South Africa’s inflation rate rose to a three-month high in September, strengthening the case for the central bank to hold borrowing costs higher for longer.
Annual inflation accelerated to 5.4% from 4.8% in August, Pretoria-based Statistics South Africa said Wednesday in a statement on its website. That matched the median of 12 economists’ estimates in a Bloomberg survey.
The South African Reserve Bank, which held interest rates steady at 8.25% at its last policy meeting in September, aims to anchor inflation around the midpoint of its 3% to 6% target range. It’s next rate decision will be announced on Nov. 23.
Traders maintained their bets that the central bank will resume its interest-rate hiking cycle next month, following the data release.
Forward-rate agreements starting in two months time — used to speculate on borrowing costs — show traders are pricing in a 72% chance of a quarter-point increase at the central bank’s upcoming meeting, compared with 76% before the release. The South African currency was little changed at 18.75 rand to the dollar.
The biggest contributors to inflation in September were food and non-alcoholic beverages, which increased 8.1% year-on-year, and housing and utility prices, which climbed 5.5%. Miscellaneous goods and services increased 6%, while transport prices increased 4.2%.
--With assistance from Simbarashe Gumbo.
(Updates with more details from fourth paragraph onward.)
