Just like that, the first quarter of the 2023 NFL season is over. Gone are the summer days filled with anticipation and optimism for all 32 franchises. Many fanbases have already had their postseason dreams crushed, some have managed to keep a glimmer of hope alive, and a few have solidified themselves as legitimate contenders for Super Bowl glory in Las Vegas.
Ten teams have fallen below .500 and are facing dire situations. Their upcoming games will border on the edge of must-win territory. Only two teams — the 49ers and the Eagles — escaped September unblemished. The Bears and the Panthers finished the month without a win.
Some teams have performed exactly as expected, for better or worse. Others have surprised the NFL world, whether they hit the ground running or stumbled and collapsed right out of the gate.
In the NFL, it's difficult to predict which teams will rise and fall year-to-year. Whether it's due to injuries, media hype, or schematic changes, seasons rarely play out how we expect. Just last year, many expected that the Denver Broncos would contend for a championship while the Seattle Seahawks would contend for the top overall draft selection.
Instead, the Seahawks made the playoffs, and the Broncos mustered just five wins. It seems that the two teams are destined for similar fates in 2023. Seattle's 3-1 record, second only behind the pristine 49ers in the NFC West, is the inverse of Denver's 1-3 last place standing in the AFC West.
The obvious connection between Seattle and Denver is their landscape-shifting trade of quarterback Russell Wilson. Since then, many variables have contributed to their contrasting performances. The most defining factor has been the differing approaches to team-building.
NFL team-building strategies: Seahawks boom, Broncos doom
After the Legion of Boom era, the Seahawks roster dwindled until Wilson dwarfed the team with his four-year, $140 million contract in 2019. Add in a miscalculated trade for Jamal Adams, and the Seahawks had little cap space to work with — and that was all before Russ stopped cooking. The coaching staff took all of the blame for the offense's shortcomings, and an emboldened Wilson grew frustrated. The Seahawks were faced with a choice: stick with their frustrated franchise quarterback, or start over?
The Seahawks sent Wilson to the Broncos, stocked up on draft picks, and reminded the NFL that they largely built a Super Bowl-winning team through underrated and gritty players buried in the late rounds of drafts. More importantly, they exchanged Wilson for Geno Smith, a discarded yet experienced quarterback with a chip on his shoulder. In 2022, Smith was named the NFL's Comeback Player of the Year and attended his first Pro Bowl. Rather than catering to one player, the Seahawks decided to rebuild their roster with players suited to fit their culture and scheme.
It worked.
In the first game of the 2022 season, the Seahawks handed the Broncos their first loss of the season. Now, they've surrounded Geno Smith with talented tackles Charles Cross and Abraham Lucas, explosive running back Kenneth Walker, and versatile receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba. The defense has been outfitted with young studs like Boye Mafe in the front seven and Tariq Woolen and Coby Bryant in the secondary. Now, rookie cornerback Devon Witherspoon — who was drafted with a Broncos draft pick — notched a pick-six in the Seahawks' 24-3 victory on Monday night. And better still, Bobby Wagner came back.
By contrast, the Broncos signed Wilson to a five-year, $242.6 million contract, a move which spectacularly backfired immediately. But Wilson was once a league-leading quarterback, so surely something else was at play. The Broncos identified the culprit as Nathaniel Hackett, who made inexplicable decisions that likely cost the Broncos wins.
But Denver's issues ran deeper than coaching. After Peyton Manning retired and the vaunted Denver defense scattered following the 2015 season, the Broncos' culture began to deteriorate. This offseason, the Broncos sent away draft capital (thanks, Trey Lance!) for head coach Sean Payton. Even though Payton entered the building determined to transform the culture, it hasn't been enough to undo the years of dysfunction spread throughout the organization.
Talent surely hasn't been the problem. Although the team boasts Pat Surtain II, arguably the best cover corner in the league, it wasn't enough to keep the Miami Dolphins from hanging a historic 70 points on the team in Week 3. In fact, the only reason the Broncos aren't still winless is because they were fortunate enough to play the worst team in the league in Week 4 — the Chicago Bears. Even then, it took a late comeback to pull out a four-point victory.
