Once upon a time, the Buffalo Bills were touted as Super Bowl favorites. Seven weeks in, they've fallen down their pedestal and sit second in the AFC East with a 4-3 record, including a loss to the New England Patriots who have already lost five games.
Is the sky falling in Buffalo? Not necessarily. But since this is Overreaction Monday, the Bills' latest loss to the Patriots could be a sign of more bad games to come.
The Bills' offense still ranks at the top of the league in multiple statistical categories; Josh Allen ranks second in EPA per play, something that won't change too much despite his ugly pick at the start of the Bills-Patriots game.
Looking at the Bills' offensive plays against the Pats, Buffalo was able to convert seven times on third and fourth downs, according to The Athletic (subscription required), and generated positive EPA per play in Foxboro all game.
It was the defense and special teams that struggled in Week 7, a surprising breakaway from the usually elite units of years past. In those recent years, the Bills' defense was one to be feared, one that often made up for offensive inconsistencies. Now, with injuries taking their toll, the defense can no longer compensate for Josh Allen and the offense's occasional shortcomings. Allen has nowhere to hide. He's exposed, and since the injury-plagued defense is unlikely to improve this year, it's up to Allen to win games for his team.
And he has. He's just... slow to start sometimes, which can put the Bills in quick-sinking holes.
Bills' Josh Allen, Ken Dorsey need to shake things up in 2023
Early in the season, scoring touchdowns was a breeze. Allen and the Bills lifted a pinky finger and put up over 37 points a game from Week 2 to Week 4. Then came the disappointing loss to the Jaguars. The lucky break against the Giants. And now, the third loss of the season against New England, the third consecutive game in which the Bills' offense struggled to get a humming and harmonious rhythm going.
This new concerning pattern of slow starts could stem from a fundamental disconnect in the offensive scheme, whether it's second-year offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey failing to adapt to opponents' defensive plans or Josh Allen rashly resorting to backyard football.
Under Dorsey, one dynamic part of Allen's game has virtually vanished: the running aspect. Compared to 2022 when Allen averaged 7.8 rushing attempts per game, he's now averaging 4.1. Clearly, the Bills don't want to risk Allen getting hurt on an ill-advised run, as he does have the tendency to rush headfirst into traffic with reckless abandon.
But decreasing all those designed runs have also made the Bills' offense, well, boring. Allen's physical gifts and talents naturally make him an uber-dangerous threat on the ground -- use that. Exploit that. Sprinkle in some creativity and unpredictability when things start to go stale.
We're not trying to do Dorsey's job here, however, doling out a healthy amount of criticism feels fair. In the last three games, the Bills came out with blank guns against beatable teams, two of which only had one win at the time. If Buffalo isn't careful, it could find itself in a tough AFC seed staring down another one-and-done in the postseason.
Six years into the Josh Allen era, the star quarterback and the Bills are still looking for their happily ever after.
