College football upsets that almost were emerged as a big storyline coming out of last week. Sure, Kentucky blasted Florida as a then-unranked team and Ole Miss clipped LSU, but there were upset alerts throughout the country and throughout most of Saturday that ultimately ended without any calamity.
Whether it was Georgia getting put on the ropes by Auburn, USC's porous defense almost allowing Colorado to make things way too interesting, and Notre Dame needed a last-minute score to win (and cover) against Duke. Again, they got the job done, but the upsets were almost of the cataclysmic variety for college football.
Are teams on upset alert going to be as lucky in college footbal Week 6 with a huge slate on deck?
We can't guarantee anything. Thank you to John Buhler, our hero, for filling in for me last week, but I'll take it from here. The red flags are waving, and these are the college football upset picks for Week 6.
2023 Upset Picks Record: 7-18
Note: All lines are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook. For more college football odds, picks and predictions, visit BetSided.
5. Ohio State Buckeyes
Opponent: Maryland | Time: Saturday, Oct. 7, Noon ET (FOX) | Spread: OSU -19.5
You're probably thinking that we've seen this story before. Maryland is not unfamiliar with getting off to good starts, even in the still-ongoing Taulia Tagovailoa era, only to end up facing Ohio State or another power in the Big Ten and then getting their brains beat in by a wholly superior team.
Let's caveat everything that I'm about to say with the fact that this may indeed be the case for the Terps again in Week 6 as they go on the road to Columbus... but it also might not be.
It hasn't been a blemishless start for Mike Locksley's team, most notably struggling early against a bad Charlotte team in Week 2. However, this team has been taking care of business overall, winning every game by double-digits and all but one (that aforementioned Charlotte game) by 20+ points.
The way they're doing it could cause Ohio State some issues, too. The Buckeyes defense has been nails for Jim Knowles this season, but the secondary also hasn't been tested by a passing offense like Maryland's. The Terrapins have four pass-catchers with at least 200 yards and 18 receptions already this season. It's a multi-faceted attack that could test the depth of the OSU defensive backs.
In turn, that could set up a bit of a shootout in this game, not dissimilar to what we saw last season when Maryland pushed Ohio State for three quarters. For as good as Kyle McCord was late in the Notre Dame win, we still haven't seen the young QB keep pace in the type of game this cold be. Up against an experienced Tagovailoa, that creates more than enough upset potential.
And at the very least, a 19.5-point spread is just far too much.
4. Texas Longhorns
Opponent: 12 Oklahoma | Time: Saturday, Oct. 7, Noon ET (ABC) | Spread: TEX -5.5
Probably the biggest game of Week 6 is the always-entertaining Red River Showdown (or whatever word you prefer there at the end). Texas comes in with the Alabama win under its belt and ranked No. 3 in the country, but Brent Venables' Oklahoma has rebounded from a disappointing 2022 season to also start 5-0 and come into this rivalry clash ranked No. 12.
For my money, Texas is the better team in this game. Steve Sarkisian's squad has the advantage on the lines of scrimmage on both sides of the ball, they have better offensive playmakers, I'd take Quinn Ewers over Dillon Gabriel, and the jury is still out on Venables as a head coach. That's all advantage, Longhorns.
And yet, this is Red River. In this rivalry, all bets are off.
The primary reasons to doubt Oklahoma are pretty clear. This offense has been stifled already at times this season, scoring just 20 points on the road against middling Cincinnati and just 28 points against SMU. Meanwhile, the defense hasn't faced a murderer's row and we might not know how good they are. And though Gabriel didn't play in this matchup last season, it was a 49-0 Texas blowout win in this game last year.
Yet, the crux of that is that we just don't know how good the Sooners are right now. While I'm of the belief that they are a tier below the rival Longhorns, there is a chance they are on the same level and show it on their biggest stage yet. This offense is explosive, Gabriel is talented, and the defense has improved from last season.
Again, my pick would be Texas to win and cover in this game... but you can't rule out the possibility of the Oklahoma upset. Not in the Red River Rivalry.
3. Georgia Bulldogs
Opponent: 20 Kentucky | Time: Saturday, Oct. 7, 7 p.m. ET (ESPN) | Spread: UGA -14.5
In two SEC games now in the 2023 season, the back-to-back defending national champion Georgia Bulldogs have found themselves with their backs against the wall. The first instance was trailing against South Carolina in Athens, but then, as mentioned, the Dawgs were fighting for their lives on the road at Auburn last weekend. They survived and are still the No. 1 team in the rankings. But the feelings of invincibility or fading.
