Oftentimes whenever the penultimate week of the college football regular season roll around, it's a massive stretch to put ranked teams on upset alert. However, the 2023 season appears to be quite different. Yes, some highly-ranked teams are still playing a cupcake before a rivalry game. However, there are also several real potential upsets brewing, even for a couple of Top 5 teams in the country.
Upsets have been coming in wildly from all over the place over the past few weeks. Just last week, we saw UCF blow out then-No. 15 Oklahoma State. But we also saw Texas Tech clip Kansas while teams like Florida State and Louisville got legitimate scares from inferior competition. It's a long season and staying perfect (or even close to perfect) is a monumental challenge. That's something teams in Week 12 should be keeping in mind.
No, we aren't going to put teams like Alabama on upset alert as they play Chattanooga. Nor are we crazy enough to think that Minnesota is going to upset Ohio State or that Arizona State has a chance against Oregon. But the Red Flags are waving elsewhere in the country, and you can be that we see them.
So with that, let's get into our college football upset picks for Week 12 with four teams still alive for the College Football Playoff being put on upset alert along with with one of the hottest teams in the country. We'll start with the latter.
2023 Upset Picks Record: 17-38
Note: All lines are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook. For more college football odds, picks and predictions, visit BetSided.
5. Arizona Wildcats
Opponent: 22 Utah | Time: Saturday, Nov. 18, 2:30 p.m. ET (PAC12) | Spread: UTAH -1.5
Arizona has been one of the fastest rising teams in college football since the start of October. The Wildcats started off the month with a narrow double-overtime loss at USC, but followed that up by blowing out Washington State, upsetting Oregon State, upsetting UCLA, and then fighting past Colorado in a game that was probably closer than it should've been a week ago.
With their recent winning streak and elevation of performance spurned on by quarterback Noah Fifita taking over the offense and a high-end defense coming into its own, Arizona has now reached No. 17 in the latest CFP rankings, the fourth-highest ranked team in the Pac-12. On Saturday, though, they welcome the fifth ranked team in the conference in Utah to town.
The biggest benefit for Jedd Fisch's Wildcats is that they don't have to go on the road to play in Rice-Eccles. However, Kyle Whittingham's Utah team has proven to be a thorn in the side of many conference opponents this year and historically as well.
While Bryson Barnes and the offense may not scare an Arizona defense that has been nails for the majority of the 2023 season, the Utes have proven the ability to be streaky and get hot. When you complement that with their defensive prowess, it's even more of a tricky spot, which is why Utah has the edge on the point spread for this one.
In terms of the Top 25 rankings, though, the upset potential is clearly there with the Wildcats being the higher-ranked home underdog. If nothing else, it's certainly a trouble spot for Arizona and a hurdle they must clear.
4. Louisville Cardinals
Opponent: at Miami | Time: Saturday, Nov. 18, Noon ET (ABC) | Spread: LOU -1.5
In theory, the Louisville Cardinals are still alive for the College Football Playoff. Jeff Brohm's team, however, is working with very slim margins in that as the team's one loss came against Pitt, one of the worst teams in the country. To climb into the Top 4, Louisville certainly can't afford to lose another game, probably needs a lot of help, and needs to upset Florida State in the ACC Championship Game if the Cardinals can survive this week and get there.
Surviving this week, however, is not the easiest of tasks for the Cardinals. Louisville is heading on the road to face Mario Cristobal's Miami team, a group that certainly put a scare into rival Florida State last week, but came up short.
Now, make no mistake, we don't know what iteration of Miami we're going to get on the field. After an injury to Emory Williams at the end of the FSU loss, Tyler Van Dyke is taking back over at quarterback amid a myriad of turnover concerns that led to his benching in the first place. Furthermore, we've seen it proven that Miami doesn't have a particularly notable home-field advantage, if they have one at all.
At the same time, though, we've seen the best of TVD look like one of the top quarterbacks in college football. If he comes out and shows that against an admittedly good Louisville defense, that could give the Cardinals some anxiety. On top of that, for as good as UofL is in the trenches, Miami just has a different caliber of athlete there that could allow them to control the trenches.
The Canes are one of the trickiest teams in the country because of how hot and cold they can run. That also means, however, that a game like this is primed for an upset.
