Don't look now, but the Miami Marlins have won five straight games and are in second place in the NL East, just three games back of the Atlanta Braves.
Miami has a chance to sweep the lowly Kansas City Royals on Wednesday, who are just 3-7 in their last 10 games and 9-20 on the road this season.
Edward Cabrera (4-4, 4.50 ERA) gets the ball for the Marlins against Royals veteran Jordan Lyles (0-9, 6.89 ERA), who has been downright awful this season.
How should we wager on this series finale? Let's break down my best bet for this game:
Royals vs. Marlins odds, run line and total
Royals vs. Marlins prediction and pick
There's a pretty simple trend to follow in this game that I'm going to trust once again:
The Royals are 0-12 in Lyles' starts this season!
The veteran right-hander has been downright awful, ranking in the 20th percentile in expected ERA and ninth percentile in expected slugging percentage against this season. He has an ERA just short of 7.00 and a Fielding Independent Pitching of 6.13.
Bad, very bad, terrible – use whichever word you want to describe Lyles this season. He only has two starts this season where he's allowed fewer than four runs, and the Royals simply don't have the offense to keep up with that.
Kansas City ranks 27th in the league in OPS and runs scored this season.
Cabrera has been far from lights out, but he did toss six scoreless innings in his last outing.
The youngster is starting to find his form, posting a 3.34 FIP since April 29, mainly because he's kept his walks down. Cabrera has just 16 walks over his last seven starts after walking 20 batters in his first five outings this season.
Miami doesn't have a great offense, but I simply can't bet on Lyles. Trust the Marlins at home where they are an impressive 20-13 this season.
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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
