The widening disconnect between stocks and bonds suggests a 20% downside risk for equities if bonds are proved correct in pricing inflation volatility, according to modeling by JPMorgan Chase & Co. strategists.
The view highlights how much investors across different asset classes are struggling to make sense of the market landscape since the pandemic. The divergence has been on full display this week, with the S&P 500 entering a bull market just as bets firm for another Federal Reserve rate hike in July and after central banks in Australia and Canada wrong-footed traders.
“Bond markets are still pricing in a sustained period of elevated macroeconomic uncertainty, even if there has been some modest decline over the past three months,” strategists including Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou and Mika Inkinen wrote in a note. “By contrast, equity markets look ‘priced for perfection’ with the S&P now above a fair value estimate looking through the rise in macroeconomic volatility since the pandemic.”
Inflation volatility, however, poses a risk to bonds as well, according to the strategists. “If bond markets were to look through the rise in inflation vol since early 2021, 10-year real US Treasury yields could decline by around 70 basis points,” they wrote.
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