While the Broncos were savvy enough to land Surtain II, there's been more focus on accruing skill position talent like Jerry Jeudy and Courtland Sutton without reinforcing their offensive line. Denver can't replicate the plug-in-Peyton method when they don't have the surrounding cast, and compared to their meticulous roster building in the early 2010s, the Broncos have desperately grasped for offensive talent while trading away defensive pillars Von Miller and Bradley Chubb.
Rather than steadily building a solid, cohesive unit, the Broncos have sprung for quick fixes that have yet to pan out. Apparently, the league has already forgotten the cautionary tale spun by the 2011 Philadelphia Eagles.
NFL team-building strategies: Eagles "Dream Team" falls apart at the seams
An innocuous soundbite from quarterback Vince Young captured the hopes and dreams of the Eagles when they decided to bolster the No. 2 offense in the league with an unprecedented free-agent frenzy. Philadelphia signed Young, cornerbacks Nnamdi Asomugha and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, defensive end Jason Babin, running back Ronnie Brown, tight end Donald Lee, offensive guard Evan Mathis, defensive tackle Cullen Jenkins and wide receiver Steve Smith. Ten of their players had earned a collective 25 Pro Bowl nominations.
No matter how Young worded it, the talent on the team garnered hype based on past accolades. "The Dream Team" became a Super Bowl favorite and caused a media frenzy. Expectations had never been higher in Philadelphia, but this wasn't the 1992 Olympics, nor was it fantasy football. Within weeks, Philadelphia's Dream Team came crashing down to earth. By October — exactly at this same point of the season — "Dream Team" had become a taunt.
The Eagles finished at a middling 8-8, winning the last four games of the season in a streak that signaled maybe the dream was onto something. But the chemistry amongst the stars arrived too late, and even though they finished fourth in yards and eighth in yards allowed, impressive statistics didn't equate to wins. Finding a way to win a game takes more than looking good on paper. As Bill Belichick has often said, collecting talent is not the same thing as building a team.
When the Eagles were busy building a Dream Team, the Patriots were on their way to their fifth Super Bowl appearance of the millennium. The team deployed two tight-end sets and a slot receiver role that redefined modern NFL offenses. While they did have Tom Brady at the helm, his ascendence was a testament to the Belichickian theorem: pure athletic ability is not enough to win football games.
NFL team-building strategies: The Patriot Way
At the professional level, there is very little talent separation between teams. While some teams may have a slight advantage in coaching or talent, it isn't significant enough to decide the outcome of a game. A losing team will still look good walking into the stadium. More often than not, the team that wins the game is the team that is better prepared rather than the team that is more talented.
"That's really what football is about," Belichick once said. "It's about the team that plays the best, not the team that has the most talent."
The tenet has allowed Belichick to build out coordinated teams every year, with players bonding over grueling practices, frigid weather and humiliating film sessions critiquing their smallest missteps. Harsh conditions aside, it's more about what's inside the building than what surrounds it. "Do your job" brought the team under a singular focus, and the players who embraced that mantra the most were the ones who were integral to their multiple Super Bowl runs.
While the Patriots did enjoy their share of talent, their dynasty was bookended by two Super Bowl teams that further proved Belichick's theorem: the 2001 Patriots and the 2018 Patriots.
In 2001, the Patriots were coming off a 5-11 season with 60-1 odds of winning it all. When the Pats lost franchise star Drew Bledsoe, it seemed all hope was lost until Tom Brady led the team to an 11-5 record and a magical Super Bowl run. What mattered most weren't the names on the roster, but how players like Brady and Adam Vinatieri defined clutch in critical moments.
In 2018, many analysts believed a 41-year-old Brady was past his prime, and the Patriots' suddenly lackluster passing offense seemed to reinforce that notion. But the Pats did what they did best: they adapted their scheme to their personnel, opting for a renewed rushing approach behind rookie running back Sony Michel.
