Last-minute 2023 PGA Championship predictions of the bold variety as we take a look at what will happen at Oak Hill less than 24 hours before the start.
In less than 24 hours, 2003 champion at Oak Hill, Shaun Micheel, will take to the first tee at the spot of his lone major championship victory to get the 2023 PGA Championship started. And frankly, that's too much time. Because in the interim of making picks, dissecting the course and event, and just building anticipation, that's afforded us unwelcomed time to start overthinking things.
We've gone from tired to wired over the past few days looking at the 2023 PGA Championship. That doesn't mean we still don't stand behind expert picks and best bets this week, just that there are other things that we think now too — some of those being stronger feelings about our PGA Championship ride-or-dies, some newfound favorites for this week, and more.
So with the opening tee shot of the 2023 PGA Championship almost here, let's put some of those new thoughts into stone with five last-minute bold PGA Championship predictions
PGA Championship predictions 2023: 5 bold calls at the last minute
5. Jason Day misses cut at the PGA Championship after winning the Byron Nelson
Jason Day broke a five-year winless drought last week at TPC Craig Ranch, holding off a host of challengers, including Scottie Scheffler, to take the crown at the AT&T Byron Nelson. Given that and his overall form this season, people have been loving the Australian as a live possible winner at Oak Hill.
Don't put me in that bag. In fact, give me whatever the opposite is.
Day has been undeniably great and, on the whole, could be a solid fit this week for the PGA Championship. However, his vertigo had returned recently and we're seeing the effects of that as he said on Wednesday that he's not seen the course and won't before his first round.
It may not be the first time he's done that but, for a course that is promising quite the test, that's not a good feeling. Instead of contending, I think we see Day show some fatigue and the lack of familiarity, which will ultimately lead to a missed cut this week at Oak Hill.
4. Max Homa earns his first Top 10 in a major at 2023 PGA Championship
There has been an undeniable jump from Max Homa to being one of the elite players in golf. The only thing holding him back from wholly affirming that status is real contention in a major championship.
To date, Homa has just one finish inside the Top 20 at a major, incidentally at the PGA Championship last year (T13). Beyond that, he hasn't finished better than T40 in a major. For him to reach that elite status, he has to get better than that in the biggest tournaments of the year.
Oak Hill is going to demand ball striking, long and accurate driving, and a great short game. This is a place that should be perfect for Homa and he's started to find his form again recently after some down weeks. He's clealry been motivated to prove himself and, while a win would be nicer, his first Top 10 in a major will have to suffice.
3. Matt Fitzpatrick ends up in the final group on Sunday at PGA Championship
While there were people early in the week at Oak Hill trying to compare this venue to Winged Foot, more detailed breakdowns have started to look at The Country Club in Brookline as one of the best overall comparisons. And who won the US Open there (and the US Amateur years ago too)? That would be Matt Fitzpatrick.
Perhaps because of his injury earlier in the year, Fitzpatrick has faded from golf consciousness a bit over the past few months, but he's proven that he's healthy again, and not just with winning the RBC Heritage. Over his last 16 measured rounds, he's gaining 1.58 strokes with his ball striking and more than 0.7 with his putting. He's an all-around player who should fit this perfectly.
So given that Southern Hills comp and the form Fitzy is quietly showing, he's going to contend to win his second major championship at the 2023 PGA Championship.
2. Viktor Hovland makes it three straight Top 10 finishes at majors
While Collin Morikawa was winning two majors and Matthew Wolff contended at Winged Foot, people were waiting on Viktor Hovland to join his peers by contending in one of the big four — it just hadn't come to fruition — but it's starting to.
Hovland was in the final group at The Open Championship last year at St. Andrew's and was close to the mix at Augusta this year, registering two straight Top 10 finishes in majors, which happen to be his two best finishes in majors.
Now we come to Oak Hill, a place that should suit him. Moreover, he's been overall playing perfect golf to succeed here with his ability to be dialed on approach into small greens and as a long, accurate driver. He still needs to take another step to win, but he'll be on the first page of the leaderboard for the third consecutive major week.
1. Rory McIlroy gets major with third PGA Championship win
As a parody of myself with precisely zero self control and a strong willingness to abandon all logic, I've once again arrived on Rory McIlroy winning the 2023 PGA Championship at Oak Hill.
The last two times that we've seen Rory was The Masters and Wells Fargo, which resulted in a missed cut and T47. He's not been in form, he's clearly struggling to deal with off-course things mentally — evidenced by skipping the RBC Heritage — and there's a reason he's not among Rahm and Scheffler at sub-10/1 odds.
And yet, when I think about a course that requires long driving with an emphasis on long carries too and a course that is going to play extremely long, I can't help but think about how that fits the best version of McIlroy. It would also be oh-so-fitting for Rory to get back to winning majors for the first time in nearly a decade when he's been in bad form and no one is truly expecting it.
This is probably going to be immensely wrong, but rest assured that I've now convinced myself of it.
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