The top team in the National League, the Atlanta Braves got a well deserved day off yesterday after taking two of three from Baltimore over the weekend and improving its record to 24-11. The Red Sox might have earned their rest day even more after winning eight straight before a loss to the Phillies on Sunday. That streak catapulted them all the way from last place to fourth place in the vaunted AL East. The Red Sox enter this series at 21-15.
For Game 1 of this two-game mini series Boston will hand the ball to 2-2 Nick Pivetta who will enter with a 4.99 ERA. He will be opposed by Charlie Morton with his 3-3 record and 3.38 ERA.
Let's check out the odds for Game 1 between the Red Sox and Braves down in Atlanta.
Red Sox vs. Braves odds, run line and total
Red Sox vs. Braves prediction and pick
Over the past 15 days, the Red Sox and Braves are the best two teams in baseball, both at 9-3 for that stretch.
However, the numbers for the Braves inspire a lot more confidence going forward. Boston's lineup has been hitting the ball well with an .853 OPS in that stretch, the second best in baseball, the Braves are third at .840 and have only scored one less run. The pitching is where the difference shows up. The Braves are 10th in ERA in that stretch at 3.82 with a +22 run differential. The Red Sox are 17th with a 4.29 ERA and a +15 run differential.
Those are fairly significant differences over a 15-game stretch and it gives me a lot more confidence in Atlanta in this two-game set. Now, a lot of it will come down to each day's pitching matchup, but the edge is still with Atlanta in this one. Nick Pivetta had two strong starts to start his season, but has allowed at least three in each of his last four and hasn't gone longer than six. Pivetta also has a 5.47 FIP with his 4.99 ERA.
Charlie Morton allowed four over 5.1 last time out, but across his prior two starts he only allowed two earned in 13.0 innings. I like Morton and the Braves to win tonight, but more than that I like the over with the way both of these offense lineups are hitting in the past 15 days.
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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change