3. Texas Longhorns
Opponent: at Iowa State | Time: Saturday, Nov. 18, 8 p.m. ET (FOX) | Spread: TEX -7.5
I'm sure everyone in Austin right now is wishing that Steve Sarkisian's Texas Longhorns would quit playing with their food, so to speak. With Maalik Murphy at the helm a couple of weeks ago, Texas had to survive in overtime against Kansas State. Then last week with the return of Quinn Ewers, the Longhorns jumped out to a big first-half lead over rival TCU only to allow the Horned Frogs to climb back into the game and make it quite precarious in the final minutes.
Texas survived both instances, though, remaining a one-loss team with a win over Alabama in its back pocket, making the Longhorns a prime candidate to win out, win the Big 12 Championship Game, and have a strong case to make it into the College Football Playoff.
To win out, though, that first means going on the road to Ames to play an Iowa State team that is simply much better at this point in the season than their 6-4 overall record would indicate.
After an ugly start to the season in non-conference with losses to rival Iowa and on the road at Ohio (the Bobcats, not OSU), the Cylcones have bounced back tremendously. Yes, they lost big on the road to Oklahoma and fell in a nail-biter against Kansas, but they are 5-2 in conference play overall with a win over Oklahoma State in their back pocket.
Matt Campbell has the ISU defense playing extremely well and Rocco Becht has started to give the offense some real life. The big question is if their run in the Big 12 has been more about the competition or the Cyclones. Texas certainly can't bank on it being the former, though, or they might get upset on the road at a tough place to play and see their CFP dream get washed away.
2. Georgia Bulldogs
Opponent: at 18 Tennessee | Time: Saturday, Nov. 18, 3:30 p.m. ET (CBS) | Spread: UGA -10.5
Let me be as blunt as possible in saying this: I don't think Tennessee actually has a chance of upsetting rival Georgia on Saturday.
These are two different calibers of teams in the 2023 season and, though the transitive property rarely works perfectly in college football, it's telling that the Bulldogs scored a nine-point win over Mizzou only for the Tigers to turn around and beat the Vols by four scores a week ago. Georgia is a national championship contender while Tennessee is outside of the New Year's Six conversation.
While that is a simple way of framing this, the situation at hand does essentially require me by the laws of this sport and upset alerts to say that Georgia could, in theory, find itself in some trouble on Saturday in Knoxville.
The game being played in Neyland Stadium is one part of that equation. Georgia has recently seen its two biggest tests of the season in Missouri and Ole Miss, handling both of those beautifully. But not only could that mean that the Dawgs are a bit beaten-down from the pressure of those games, it's also worth noting that both of those victories came in Athens. Thus, a road trip to a raucous environment against a good team is a tough spot for Kirby Smart's team.
On top of that, if you're looking for an on-field window for the Vols, Georgia's run defense is not what it has been in years past. Tennessee's offense, in stark contrast to last year, has thrived with the ground game. That, in turn, could put the Dawgs on their heels.
Again, I don't see it happening. In fact, the more likely outcome is probably a blowout victory for Georgia. But is an upset possible and is part of the recipe there? Absolutely.
1. Washington Huskies
Opponent: at 11 Oregon State | Time: Saturday, Nov. 18, 7:30 p.m. ET (ABC) | Spread: ORST -2.5
This is the real put-up or shut up time for the No. 5 ranked Washington Huskies.
Still left out of the Top 4 in the College Football Playoff rankings despite earning wins over Oregon, Arizona, USC, and Utah this season, Washington will have to prove itself yet again this week in what might be its biggest test of the regular season outside of the Ducks coming to Husky Stadium -- and it just so happens to be the team in the same state.
Oregon State is not as traditional of a Pac-12 power as Oregon or Washington, but Jonathan Smith and the Beavers have this thing cooking right now. They are not a perfect team and the defense is still worse than it was a year ago, which isn't great when facing Washington, but Damian Martinez and one of the best offensive lines in the country have asserted their will more often than not and D.J. Uiagalelei has made strides from his time at Clemson.
Perhaps most importantly, the Huskies have to go on the road to Corvallis, one of the most underratedly difficult places to play in college football. That's been even more so true under Smith, who is 14-2 against the spread as a favorite at home with the Beavs. And lo and behold, Oregon State is favored in this matchup as well.
This game has the makings of a shootout with the inconsistency of Washington's defense combined with the prowess of Oregon State's offense, and vice versa. With the Beavers having a major home-field advantage, Washington will have to fight tooth and nail to keep their perfect regular season alive.