New England's game-clinching touchdown drive in Super Bowl LIII embraced the dynamic adaptability that truly forged the dynasty. Yes, it was Brady, but even Brady knew that what gave the Patriots an edge was their approach to team-building over talent-chasing.
"What we were fortunate enough to develop over an early period of time in New England was a culture of a lot of teammates that may not have been the best, like myself, but we cared a lot," Tom Brady said during a recent interview. "We worked really hard, we were really coachable, and we won. And then some other players were like, 'I want to win.' They joined our program. So then we … developed a culture of culture-drivers. And then, no one was going to f— it up."
"[In] 2018, we freakin' found a way to beat the Rams. We weren't the most talented team in 2018," Brady said. "We won on process, we won on culture, our culture-drivers led us to succeed, we won through work ethic, we won through a lot of intangibles."
NFL team-building strategies: Bungle in the Bengals jungle
The Jets are showing the nauseating side effects of lacking depth — there's virtually no backup plan behind Aaron Rodgers, considering Zach Wilson was demoted to third-string quarterback last season — but there's another AFC team that deserves flak for its pursuit of vanity. The Cincinnati Bengals have spent years neglecting their offensive line. Entering Week 4, the offensive line ranked 28th in their PFF pass block grade. The Bengals lost 27-3, their biggest deficit of the season. So far this year, the Bengals have scored only three touchdowns — that's fewer than Zach Wilson.
While Joe Burrow's strained calf injury is being blamed, he's still healthy enough to step onto the field, and the talent surrounding him is more than enough to score at least a touchdown per game. Ultimately, it means the Bengals offense is suffering from more than a calf strain. It's well-documented that athletes who play through injury face social pressure to remain on the field, including abiding by the expectations of coaches. If Burrow is too injured to play, he should be sidelined — and if he is truly well, then the Bengals should be able to adapt to his short-term limitations as he heals.
That means leaning on Joe Mixon, who saw a season-high 67 rushing yards on 14 attempts this Sunday. That's nearly half of his opponent, Tennessee Titans running back Derrick Henry, who logged 122 rushing yards on 22 attempts. If the Arizona Cardinals can secure a win against Dallas with a backup quarterback, the Bengals should be able to follow suit.
In their sole win of the season, the Cardinals put Josh Dobbs to the test, which Dobbs passed with flying colors. Dobbs passed for a touchdown while the Cardinals gained two rushing touchdowns on the day, which was enough to defeat the vaunted Dallas Cowboys 28-16. The Bengals not only have Burrow, but Chase, Tee Higgins, and Tyler Boyd. All that talent should amount to a few touchdowns, if not a win, but talent means little if the team can't coordinate an effective and cohesive strategy in the face of adversity.
The Bengals, Broncos and Jets are just a few examples of AFC teams that were touted as preseason playoff-bound competitors based on the names in their building. Four weeks in, the AFC isn't holding up its reputation of being the tougher conference between the two. All of this is why it's impossible to predict how a season will play out, although oft-overlooked markers can be spot on.
Sometimes it's easy to imagine how franchise dysfunction will play out — the Broncos gamble could have gone either way, and unfortunately, it's gone south — but what's difficult to predict is how a team will come together. Preseason predictions may be fantastical, but football isn't. After all of the hype and hoopla in the offseason, what will truly matter — what has always mattered — in the pursuit of a championship is chemistry, camaraderie, and cohesion.
NFL Power Rankings: Week 5
Preseason Record Prediction: 12-5
Week 5 Record Prediction: 14-3
Christian McCaffrey scored San Francisco's first four touchdowns — three rushing, one receiving — as he worked towards 177 total yards. The 49ers scored on every possession in the first half, excluding the kneel-down to end the half. In his return from an injury hiatus, Brandon Aiyuk showed just how vital he is to the offense as well — four of his six catches went for 20-plus yard gains. Brock Purdy finished with one incompletion and was hit just once. Even with George Kittle and Deebo Samuel barely showing up on the stat sheet, the Niners totaled over 400 yards in a comfortable win against a division rival. As long as McCaffrey and Purdy stay healthy, there is no question that this is the most well-rounded team in the league. They can win in a variety of fashions.
