A majority of respondents in SEB AB’s trading room survey believes the Riksbank will raise its benchmark rate by a quarter of a percentage point on Thursday, which would defy the lender’s own call for the central bank to stay its hand.
Of those surveyed, 63% of fixed income and foreign exchange traders believe the Swedish central bank will hike to 4.25% while 37% expect unchanged rates.
The survey, which was conducted on Nov. 20-21, paints a similar picture to the estimates compiled by Bloomberg, which show that 13 of 21 institutions polled believe the Riksbank will raise its benchmark rate, with the other 8 betting that it is done hiking.
Almost all the traders who expect the Riksbank to continue raising borrowing costs this week believe the hike will be the final one of this cycle, and a majority of respondents predict at least two rate cuts by December next year.
SEB’s survey also shows that 21% of respondents predict that the central bank will announce an expansion of its bond-sales program, which was launched in February partly as an attempt to shore up the krona.
The following market reactions to three different scenarios are expected by the survey participants:
