Opening night NBA Rookie of the Year power rankings
Honorable mentions: Keyonte George, Brandon Miller, Dereck Lively II, Bilal Coulibaly
Ausar Thompson is going to start for the Detroit Pistons. Cade Cunningham and Jaden Ivey will naturally absorb most of the spotlight there, at least going into the season, but Thompson is a tier-one athlete who has already flashed major multi-dimensional upside in the preseason. Those concerned about the transition from Overtime Elite to NBA competition shouldn't be. Thompson is a winner.
At 6-foot-7, Thompson is the nominal starting small forward, but he grew up in a more classic two-guard role next to his brother. Thompson has razor-sharp handles and a nuclear first step. The 3-point shot is a work in progress, but progress is being made. With Cunningham and Ivey shouldering most of the ball-handling duties, Thompson is going to get plenty of clean looks from deep. He will also feast on backdoor cuts, which he clearly has a knack for.
The Pistons should also benefit from Thompson's defense, even as a rookie. He blows up plays with his 7-foot wingspan and elite burst. He already looks stronger than he was out of high school and he has been a regular presence on the glass for the Pistons in preseason action. He fights hard for rebounds and he can out-leap just about anybody. The effort level, combined with absurd athleticism, should allow Thompson to influence winning even in the early stages of skill development.
His jump shot is the only major concern, anyway. Thompson is a great ball-handler, a nifty passer — even at a full sprint — and he's already stuffing the ancillary categories of the stat sheet. Rookies generally need time to adjust, but very few 20-year-olds are as explosive, intelligent, and dedicated as Thompson. He's special.
A lot of backdoor lobs, grab-and-go transition possessions, and double-doubles lie in Thompson's immediate future.
Twinning!
Amen Thompson won't have the luxury of starting like his brother, but it won't take long for it to become extremely clear that Thompson is the best prospect — maybe even the best player — on the Houston Rockets' upstart roster. Ime Udoka will fall in love with the intangibles, not to mention the unmatched athleticism, nutty playmaking instincts, and major defensive upside Thompson provides.
Where his brother is probably a top-10 or so athlete in the NBA, Thompson might claim the No. 1 spot. That's an impossible-to-define category, but Thompson's size, explosiveness, and coordination are truly difficult to comprehend. He will bend time and space like a dragonfly, darting through cracks in the defense before deploying unthinkably complex finishes at the basket to evade rim protection.
He has already splashed a couple of pull-up 3s in the preseason, which is a huge development. Thompson's rim pressure and playmaking were frightening enough when he was a non-shooter. If defenders have to get on the perimeter and match Thompson stride for stride, it's game over. He has one of the best first steps in the NBA.
A lot of attention was rightfully paid to Wemby and Scoot atop the 2023 draft class, but the Thompson twins profile as very possible future All-Stars — maybe more than that. It was a loaded lottery class. The Rockets have a lot of depth and a mandate to win. Fred VanVleet is going to steal a lot of ball-handling reps from Thompson. And, despite those non-ideal circumstances, it's going to be difficult to keep Thompson out of the mix here.
He's going to shine, even in a limited role.
The Portland Trail Blazers officially cleaned house to pave the way for Scoot Henderson to assume the alpha mantle in Damian Lillard's place. He will have a surprising amount of help — Anfernee Simons is a breakout candidate at guard, Jerami Grant is a 20-point scorer, Deandre Ayton is due for a career year, Malcolm Brogdon is the reigning Sixth Man of the Year, Shaedon Sharpe is a dude — but make no mistake. The Blazers will go as Henderson goes.
After a strong season with the G League Ignite, expectations are understandably high for Henderson as a rookie. Portland won't win a bunch of games in such a crowded Western Conference, but frankly, Henderson's expectations should probably be ratcheted up a bit. He is the best point guard prospect in years. At such a pivotal position — a position naturally inclined toward flashy counting stats and highlight moments — Henderson should mount a very strong awards campaign, even if he runs into unusually strong competition.
Henderson is built like a Grecian statue at 19 years old. He's already stronger than he has any right to be, bulldozing his way through contact for finishes at the rim. With a blazing first step at his disposal, Henderson can weaponize sudden changes in speed and direction before climbing the stairway to heaven. He fell back on mid-range jumpers a lot last season, but he's a remarkable finisher who should improve his shot selection in a more refined role.
His presence alongside Simons in the Portland backcourt should be mutually beneficial. Henderson will be the point guard, but he won't be overly burdened as a creator. Simons can help shoulder the workload, simultaneously allowing Henderson to expand his repertoire off the ball and save his energy for the defensive end.
