It's been a tale of two games for the Rays and Mariners in Seattle. The Rays won the first game 15-4, but dropped the second 8-3.
Tampa Bay needs to get past the elite pitching of Luis Castillo, but the team has an emerging star in rookie Taj Bradley on the bump. Can the best team in baseball bounce back after a rare loss and win in the rare spot as underdogs?
Here are the odds and our best bet for Rays vs. Mariners on Sunday:
Rays vs. Mariners odds, run line and total
Rays vs. Mariners prediction and pick
Tampa Bay has been an underdog 13 times this season, and has gone 6-7 in those situations, but I'm going to trust them on Sunday.
Castillo has some concerning underlying metrics, posting an xERA of nearly a run higher than his actual ERA (2.86 vs. 3.75). He is still an All-Star level pitcher, but Castillo's been able to strand a ton of runners on base, over 80% on the year.
That won't work against the Rays, who are tops in the big leagues in wRC+, which quantifies the quality of run scoring chances teams generate. Tampa Bay is the wrong team to face after skating by for several starts in a row.
I also am bullish on the Rays getting a strong start from Bradley, who has become one of the most dangerous strikeout threats in the big leagues, punching out more than 12 batters per nine innings. However, his ERA has trended higher at 4.58, but I'll attribute some of it to poor variance as his xERA is 3.75.
The Mariners have struggled to hit all season long, batting just .230 and 24th in big league OPS. I believe Bradley can outduel Castillo with the help of Major League Baseball's best offense.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
