LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA: The Texas-based network of movie theaters, Flix Brewhouse, faced a difficult scenario in the summer of 2022 as there were no movies in August, the peak of blockbuster season. This summer, things are going to be different as exhibitors struggle with a slew of big-budget releases. 'Barbie', 'Oppenheimer', 'Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny' and 'Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One' will release one after the other, leading to a high-stakes competition.
'Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny' releases on June 30, 'Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One' on July 12, 'Barbie' on July 21 and 'Oppenheimer' on July 21. All four movies have substantial budgets and depend on hefty ticket sales to make a profit, as per Variety.
How will 'Barbie' beat 'Mission: Impossible 7' and 'Oppenheimer' at the box office?
Some forecasts show 'Barbie' to emerge victorious. Christopher Nolan has chosen to release 'Oppenheimer' under Universal Pictures out of frustration with Warner Bros. In retaliation, Warner Bros set the release date of Greta Gerwig's 'Barbie' on the same day, hoping to derail 'Oppenheimer'. Due to the spike in demand for 'Barbie' pre-sale tickets at his cinemas, Chris Randleman, Flix Brewhouse's chief revenue officer, is very excited about the film. "I think it’ll be the true breakout of the summer. Everyone can survive. We have enough screens," he said.
Souirces reportedly claimed that 'Barbie' may beat 'Oppenheimer' and overtake 'Mission: Impossible 7' as well. Tom Cruise has his own grievances, claiming that both the movies had reportedly taken up his summer screens.
'Mission: Impossible 7' may cruise through box office
'Mission: Impossible Dead Reckoning Part One' is the first of a two-part film series that will bring Ethan Hunt's story to an end. Cruise was reportedly angry that the competition against his action flick would rob it of valuable theater time. However, the previous movies in the franchise did well so he need not be too worried. The last-released movie, 'Fallout', made approximately $800M in 2018, making it by far the highest-grossing 'Mission: Impossible' movie. 'Dead Reckoning' has a great chance of exceeding that figure and possibly touching $1B.
Despite Nolan's reputation as a director, none of his films since 2014's 'Interstellar' have earned over $700M. Similarly, Gerwig's biggest hit, 'Little Women', narrowly reached the $100M mark. It's likely that many 'Mission: Impossible' fans may return to see how Ethan's story ends.
What are the box office predictions for 'Indiana Jones 5' and 'Oppenheimer'?
The initial box office forecasts for 'Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny' showed a dramatic decline as compared to the franchise 2008 predecessor, 'Kingdom of the Crystal Skull' with an opening weekend of about $60M, as per The Wrap. According to sources, 'Dial of Destiny' may do well with older audiences who grew up watching Harrison Ford as Indiana Jones, but not so well with younger audiences for whom 'Crystal Skull' was the only 'Indiana Jones' film that they ever saw in a theater.
According to box office analysts, the movie's early performance in the country was more akin to the James Bond movie 'No Time to Die,' which debuted at $55M in October 2021 and ended up earning $160M domestically and $774M worldwide. Another example being mentioned is 'Mission: Impossible — Fallout', which debuted in the summer of 2018 at $61.2M and went on to gross $220M domestically and $790M worldwide.
'Oppenheimer' is among the few thrillers aimed at adults to have a significant marketing drive in this day and age, so the potential for counter-programming is high.
Paul Dergarabedian, a senior analyst at Comscore, reportedly said that the month-long period from 'Indiana Jones 5' through 'Barbie' and 'Oppenheimer' was one of the most competitive in recent memory. "This will be a stress test for the theatrical marketplace in the most important moviegoing season of the year. The stakes are incredibly high," he said.