Rookie point guards hardly ever play good defense, especially in Henderson's workhorse position. But, his strength is a genuine weapon. Matisse Thybulle has opined glowingly about Henderson's two-way upside as he continues to figure out the extent and limitations of his singular physical gifts.
Henderson has a hearty competitive fire in his belly. He wants to impact winning both ways. He's going to put up the numbers and the highlights to garner ballot consideration. Plus, he's going to win over a lot of fans very quickly with his attitude.
The Oklahoma City Thunder are going to win games this season and Chet Holmgren will be a big reason why. Beyond the entertainment value of two lanky, supremely skilled 7-footers vying for Rookie of the Year honors, Holmgren is going to back up his candidacy with stats and winning impact.
OKC already finished one win shy of the postseason in 2023. The roster is remarkably balanced for such a young group. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the MVP engine and the driving force behind OKC's success, but there was one key chink in the armor last season: the center position. The Thunder didn't have the size to combat bigger teams or the rim protection to stop talented drivers from feasting at the rim.
Problem solved.
Holmgren may not handle the physicality of Joel Embiid or Giannis Antetokounmpo well, but nobody does. He is going to change the geometry of opposing offenses with his 7-foot-6 wingspan, lateral movement ability, and impeccable defensive timing. Holmgren seldom misses a rotation and he's not a center who gets lost in space. He will stick hip-to-hip with guards on the perimeter and he can overcome the strength deficit with sheer reach.
And, as J.J. Redick put it, Holmgren has some s**t to him. The dude competes his tail off both ways. He's eager to embarrass. He will attack mismatches on offense, weaponizing his elegant footwork and remarkable hand-eye coordination for finishes in the paint. He can stretch defenders out to the 3-point line, slice down the middle with a drive, or score from the post. He's also an underrated passer, who could pay dividends working out of two-man actions with OKC's star guards or pushing the tempo in transition. OKC is a young team built to run, run, run.
In general, Holmgren is an answer to OKC's prayers. It's why he was the target with the No. 2 pick last season. SGA and Josh Giddey will benefit immensely from a vertical threat on offense. On defense, Holmgren's rim protection will further empower OKC's elite collection of perimeter bloodhounds. Lu Dort, Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams, Cason Wallace — those guys can all take more risks knowing Holmgren is there to clean up messes in the paint.
If the Thunder are a top-five or -six seed with Holmgren living up to his potential in the starting five, he's going to place highly in these rankings. We have seen redshirt rookies of his sort thrive time and time again.
Alas, we arrive at the inevitable destination. Barring injury, it's extremely difficult to imagine Victor Wembanyama losing this award. The San Antonio Spurs are due for a better record than last season, but even a losing campaign shouldn't tank Wembanyama's candidacy. He looks the part of a day-one star who is going to profoundly impact the Spurs in every aspect of the game.
Frankly, defense is probably the root of Wembanyama's campaign. It's rare for rookies to approach even league average on defense. The center's job is particularly complex and layered. It takes a lot of fine-tuning to protect the rim at a high level... unless you're 7-foot-4 with an 8-foot wingspan. Wembanyama is prone to getting beat on the perimeter or turned around inside, but it hardly matters. He can recover, unlike any other player. Get used to a perimeter player scooting past Wembanyama at the 3-point line, thinking they have a clear path to the rim, and then getting their shot sent into the stands.
The offense will obviously factor into Wembanyama's case as well. He's preternaturally gifted for a player his size, blessed with unreal hand-eye coordination and extremely nimble feet. He will elegantly traverse tight spaces off the dribble before kissing a shot off the glass with absurd touch. He can score from every level and every angle. It's difficult, nearly impossible to properly contest his jumper. Push Wembanyama off his spot, and he will simply go over the top or around his defender. With him, there isn't really a set "spot" or foot orientation.
As his jumper gets more consistent, it will become more and more difficult to poke holes in Wembanyama's arsenal. He was knocked occasionally for his passing in France, but he's already dropping absurd dimes in the NBA preseason. If he's buying into quintessential Spurs basketball and embracing movement, with or without the ball, it's essentially game over for the league. Especially once his teammates catch up to him.
Wembanyama has DPOY potential (this season maybe?) and he's going to average something in the 20-10-5 range, it feels like. Maybe more. The Spurs will wisely lean into Wembanyama's stardom from day one. He is the undeniable, unavoidable frontrunner here.
