The Tampa Bay Rays and New York Mets split the first two games of their three-game set this week, leaving a rubber match on Thursday afternoon.
New York will send Tylor Megill (4-2, 4.02 ERA) to the mound against Rays rookie Taj Bradley (3-0, 3.52 ERA) in this game.
This is just the fourth start of Bradley's Major League career, but he's been solid for Tampa, allowing just six earned runs in 15.1 innings of work.
Here's a look at the odds and my best bet for Thursday's series finale:
Rays vs. Mets odds, run line and total
Rays vs. Mets prediction and pick
I don't trust Megill at all in this game, especially going up against Bradley, who has started the season strong.
Megill has allowed at least three runs in four of his last five starts, and now he's taking on the No. 1 offense in all of baseball. On the season, he's in the 13th percentile in expected ERA, 14th percentile in expected batting average against, 17th percentile in walk percentage and 26th percentile in expected slugging percentage against.
Translation: Megill has been bad.
Bradley has given the Rays at least five innings in each of his starts this season, and the youngster has a Fielding Independent Pitching of just 2.59, showing he's actually pitched better than his ERA suggests this season.
Tampa Bay is one of the top teams in MLB in bullpen ERA, so even if Bradley only gives them five innings, I trust the team to close this game out.
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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