Now, enter Mark Stoops's Kentucky Wildcats. Off to a 5-0 start on the year, this team just welcomed Florida to Lexington and pushed their face into the white dog crap like Brennan and Dale taking the shortest way home.
What was fascinating about that game, however, was that there was good reason to be dubious of Kentucky prior to that win. They couldn't pull away from Eastern Kentucky, Vanderbilt scored on them quite consistently, and the Devin Leary arrival at quarterback hadn't yielded a quality passing offense. That last part is still true as Ray Davis propelled the offense on the groung last week, but the UF win makes this trip to Athens much trickier looking than it previously was.
Though Leary and the Kentucky passing offense will have to elevate their play to beat Georgia, the Bulldogs have not been the defensive force, particularly up front, that they have been in their title reigns. If the Wildcats can again exploit that and cause issues for a still-developing Carson Beck, the Dawgs could once again find themselves in trouble.
Given that the spread is over two touchdowns -- even if only slightly -- oddsmakers believe that Georgia has figured some things out. I tend to agree, but with Kentucky seemingly doing the same, Kirby Smart's team could very well get upset on Saturday if they don't take a step forward and start sluggishly once again.
2. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Opponent: at 25 Louisville | Time: Saturday, Oct. 7, 7:30 p.m. ET (ABC) | Spread: ND -6.5
Full disclosure, everyone is overrating the Louisville Cardinals. Hats off to Jeff Brohm returning to his alma mater and getting off to a 5-0 start, but let's not pretend that this team has been winning against overly impressive competition along that start.
A five-point win over Georgia Tech at a neutral site, a seven-point win at Indiana, and even a 13-10 win at NC State last week don't exactly read as something that could make you think that Louisville is the same caliber as Notre Dame. And you know what? They probably aren't.
So many times in college football, however, we see what I like to refer to as situational upsets. Whether that's a trap game, a contest that comes at the end of a brutal scheduling stretch, or something in-between those things, we see this all the time. And this is 100% one of those positions for the Fighting Irish as they come into Week 6.
After starting the season in Dublin for Week 0, the Irish will be playing their seventh-straight game without a week off. Furthermore, this will be their third consecutive game in primetime, not mentioning the fact that it's their third consecutive ranked opponent. Throw in that this game is also their second-straight road game, it's a tough spot where fatigue could very much be a factor for the Irish -- especially with USC coming to town next week, adding a bit of a look-ahead aspect too.
There's definitely a gameplan where Notre Dame's defense just causes too many problems for Louisville QB Jack Plummer. In that world, the Irish can also pound the Cardinals for consistent gains with Audric Estime and an elite offensive line. Yet, in such a tricky spot, even if Louisville isn't certifiably great, they are good enough to take advantage and upset the Irish if they're a letdown.
1. Alabama Crimson Tide
Opponent: at Texas A&M | Time: Saturday, Oct. 7, 3:30 p.m. ET (CBS) | Spread: ALA -2.5
We very well might be watching the battle to win the SEC West on Saturday afternoon in College Station. Though both Texas A&M and Alabama come into this game at 4-1, neither has suffered a loss in the conference yet. Thus, a win in this matchup could prove to be the deciding factor in who makes it to Atlanta for the SEC Championship Game in early December.
Make no mistake, too, Alabama could find itself in trouble in this game.
While Jalen Milroe and the Crimson Tide offense have looked solid-enough against Ole Miss and Misssissippi State, the Aggies defense is a whole different animal. They should be able to create a ton of pressure, particularly up the middle, which could cause real problems for Milroe, against a still-shaky Bama O-line.
On top of that, even with Conner Weigman out and Max Johnson in at quarterback for A&M, the Aggies still have better playmakers than the good-not-great buffet that we've seen from Alabama to this point. We saw in the loss to Texas that Alabama's defense can be susceptible to simply elite playmakers. Evan Stewart (if he plays), Ainias Smith and so on have the goods to take advantage of that.
Most importantly, though, the only time that Texas A&M's defense showed cracks, it was Tyler Van Dyke and Miami throwing it all over the yard against them. There is nothing Milroe has shown this season (or last season, for that matter) to make me believe he can replicate that, particularly since the Aggies saw him start against them last season.
Not only is this a potential upset, but it's one that I'm outright predicting to happen this week. Texas A&M beats Alabama, and Tuscaloosa descends into madness.
