The National League MVP Award is one that's captivated the baseball world with Ronald Acuna Jr. and Mookie Betts seemingly swapping places in first and second every other night. Underratedly, the NL Cy Young race is just as exciting with five legitimate candidates.
The Chicago Cubs have surprised many with their 74-64 record, and they find themselves in the second Wild Card spot with less than one month to go. They're closer to the top Wild Card spot and to the NL Central-leading Brewers than they are to falling out of the race, which puts them in a great position to make the postseason for the first time since 2018.
One of the reasons the Cubs have been able to have this great year is because of their emerging ace, Justin Steele. The 28-year-old had his breakout last season with a 1.48 ERA in eight second-half starts, and has seen that carry over into this season as he's been one of the National League's best pitchers. He's without a doubt supplanted himself into the top five of the Cy Young race. Here's what those rankings would look like.
5) Ranking the top 5 NL Cy Young contenders: Zac Gallen of the Arizona Diamondbacks
Another surprising team in the NL this season has been the Diamondbacks, and Zac Gallen is a huge reason why. The right-hander finished fifth in the NL Cy Young balloting last season and is on track to do the same again with another fantastic year.
Gallen has gone 14-7 with a 3.48 ERA in a league-leading 29 starts and 178.2 innings pitched. He's third in innings pitched, fifth in strikeouts, fifth in WHIP, and seventh in ERA in the National League.
If this list was made just a couple of weeks ago, Gallen might've been first on the list. He had a 3.11 ERA after delivering six strong innings against the Rangers on August 22, but two rough starts since have him falling down the rankings.
Gallen has emerged as one of the better pitchers not only in the National League but in all of baseball, and he'll continue to lead the Diamondbacks for years to come.
4) Ranking the top 5 NL Cy Young contenders: Spencer Strider of the Atlanta Braves
It's hard to find a pitcher that's more fun to watch in all of baseball than Spencer Strider. Despite throwing two pitches a whopping 92.9% of the time this season, Strider is virtually impossible to hit when he's on.
Armed with a fastball averaging 97.3 mph this season and a slider inducing a whopping 57.1% whiff rate, Strider has two of baseball's best pitches. He uses those weapons and the occasional change-up to strike out a whopping 38% of the batters he faces. He leads the league (by 44!) with 245 strikeouts, and has fanned 13.8 batters per nine.
We've established that Strider is the best strikeout artist in the game today, but his 3.56 ERA is what makes Strider fourth in the NL Cy Young leaderboard. Rough starts against bad teams like the Mets, Tigers, White Sox, and Pirates have caused Strider's ERA to really inflate, which is certainly unfortunate.
The toughest pill to swallow for Strider is that he actually leads the league with a 2.81 FIP and a 1.054 WHIP. His 2.95 xERA also suggests that he's been unlucky, but voters will look at results more than expected stats (rightfully so).
Strider's ridiculous strikeout numbers are why he's even in the top five to begin with, and if he has a dominant finish who knows how high he can realistically climb. His ERA is probably too high for him to have a realistic shot.
3) Ranking the top 5 NL Cy Young contenders: Kodai Senga of the New York Mets
The New York Mets have arguably been the most disappointing team in all of baseball this season. They entered the season with World Series aspirations, yet they underwent a firesale at the deadline which included trades of aces Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer.
The Mets have disappointed, but Kodai Senga has been one of the few bright spot for New York. Senga's $75 million contract gave him high expectations entering the season, but you never really know how a pitcher who had never thrown a pitch in MLB before would do. After all, it took Shohei Ohtani until 2021 to put together a good and healthy pitching season.
Senga has not only met expectations, he's shattered them. The right-hander has gone 10-7 with a 3.08 ERA in 25 starts and 143.1 innings pitched. He was an all-star, and has been one of the more consistent pitchers in the game for the last couple of months.
Senga is most known for his "ghost fork" and it's easy to see why, as it's been one of the best pitches in baseball this season. He has held opponents to a .113 average with a whopping 60.2% whiff rate with that pitch which leads the majors.
His walks are a bit high, but that's come down a lot since the beginning of the year. His ERA is half a run higher than the top two candidates which hurts him, but with how well he's pitched the gap can easily be bridged.
2) Ranking the top 5 NL Cy Young contenders: Justin Steele of the Chicago Cubs
With the way Steele finished last season maybe he shouldn't have been such a surprise, but Justin Steele has been not only one of the best pitchers in the National League, but in all of baseball.
A lot of the talk this season surrounding Cubs pitchers had been revolving around Marcus Stroman who was sensational in the first half, but Steele has taken over as the team's unquestioned ace, and deservingly so.
The 28-year-old has gone 16-3 with a 2.55 ERA in 26 starts and 152 innings of work. He's allowed just seven home runs in those innings and leads the league with 0.7 HR/9. He also leads the league with a 168 ERA+. He was an all-star, and is helping lead the Cubs in their quest to the postseason.
Steele just delivered his best start of the season and arguably the best of his career on Monday afternoon against the Giants. He pitched eight brilliant innings allowing just two hits and two walks while striking out 12. He dominated another NL Wild Card contender and outdueled Logan Webb, another outside Cy Young candidate.
The main thing holding Steele back is the fact that he missed some time due to injury. Even with that being said, he only has three fewer innings pitched than the guy I'd deem the leader at this moment, so Steele has every chance to take that top spot.
1) Ranking the top 5 NL Cy Young candidates: Blake Snell of the San Diego Padres
We've seen Blake Snell at his best before, as he won the Cy Young in 2018 with the Rays. From 2019-2022, he was a different guy, posting a 3.85 ERA in 85 starts. He saw his walks spike, and had trouble getting deep into games as a result.
The walk issues have remained prevalent this season, and he's had his fair share of short starts, but for the most part, Snell has been completely dominant for most of the season.
Snell got off to a rough start, posting a 5.48 ERA through April and after a bad outing against the Red Sox in mid-May, his ERA sat at 5.40. In his last 19 starts however, he's been untouchable.
Snell has an absurd ERA of 1.31 in 19 starts and 119 innings pitched since May 25. He has 153 strikeouts in those starts, and the dramatically underperforming Padres are seven games over .500 when he pitches. In ten of those 19 starts Snell has allowed zero earned runs. Yes, more than half of the time he doesn't allow a single earned run. He's allowed three runs or fewer in all 19 starts, allowing three in just two of the starts.
Yes, that stretch is ignoring the rough first month and a half for Snell, but his overall numbers are phenomenal as well. He has a 2.50 ERA in 28 starts and 155 innings pitched. He leads the NL in ERA and is second in strikeouts. He's only 12th in innings pitched and has walked too many, so I can understand ranking him lower because of that, but his other numbers are just extraordinary.
The Padres might be virtually out of the postseason race, but Snell is right in the thick of the hunt for his second Cy Young award.
