The beautiful, wacky world of college football upsets is coming into full bloom at the midway point of the 2023 season. Last week, fans were treated (or if you're a fan of one of the ranked teams to lose, mistreated) to virtually one upset in every window. Whether that was Oklahoma stunning Texas in Red River, UCLA manhandling Washington State, Louisville embarrassing Notre Dame, or Miami embarrassing itself against Georgia Tech, there were upsets abound.
And that doesn't even include one of the near-monumental college football upsets that happened as Caleb Williams and the USC Trojans needed three overtimes and a heroic play from the reigning Heisman Trophy winner to escape a loss to Arizona.
If that doesn't feel like an appetizer to more chaos coming in Week 7, you're just not paying attention to the Red Flags that college football is giving us.
With four ranked-on-ranked matchups and four Top 25 teams playing on the road on Saturday, these are our college football upset picks for Week 7 -- but we have a bonus pick before that!
We like to limit ourselves to five official picks, but Oregon State could very much be in trouble as they welcome No. 18 UCLA to town. The Beavers defense has taken a step back this season while the Bruins might be the best defense in the Pac-12, capable of shutting down Damian Martinez and the OSU offense. Corvallis could protect the Beavs, but the upset potential is undeniable.
Now, onto the rest of the college football teams on upset alert this week.
2023 Upset Picks Record: 9-21
Note: All lines are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook. For more college football odds, picks and predictions, visit BetSided.
5. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Opponent: 10 USC | Time: Saturday, Oct. 14, 7:30 p.m. ET (NBC) | Spread: ND -3.0
Even after losing badly at Louisville last week, it's wholly understandable why Notre Dame is favored on Saturday in the marquee matchup against USC. Alex Grinch's defense for the Trojans has actually improved from last season -- largely because it would've been near-impossible not to -- but remains a legitimate problem. We saw that against Arizona in the near upset last week.
As such, the expectation is that Notre Dame should be able to move the ball much more effectively than they've been able to the past two weeks against Duke and Louisville. And even in an upset, that's likely going to be the case simply based on the overall ineffectiveness of the USC defense. Moreover, Irish fans are certainly hoping they can see better from the likes of Sam Hartman and Audric Estime.
Having said that, when Tommy Rees left for Alabama, there were many who were critical of hiring Gerad Parker as his replacement for offensive coordinator in South Bend. Those people are looking quite prescient right now too. Parker's offense has been milquetoast at best this season, which could create an issue in this matchup, even against the aforementioned Trojans D.
The fact of the matter is that Caleb Williams and the USC offense are going to light up the scoreboard. For as good as Notre Dame's defense is, that's just what Lincoln Riley's offense does. On the flip side, though, what we've seen from Parker's offense suggests a possibility that they try to slow things down and grind it out. Against this explosive and dynamic Trojans offense, that can ultimately lead to trouble.
All told, this game could go a number of different ways. One of those ways it ends, however, is with Notre Dame simply not being able to keep pace with the USC offense, ultimately leading to an upset in South Bend.
4. North Carolina Tar Heels
Opponent: 25 Miami (FL) | Time, Saturday, Oct. 14, 7:30 p.m. ET (ABC) | Spread: UNC -3.5
After an early-season scare against Appalachian State (a team that seems to almost have Mack Brown's number, for whatever reason), North Carolina has seemingly turned a corner. Drake Maye, after a tepid start, is actually playing better than he did in the quarterback's breakout 2022 season, and the defense has looked notably improved.
Just last week, the Tar Heels beat the absolute mess out of a good-not-great Syracuse team, moving the ball at will against the Orange and stifling an admittedly limited offense. Meanwhile, the Miami Hurricanes team that is coming to Chapel Hill this week committed one of the worst instances of coaching malpractice as Mario Cristobal decided not to kneel and run out the clock, leading to a fumble and an exceptionally improbable upset loss to Georgia Tech.
Even with the coaching blunder of the century aside, though, Miami played its worst game of the season last week. Tyler Van Dyke was a turnover machine, the defense had several costly lapses, and it looked nothing like the group that came into last week still undefeated.
That game, however, could be an outlier for the Hurricanes. Miami will be by far the most talented team that UNC has played this season, particularly on the lines of scrimmage. North Carolina's defense, though, improved, has not been tested by the caliber of weapon they'll see on Saturday against The U. And on the other side of the ball, the Heels offensive line certainly hasn't seen some of the future NFL talent across from them that will be there in Chapel Hill in Week 7.
