Maybe the two best teams in baseball occupy the same division. The Tampa Bay Rays are the only team with over 50 wins at 51-24 and the Baltimore Orioles are third in the majors in wins at 44-27. These division rivals will meet for a quick two game set starting tonight in Tampa Bay.
For the first of this mini series the Rays will hand the ball to Tyler Glasnow for the fifth time this year. In his previous four starts he is 2-0 with a 3.43 ERA. The Orioles will counter with Kyle Bradish who is 2-3 in 12 starts with a 3.90 ERA.
The Rays are home favorites and for good reason tonight, so let's get into the odds.
Orioles vs. Rays odds, run line and total
Orioles vs. Rays prediction and pick
Tampa Bay is happy to be home after going 3-4 on the west coast. The Rays are a staggering 31-7 at home which is why they're such big favorites even against a divisional opponent that was playing well before dropping two of three to the Cubs. On the road the Rays have scored 193 runs and have hit 55 home runs with a .779 OPS, but at home they've scored 222 runs with 62 home runs and an .827 OPS in just one more game. That means a big night offensively could be in store though Tampa is 17th in team OPS in June and 20th in homers with just 14.
The Rays might not be the only team putting up crooked numbers in this one though. Tyler Glasnow has a 4.23 FIP and allowed six hits and 10 walks in 5.1 innings last time out. His expected ERA is actually 6.86 in the small sample of four starts this season and his walk rate is his highest since 2017 with the Pirates while his strikeout rate is the lowest it has been since 2018.
I think there is potential for a very high scoring game tonight and the early lines have the total set at 7.5 so I'm pouncing on the over while the value is still there, but I still like the over up to 8.5 if the line moves that way.
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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change
