The Swedish krona slumped to a record low against the euro on a combination of global risk aversion and expectations the nation’s central bank is close to wrapping up its yearlong interest-rate hiking cycle.
The currency fell as much as 0.9% to 11.8164 per euro on Tuesday, past the previous record of 11.7896 hit in 2009. The jury is out among analysts on whether further losses are possible, with both RBC Capital Markets and Nomura International Plc seeing it ending the year around current levels.
“Given how the krona has been trading for the past month or so, this seemed almost bound to happen sooner or later,” said Jesper Fjarstedt, analyst at Danske Bank A/S.
Concerns about the limited scope for further Riksbank rate rises, the Swedish economic outlook and the country’s commercial real estate sector were continuing to batter the currency, he said. Against the dollar, it fell as much as 1.1% to 10.8460.
Traders have been selling the krona as they see little room for the Riksbank to keep tightening. While high interest rates have taken a toll in economies across the globe, they have been particularly harmful to households in Sweden, where mortgages rates are typically fixed for only three months.
Sweden’s policymakers raised interest rates from zero in early 2022 to 3.5% in April, the highest since the global financial crisis. Traders expect officials to pause the hiking cycle in coming months after one or two additional quarter-point hikes. The Riksbank holds its next meeting on June 29.
The surge in borrowing costs triggered a drop house prices and turbulence in the nation’s commercial real estate sector. Consumer spending and investments plummeted, putting the economy on track to contract 0.5% this year, the most in the European Union, according to the European Commission.
Still, the inflation rate remains in double digits and is only seen returning to the central bank’s 2% target in 2024. The weakening krona only worsens the outlook for prices, an effect that has been acknowledged by central bank officials.
Deputy governor Per Jansson said in late May the depreciation “cannot continue,” but has not indicated any intervention in the foreign-exchange market.
“It is impossible to quantify at what point, but sooner or later it will become an important factor for inflation and then it would cause a problem for monetary policy,” Jansson said.
Riksbank’s board members have also stressed that Sweden’s low public debt and competitive business sector should speak in favor of long-term krona strengthening, but to no avail. The krona is down more than 3% versus the euro over the past month.
(Updates prices, adds analyst comment.)