For my money, Maye and the UNC offense will find a way, particularly against a Miami secondary that appears can be taken advantage of with the right talent and scheme. However, there is a world where we are overinflating the Tar Heels and they could certainly get clipped for their first loss of the season.
3. Kentucky Wildcats
Opponent: Missouri | Time: Saturday, Oct. 14, 7:30 p.m. ET (SECN) | Spread: UK -2.5
Full disclosure, I'm still over here trying to figure out how in the world the Kentucky Wildcats are still ranked after what we saw last week.
Mark Stoops' team played a quartet of cupcakes to start the season before welcoming Florida, a team that has a win over Tennessee but has looked quite suspect at other times this season, and picking up a win. They then faced their first major test a week ago and got absolute dog-walked between the hedges by No. 1-ranked Georgia. How that equates to a Top 25 resumé doesn't quite compute.
But if the AP Top 25 voters are going to keep this team ranked as they welcome anoter one-loss SEC opponent to town in Missouri, then you better believe we're going to see the Red Flags and put the Wildcats on upset alert this week.
It would be fair to quantify the first half of the season for Mizzou as not what we expected from Eli Drinkwitz's team coming into the year. Most had serious questions about Brady Cook and the Tigers offense but expected the defense to be its calling card. It's been the opposite that's transpired this season, though, with the offense leading the way, particularly with the emergence of Luther Burden III.
Kentucky, meanwhile, has only been tested by one actually good offense this season, and Georgia hung 51 points on them. While Devin Leary and Liam Coen's offense should have more success than they did against the Dawgs, that is still a flawed unit that we have not seen operate at a high, high level against legitimate competition. Thus, it's a viable concern they might not be able to keep pace with Mizzou, and could ultimately suffer a second straight loss -- this time as a home favorite, though.
2. Tennessee Volunteers
Opponent: Texas A&M | Time: Saturday, Oct. 14, 3:30 p.m. ET (CBS) | Spread: TENN -3.5
Texas A&M had an opportunity to pull off a major upset last week as the Aggies welcomed a flawed Alabama team to Kyle Field. The drop-off from injured Conner Weigman to Max Johnson at quarterback, however, was quite evident against the vaunted Crimston Tide defense and, just as importantly, Jimbo Fisher made numerous head-scratching decisions that cost his team in the 26-20 loss.
Now this team has to go on the road to an always tough environment in Neyland Stadium to face the No. 19-ranked Tennessee Volunteers. On some level, there is reason to believe that the Vols will be getting a team that might be beaten down after last week's result and will roll to a victory. That is very much in the realm of possibilities -- but so too is an upset.
Put simply, I remain unconvinced that Josh Heupel has anything close to the Tennessee team that we saw last year, particularly with the downgrade from Hendon Hooker to Joe Milton at quarterback. One of the big factors for the Vols this season has been that their offense is far more reliant on the run game, including the passing attack which has been opened up consistently by their rushing attack.
Against Texas A&M's defensive front, I don't see Tennessee having too much success moving the ball on the ground, which puts added pressure on Milton to deliver. I still can't trust him in the slightest, so that leads me to think that Johnson can utilize the high-caliber weapons around him against a still-shaky Volunteers defense to pull off the upset in Knoxville.
1. Washington Huskies
Opponent: 8 Oregon | Time: Saturday, Oct. 14, 3:30 p.m. ET (ABC) | Spread: WASH -3.0
Easily the biggest game on the Week 7 slate, we have a battle between not just contenders in the Pac-12 but for the College Football Playoff as well with the Oregon Ducks going on the road to face the Washington Huskies in Seattle, a showdown between the seventh and eighth-ranked teams in the country.
This has the potential to be one of the best and most entertaining games of the 2023 season. For as good as both teams have looked to this point, the argument could be made that neither has actually faced a viable test this season. Oregon's best opponent was Texas Tech, a team they had to come back against on the road in Lubbock, while Washington struggled a bit more than expected two weeks ago against Arizona.
That lack of testing to this point in the season, however, is particularly pertinent to the defensive side of the ball for both of these teams. Washington's defense has graded out as middling, which is worrisome given the competiton they've faced. On the flip side of that, however, Oregon has not faced anything near the caliber of the Michael Penix Jr. led unit he'll see in Seattle on Saturday.
At the end of the day, the two best units on the field in this game will be the offenses. That could lead to another shootout akin to the one we saw last year in Eugene, with Washington coming back for the 37-34 victory. In that type of game, though, either side is live to pick up the win. As the Huskies are the narrow favorites at home, that puts them in legitimate danger of getting upset by their conference foe.
