Pro Picks is a weekly column where AP Pro Football Writer Rob Maaddi shares his picks for upcoming games. For all previous Pro Picks, head here.
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The Philadelphia Eagles are flying high after a comeback win in their Super Bowl rematch against Kansas City and have an NFC championship rematch coming up against San Francisco.
Sunday’s game against Buffalo sets up for a classic letdown.
The Eagles have the best record in the NFL and are the first team since the 2005-06 Colts to start 9-1 two years in a row.
The Bills have been a major disappointment this season at 6-5.
The Eagles are clearly the better team, but it’ll be difficult to match the emotion and intensity after facing the Chiefs, especially in a short, holiday week coming off a Monday night road win with a more important game against the 49ers looming ahead.
The Eagles are 3-point favorites, according to FanDuel Sportsbook. Pro Picks likes the more desperate team.
UPSET SPECIAL: BILLS, 24-23
PITTSBURGH at CINCINNATILine: Steelers minus 1 1/2
Maybe a new offensive coordinator and play-caller will get Kenny Pickett and the Steelers (6-4) going. The Bengals (5-5) turn to Jake Browning with Joe Burrow out for the season.
BEST BET: STEELERS, 22-16
MIAMI at NEW YORK JETSLine: Dolphins minus 9 1/2
The first Black Friday game features Tua Tagovailoa and Miami’s high-octane offense against the Jets (4-6) and their stingy defense. If only Aaron Rodgers was under center for New York to face the first-place Dolphins (7-3). Instead, Tim Boyle makes his first after replacing Zach Wilson.
DOLPHINS, 24-16
NEW ENGLAND at NEW YORK GIANTSLine: Patriots minus 3 1/2
Mac Jones or Bailey Zappe will start for the Patriots (2-8) who somehow are road favorites despite their dismal record. The Giants (3-8) aren’t much better but Tommy DeVito led them to a win last week.
PATRIOTS, 23-18
JACKSONVILLE at HOUSTONLine: Jaguars minus 1 1/2
This is an unexpected battle for first place in the AFC South. The defending division champion Jaguars (7-3) were supposed to be in this position. The surprising Texans (6-4) are in playoff contention thanks to rookie sensation QB C.J. Stroud and first-year head coach DeMeco Ryans.
JAGUARS, 27-23
NEW ORLEANS at ATLANTALine: Falcons minus 1 1/2
The first-place Saints (5-5) and the Falcons (4-6) face each other again in Week 17 in a game that could determine the NFC South. The winner this week gets a clear advantage. Desmond Ridder is back as Atlanta’s starting QB. Derek Carr began the week in concussion protocol so it could be Jamies Winston under center for New Orleans.
FALCONS, 22-20
CAROLINA at TENNESSEELine: Titans minus 4
Rookie No. 1 pick Bryce Young and the Panthers (1-9) are having a miserable season. So are the Titans (3-7). At least losing helps Tennessee get a better draft pick. Carolina’s first-round pick belongs to Chicago.
TITANS, 21-20
TAMPA BAY at INDIANAPOLISLine: Colts minus 2 1/2
The surprising Colts (5-5) are in playoff contention, but made a stunning move this week to release three-time All-Pro linebacker Shaquille Leonard. The Buccaneers (4-6) are only in the playoff mix because they’re in a weak division.
BUCCANEERS, 24-23
KANSAS CITY at LAS VEGASLine: Chiefs minus 9 1/2
Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs (7-3) aim to bounce back after beating themselves against Philadelphia. They’ve got issues on offense, especially in the second half. The Raiders (5-6) have won both of rookie QB Aidan O’Connell’s home starts.
CHIEFS, 24-16
LOS ANGELES RAMS at ARIZONALine: Cardinals minus 1 1/2
Kyler Murray has made the Cardinals (2-9) more competitive. The Rams (4-6) are hanging in the playoff mix thanks to their defense.
RAMS, 20-17
CLEVELAND at DENVERLine: Broncos minus 1 1/2
Even with rookie QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson, the Browns (7-3) are a contender because Myles Garrett and the defense have been dominant. Russell Wilson and the Broncos (5-5) have won four in a row and the defense has completely turned things around since giving up 70 points in Week 3.
BRONCOS, 19-16
BALTIMORE at LOS ANGELES CHARGERSLine: Ravens minus 3 1/2
Losing tight end Mark Andrews hurts the offense, but the Ravens (8-3) have a real chance to hold onto the No. 1 seed if they win the games they’re supposed to the rest of the way. The underachieving Chargers (4-6) have been a major disappointment mostly because of a defense so bad even Justin Herbert can’t rescue them.
RAVENS, 27-24
CHICAGO at MINNESOTALine: Vikings minus 3 1/2
Joshua Dobbs and the Vikings (6-5) try to rebound after a turnover-filled game ended their five-game winning streak. Justin Field returned and invigorated the offense, but the Bears (3-8) blew a big lead and couldn’t hold on to upset Detroit.
VIKINGS, 24-21
GREEN BAY at DETROITLine: Lions minus 7 1/2
Pro Picks blew this one. We had the Lions winning 27-17. The Packers upset them, 29-22.
WASHINGTON at DALLASLine: Cowboys minus 12 1/2
Pro Picks got this one right. We had the Cowboys winning 31-16. They routed the Commanders 45-10.
SAN FRANCISCO at SEATTLEPro Picks picked the 49ers 26-17. They won 31-13.
Last week: Straight up: 8-6. Against spread: 7-7
Overall: Straight up: 105-62. Against spread: 91-70-6.
Best Bet: Straight up: 8-3. Against spread: 5-5-1.
Upset Special: Straight up: 7-4. Against spread: 8-3.
Thursday: Straight up: 10-4. Against spread: 10-3-1.
Monday: Straight up: 8-5. Against spread: 9-3-1.
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