Preseason Record Prediction: 11-6
Week 5 Record Prediction: 13-4
Divisional games are always a toss up, so it shouldn't be surprising that this game was close. After all, it was the Commanders who handed the 8-0 Philadelphia Eagles their first loss last season. This game seemed to be going the same way, as Washington took a 10-point lead in the first half. This time, however, the Eagles showed grit.
The 2023 Eagles are still a work in progress, evident by the two fourth-quarter touchdowns they allowed. Still, they showed up when it mattered most: the defense forced a three-and-out in overtime and the offense drove down the field to score the game-winning field goal. With the ground game stifled by a stout Washington defensive line, Jalen Hurts and A.J. Brown took to the aerial attack. Hurts leaned on Brown in key moments, and Brown finished with nine catches for 175 yards and two touchdowns.
Jalen Hurts has won each of his last five regular season games in which his team trailed by 10-plus points, but that's a dangerous place to live. Philadelphia's offense needs to be more efficient early in games.
There were 11 penalties that almost undid the Eagles, and those will have to get cleaned up, but it's always better to learn from ugly wins than it is to learn from pretty losses. The Eagles have two winnable games to tighten up their operation. After that, they face a brutal stretch of opponents for nearly two months.
Preseason Record Prediction: 11-6
Week 5 Record Prediction: 13-4
Josh Allen and Co. put up another dominant performance. The Bills quarterback was efficient and deadly, finishing with 21 completions on 25 attempts for 320 yards and four touchdowns. That was good enough for a perfect 158.3 passer rating. Allen used his legs to make splash plays, and — most importantly — he didn't turn over the football. The Bills scored on four of their first five possessions and punted just twice on the day. Stephon Diggs racked up six catches for 120 yards and three touchdowns. On defense, Buffalo overwhelmed Miami's offensive line and generated pressure against a quarterback who had only taken one sack the entire season.
On a more sour note, the Bills lost cornerback Tre'Davious White to an Achilles injury. It's a big loss for Buffalo's defense, as White has been one of the league's top corners when he's been healthy.
That injury could prove to be Buffalo's own Achilles heel, but the Bills will be tough to beat as long as Allen takes care of the football.
Preseason Record Prediction: 12-5
Week 5 Record Prediction: 13-4
All anyone hoped for on Sunday night was an entertaining game, but most of the world expected an ugly blowout that resulted with Kansas City on top. Although the Chiefs escaped MetLife Stadium with a win, it wasn't in convincing fashion. Patrick Mahomes has a tendency to play hero ball in prime time games, which ultimately resulted in two ugly interceptions. He was bailed out of his third interception due to a controversial defensive penalty. Tackle Jawaan Taylor has 10 penalties already, including a facemask penalty that resulted in a safety on Sunday. The Jets could've won this game if they hadn't beaten themselves with their own mistakes, which should ultimately be somewhat concerning for the Chiefs. Still, all of these mistakes are easily fixable.
Preseason Record Prediction: 11-6
Week 5 Record Prediction: 12-5
There were a lot of questions about the Cowboys heading into this week. How would they respond to their shocking upset loss against Arizona in Week 3? Would the defense rebound and continue to be dominant with DaRon Bland, a fifth-round pick in the 2022 NFL Draft, filling in for Trevon Diggs?
The Cowboys defense wasted no time answering those questions. In the first half, Dante Fowler's strip-sack allowed Leighton Vander Esch to get an easy scoop-and-score touchdown. Bland scored Dallas' second defensive touchdown on a pick-six — the first of his two interceptions during a career-best game.
