Peru’s economy shrank in August for a fourth month in a row, extending its recession as analysts begin to grapple with the possibility the economy may contract in full-year 2023.
Peru’s economy fell 0.63% in August compared to a year earlier, surprising economists who had been expecting a 0.2% contraction. The economy grew 0.8% compared the previous month, according to national statistics institute INEI.
Peru’s finance ministry has repeatedly promised economic recovery later in the year, only to have to slash its growth forecast, currently at 1.1% for 2023. Finance Minister Alex Contreras first said the economy was suffering only from temporary shocks caused by unrest and bad weather, but has since acknowledged the economy is still not recovering.
Peru was Latin America’s fastest growing major economy for much of this century but has now become an underperformer on the back of protracted political instability. Peruvian President Dina Boluarte has struggled to revive the economy, and her approval rating stands at just 16% according to Ipsos. Worse, Peru is expected to face the El Nino weather pattern in coming months, which could further upend its agricultural and fishing industries and drag growth.
Analysts have most recently revised their expectations for Peru. Bloomberg Economics now expects Peru’s economy to contract 0.1% in 2023, the first yearly contraction in 25 years outside of the pandemic.
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“Growth in the 1H was weaker than we had expected and showed a larger drag from political instability on activity and domestic demand,” wrote Felipe Hernandez of Bloomberg Economics.
Two large Peruvian consultancies have also announced negative growth forecasts in recent days. Macroconsult sees the economy falling by 0.2% while the Peruvian Economics Institute (IPE) sees it falling by 0.3%.
