Swiss inflation stalled in October, delaying an anticipated rebound and strengthening the case for Swiss National Bank officials to hold interest rates steady when they meet next month.
Consumer prices rose 1.7% from a year earlier, matching both the September reading and the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey.
Heating oil and air transport were the main drivers, with women’s coats and imported wine also contributing. At the same time falling costs for hotels, gasoline and vegetables kept price increases in check. Underlying inflation, which strips out volatile elements like energy, jumped to 1.5% from 1.3%, Switzerland’s statistics agency said on Thursday.
After slowing over the summer, the central bank and most economists expect price pressures to amplify over the coming months, setting up the gauge to again touch or even cross the 2% ceiling limiting the range the SNB equates with price stability.
The central bank’s interest-rate aggression might have temporarily damped prices, yet higher costs of electricity, rents and public transport, combined with a boost in value-added tax are driving inflation. Power prices alone are set to rise an average 18% in January.
Economists predict inflation will peak at 2% this quarter, while rate setters see it accelerating to as much as 2.2% in mid-2024. After surprisingly pausing its rate tightening in September, the SNB could therefore opt for another hike in December — a possibility which remains on the table, as President Thomas Jordan reiterated as recently as Wednesday.
Still, Swiss consumer-price growth remains the among the lowest of any advanced economy, showcasing how Switzerland’s strong currency has sheltered it from the ravages of inflation elsewhere.
Euro-area data this week showed price growth dropped to 2.9% there, while based on the European Union’s harmonized measure, Swiss inflation was 2% in October.
--With assistance from Joel Rinneby and Kristian Siedenburg.