In their three wins to open the 2023 campaign, the Cowboys have outscored their opponents 108-13. The dominant performances will caused the red zone issues to be overlooked, but the coaching staff should be concerned. Dallas failed to score a touchdown on their first three red zone trips, extending their streak to seven consecutive possessions inside the 20-yard-line without a touchdown. They eventually broke that streak with a three-yard touchdown run, but that came long after the game was already decided. Through four games, Dallas is now 7 of 19 in the red zone.
The Cowboys will need to maintain consistency and find a way to punch the ball into the end zone against stiffer competition.
Preseason Record Prediction: 9-8
Week 5 Record Prediction: 11-6
Last week, I asked if Miami's historic win against Denver said more about the Broncos than it did about Miami. It turns out that it does. This game wasn't as close as the final score may indicate.
Buffalo frustrated Tua Tagovailoa by taking away his first read and forcing tough throws under pressure. While the Dolphins still generated 393 yards on offense, they couldn't get any of their usual explosive plays and couldn't drive down the field methodically. Miami had just four passes of 20-plus yards. The Dolphins failed to pick up a first down on four consecutive drives in the second quarter, which allowed Buffalo to pull away. A fumble and a poorly-placed interception by Tua didn't do Miami any favors.
The Dolphins could really use Jalen Ramsey on defense, as slot cornerback Kader Kohu, forced to play on the perimeter due to injury, was undressed by Stephon Diggs throughout the game. All three of Diggs' touchdowns came with Kohu in coverage, per Next Gen Stats. The defense allowed Josh Allen to add a perfect passer rating to his résumé.
Teams coming off a 50+ point victory are now 7-6 in their next game since 1970.
Preseason Record Prediction: 11-6
Week 5 Record Prediction: 12-5
After an odd loss to the Indianapolis Colts, Baltimore returned to form under the guidance of Lamar Jackson. The creative quarterback chipped away at Cleveland's defense with paper cuts — short scrambles and quick throws that kept the Browns defense off-kilter. Jackson finished with four touchdowns and just four incompletions.
In what was expected to be one of the league's toughest divisions, the Ravens have emerged as early favorites to secure the AFC North title. Baltimore already has two division wins, despite missing several key starters and facing some early struggles. With the Bengals collapsing, the Steelers struggling, and the Browns taking big steps backward every week, the Ravens are the clear favorites to represent the division in this year's postseason.
Preseason Record Prediction: 9-8
Week 5 Record Prediction: 11-6
The Lions set out to prove that they are no longer the "Same Old Lions." Powered by David Montgomery's 32 carries for 121 rushing yards and three touchdowns, Detroit took down the surging Packers. The Lions pass rush made life hard for Jordan Love, and Aiden Hutchinson continues to prove why he deserved to be the top overall pick in his draft class. To make matters worse for Green Bay, Detroit's rookie cornerback Jerry Jacobs became the first cornerback in franchise history to tally two interceptions in Green Bay since 1968. The winds are changing in the NFC North.
Preseason Record Prediction: 10-7
Week 5 Record Prediction: 11-6
After missing seven starters in Week 3, the Seahawks entered Monday night without four of their starters and lost three more during the game. Despite the onslaught of injuries, Seattle improved to 3-1 behind a red-hot pass rush that tied a franchise record with 11 sacks. Following their Week 5 bye, the Seahawks should get a few of their starters back in the lineup, including Jamal Adams and left tackle Charles Cross.
Like many other teams, Seattle's main concern is their third-down offense. They were 28th in the league in third-down conversion rate before their Week 4 matchup. Against the Giants, they only converted three of 12 attempts. They'll need to get that cleaned up, but Pete Carroll is building a promising team through the draft, much like he did a decade ago. Look no further than cornerback Devon Witherspoon, who had the best game of his young career with two sacks and a 97-yard pick-six.
