Pro Picks is a weekly column where AP Pro Football Writer Rob Maaddi shares his picks for upcoming games. For all previous Pro Picks, head here.
___
Bust out the dog masks, Philly.
The Eagles (10-1) are home underdogs against the San Francisco 49ers (8-3) in an NFC championship rematch on Sunday.
Despite coming off impressive comeback wins over Kansas City and Buffalo, the Eagles are just the second team in the last 20 years to be a home underdog with at least a .900 winning percentage and have their starting quarterback healthy in Game 12 or later. The only other one was Pittsburgh vs. New England in 2005 AFC championship. The Patriots won that one.
Jalen Hurts has played at an MVP level for Philadelphia but he's facing a tough defense that's ranked fifth overall.
The 49ers and Brock Purdy are healthy and playing at a high level following a three-game losing streak.
San Francisco is a 2 1/2-point favorite, according to FanDuel Sportsbook.
Pro Picks planned to take the 49ers but is going with the Eagles because coach Nick Sirianni will make sure to motivate his team and stress the lack of respect they're getting.
UPSET SPECIAL: EAGLES, 26-24
KANSAS CITY at GREEN BAYLine: Chiefs minus 6
Patrick Mahomes plays his first game at Lambeau Field and the Chiefs (8-3) could take over the No. 1 seed in the AFC with a win. Jordan Love and the Packers (5-6) have won three of four to climb into the wild-card race.
BEST BET: CHIEFS, 27-16
LOS ANGELES CHARGERS at NEW ENGLANDLine: Chargers minus 6
If Bill Belichick is coaching next year, his best option might be the Chargers (4-7). So, he should be extra motivated to lead the Patriots (2-9) to a victory and help improve Los Angeles’ draft positioning.
CHARGERS, 24-13
ARIZONA at PITTSBURGHLine: Steelers minus 5 1/2
The Steelers (7-4) offense finally got going last week after offensive coordinator Matt Canada was fired. The Cardinals (2-10) have averaged just 11.1 points on the road this season.
STEELERS, 23-16
DENVER at HOUSTONLine: Texans minus 3 1/2
A five-game winning streak has the Broncos (6-5) in the AFC playoff picture. The Texans (6-5) are right there thanks to quarterback C.J. Stroud’s impressive rookie season. He’ll be without starting left guard Tytus Howard, who suffered a season-ending injury.
BRONCOS, 19-17
DETROIT at NEW ORLEANSLine: Lions minus 4 1/2
The Lions (8-3) aim to rebound from a Thanksgiving loss to the Packers. The Saints (5-6) have lost two in a row, but are in the chase for the division title in the weak NFC South. Behind QB Jared Goff, the Lions are 14-8 against the spread after losing the previous game.
LIONS, 27-20
INDIANAPOLIS at TENNESSEELine: Colts minus 1 1/2
Colts QB Gardner Minshew has won three straight games for the first time in his career, but Indianapolis (6-5) won’t have RB Jonathan Taylor. The Titans (4-7) are 7-3 as a home underdog since 2021 under coach Mike Vrabel.
TITANS, 20-17
ATLANTA at NEW YORK JETSLine: Falcons minus 3
Getting Aaron Rodgers back at practice should motivate the Jets (4-7) to win so he would have reason to return in a few weeks. The Falcons (5-6) lead the NFC South after snapping a three-game losing streak. Atlanta has only covered the spread six times in its past 22 games.
JETS, 13-12
MIAMI at WASHINGTONLine: Dolphins minus 9 1/2
Tua Tagovailoa and the high-flying Dolphins (8-3) will still have zero wins against winning teams after this game. Tagovailoa is under .500 against the spread on the road in his career. The Commanders (4-8) are coming off a beatdown in Dallas and looking to avoid another embarrassment.
DOLPHINS, 30-22
CAROLINA at TAMPA BAYLine: Buccaneers minus 5 1/2
Maybe a new coach will inspire the Panthers (1-10). They’re facing a team that could be in the market for a new coach, too. The Buccaneers (4-7) have lost six of their past seven. Bucs QB Baker Mayfield is 13-24-1 against the spread as a favorite.
BUCCANEERS, 23-20
CLEVELAND at LOS ANGELES RAMSLine: Rams minus 3 1/2
The rebuilding Rams (5-6) are a wild-card contender with a new playmaker in RB Kyren Williams. Joe Flacco could be starting for the Browns (7-4) with Dorian Thompson-Robinson in concussion protocol. Cleveland’s stingy defense gave up 169 yards on the ground in a loss at Denver last week.
RAMS, 17-16
CINCINNATI at JACKSONVILLELine: Jaguars minus 8 1/2
The Jaguars (8-3) make their first appearance on “Monday Night Football” since 2011. Coach Doug Pederson is a prime-time king. He’s 21-8 in night games, the best record for any head coach over the past 20 years. The Bengals (5-6) continue life without Joe Burrow.
JAGUARS, 26-16
SEATTLE at DALLASLine: Cowboys minus 9
Pro Picks nailed this one, selecting Dallas to win and Seattle to cover. The Cowboys won 41-35 on Thursday night.
Last week: Straight up: 11-5. Against spread: 8-7-1
Overall: Straight up: 115-66. Against spread: 98-76-7.
Best Bet: Straight up: 9-3. Against spread: 6-5-1.
Upset Special: Straight up: 7-5. Against spread: 9-3.
Thursday: Straight up: 10-4. Against spread: 10-3-1.
Monday: Straight up: 8-6. Against spread: 10-3-1.
___
AP NFL: https://apnews.com/hub/nfl
