Poland’s central bankers postponed next month’s interest-rate meeting, an unexpected move that shifts a potentially landmark decision to cut rates back by a week.
The rate-setting Monetary Policy Council will hold the gathering Sept. 12-13, later than previously scheduled, according to a calendar on the National Bank of Poland’s website. The Warsaw-based institution didn’t make a specific announcement of the change and a spokesman didn’t immediately provide an explanation.
Central bank chief Adam Glapinski said last month that the 10-member MPC could cut the benchmark rate by 25 basis points as early as September if inflation continues to ebb, the first downward move in more than three years. Forward-rate agreements, derivatives used to bet on future rate levels, indicate nearly three quarter-point cuts over the next six months.
The rescheduling, a rare occurrence, drew scrutiny since it takes place during a heated election campaign, in which the ruling Law & Justice party will struggle to maintain a parliamentary majority.
The newly scheduled meeting puts the decision just short of a month away from the Oct. 15 contest. Piotr Matys, a senior foreign-exchange analyst at In Touch Capital Markets Limited, speculated that the move may be meant to help Law & Justice in the final stretch.
“A different set of data could be far more valuable for the MPC and Governor Glapinski: opinion polls ahead of a closely fought general election,” Matys said. The panel could cut rates and “strongly” indicate that further easing will be possible “if a positive scenario unfolds in elections,” he said.
Glapinski, a close ally of Law & Justice’s powerful leader Jaroslaw Kaczynski, has repeatedly denied that central bank decisions are politically motivated and asserted the independence of monetary policy.
A minority of MPC members have argued that it’s too early to begin reducing borrowing costs since inflation, which peaked at 18.4% in February, is still high at 10.8%. None of the three most vocal dissenters were appointed by the ruling party, marking a divide on the panel.
The MPC will hold another meeting Oct. 3-4.