Preseason Record Prediction: 11-6
Week 5 Record Prediction: 11-6
Trevor Lawrence finally looked like the quarterback he was expected to be. Perhaps his most impressive play came on a deep touchdown pass to Calvin Ridley, when Lawrence maneuvered in the pocket and dipped his shoulder to evade a sack before finding Ridley in the end zone. The Jaguars defense looked like the Sacksonville of old, led by defensive end Josh Allen's three sacks, including a game-clinching strip-sack.
Jaguars pass rusher Josh Allen became the first player to record three sacks in a game overseas, and safety Darious Williams recorded the longest pick-six in international game history with his 61-yard TD.
Preseason Record Prediction: 8-9
Week 5 Record Prediction: 10-7
This was Green Bay's opportunity to send a message to the rest of the division, but it looks like the power dynamics are shifting in the NFC North. Green Bay struggled to protect Jordan Love, who was pressured a season-high 13 times despite only facing a blitz twice. While Christian Watson played well in his first game of the season, sloppy mistakes ultimately unraveled the Packers. The worst mistake came from second-year linebacker Quay Walker, who tried to jump over the linemen on a field goal attempt. It's an illegal play, and the penalty put the Lions offense back on the field to ultimately score a touchdown. The Packers need to play smarter.
Preseason Record Prediction: 9-8
Week 5 Record Prediction: 11-6
Remember Khalil Mack? It seems like forever ago that the outside linebacker was wreaking havoc for the Raiders defense. Now, the Chargers 31-year-old veteran showed up against his former team to remind them why it was a mistake to trade him. With Joey Bosa sidelined, Mack stepped up and recording six sacks — one short of the single-game record set by Hall of Famer Derrick Thomas in 1990. Whenever the Raiders were developing momentum, Mack was there to shut it down.
Most concerning for the Chargers is Justin Herbert's hand injury that forced him to play out the remainder of the game with a glove and splint on his non-throwing hand. It affected him enough to force the Chargers to take their victory formation snaps from the shotgun.
Oh, and maybe someone should stop Brandon Staley from going for it on fourth down before it inevitably gets him fired. Pointing to the analytics as a justification only works if you ever manage to convert your fourth downs.
Preseason Record Prediction: 5-12
Week 5 Record Prediction: 9-8
Quarterback Baker Mayfield has played smart and taken care of the football. The defense has made key stops and turnovers. Overall, this Buccaneers team is playing with a lot more purpose than it did last season. Safety Antoine Winfield Jr. is a star in the making, and this defensive front, led by Vita Vea, is still capable of shutting down any rushing attack. Unfortunately, Mike Evans left the game due to a hamstring injury, and that could prove to be a big loss for Baker Mayfield and Tampa Bay's offense.
Preseason Record Prediction: 7-10
Week 5 Record Prediction: 9-8
Puka Nacua finally got his first NFL touchdown, and it just happened to be a game-winner in overtime. His teammates genuinely looked happy for him, and Nacua's rise to stardom is the type of story every fan loves to see.
To go along with Nacua's nine receptions for 163 yards, running back Kyren Williams tallied 103 rushing yards on 25 carries. The Rams are full of young players with underdog mentalities, and they're all rallying around their old, hobbled quarterback.
Despite Brett Maher missing two field goals, the Rams managed to pull out another win. This is a fun underdog team to root for.
Preseason Record Prediction: 12-5
Week 5 Record Prediction: 9-8
Joe Burrow's calf injury has been used to explain away the Bengals maladies, but the Bengals issues run deeper than that. Cincinnati has only managed to score three offensive touchdowns through four games. Calf injury or not, that is an unacceptable level of production from an offense that features Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd, and Joe Mixon. The Bengals have needed their defense to carry them through this tough start, but Cincinnati's defenders were often out of position, missing tackles and being beaten consistently. Even a timeout to discuss Derrick Henry's goal line pass made no difference — the Titans lined up in the same formation and Henry found a wide open target for a touchdown. The frustration is clearly starting to boil over, considering Ja'Marr Chase's comments to the media about always being open. Zac Taylor needs to coach better, or if he wants to pin all the blame on Burrow's calf, then he needs to sit him down until he's healthy.
Preseason Record Prediction: 9-8
Week 5 Record Prediction: 7-10
A week after his best performance as a Cleveland Brown, Deshaun Watson was sidelined with a right shoulder injury. Rookie quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson had built up a lot of hype during the preseason, but he looked overwhelmed by the speed of the game. Without Nick Chubb, the Browns running game struggled and Thompson-Robinson was tasked with far too much responsibility to succeed. The offensive struggles led to the defense being gassed by halftime, and that inevitably led to a blowout. Fortunately, Cleveland's bye week will give Watson time to heal.
Preseason Record Prediction: 9-8
Week 5 Record Prediction: 9-8
It's tough to judge the Vikings defense considering their opponent. Did they take a step forward or did they just look better because they were playing a winless team with a rookie quarterback and a poor offensive line? It's at least good to see safety Harrison Smith still quietly performing like one of the league's elite safeties. Smith recorded three sacks and a forced fumble. It's not so good to see Kirk Cousins continue to play sloppy football and turn the ball over. Cousins threw two interceptions, including his third goal-line interception of the season, and dropped a snap on a quarterback sneak attempt. The Vikings won, but they need to play better or they won't be so lucky against better teams.
Preseason Record Prediction: 10-7
Week 5 Record Prediction: 8-9
Ever since Drew Brees retired, the New Orleans Saints have been in a steady decline. Quarterback Derek Carr was supposed to be a stabilizing leader that would prove to be the difference maker in a weak division filled with inexperienced quarterbacks. Even with the return of running back Alvin Kamara, the Saints couldn't get much going. They managed to garner just 197 total yards on offense. New Orleans has been used to having Tampa Bay's number, but those days may be gone. Saints fans, you can thank Tom Brady for that culture-shift in Tampa.
Preseason Record Prediction: 4-13
Week 5 Record Prediction: 6-11
Head coach DeMeco Ryans has turned this franchise around drastically in just one offseason. Quarterback C.J. Stroud is playing like he might be the best quarterback from the 2023 NFL Draft, and Will Anderson Jr. is playing like the best defensive rookie of the class. Nobody expected the Texans to be competitive in the AFC South, but as of right now, they hold a tiebreaker over the Jacksonville Jaguars, the betting favorites to win the division.
Preseason Record Prediction: 10-7
Week 5 Record Prediction: 7-10
Pittsburgh is not a franchise that should be getting blown out by a rookie quarterback, but that's exactly what happened. After four weeks, two of the Steelers losses have come in embarrassing fashion. The offensive scheme is befuddling. Route concepts do not work in harmony with each other and spacing between routes seems off. It won't matter who plays quarterback for the Steelers if the offensive scheme and game plan looks like it's not thoughtfully designed.
Preseason Record Prediction: 10-7
Week 5 Record Prediction: 8-9
Not much went right for the Patriots in Week 4. The 35-point loss was the largest margin of defeat in Bill Belichick's legendary 29-year head coaching career.
Heading into the game, the defense was already thin at cornerback with injuries to key players. Then, New England lost defensive rookie of the month Christian Gonzalez to a shoulder injury in the first quarter. Immediately after Gonzalez went out, Dak Prescott hit CeeDee Lamb down the sideline for a deep touchdown.
While injuries can excuse the defensive performance, the offense has few excuses. The struggling offensive line managed to generate just 2.3 rushing yards per carry, and Dallas squatted on underneath routes as New England failed to threaten with downfield passes. On their last nine drives, the Patriots offense mustered up a measly 13.5 net yards per drive and just six first downs.
It was a game to forget for Mac Jones. Although the protection has been awful, Jones threw for 69 yards and two interceptions when he wasn't under pressure. His three turnovers resulted in 18 points for Dallas and he completed just 12 passes for 150 yards before being sent to the bench in the third quarter. Jones made some ill-advised throws and looked rattled, often leaving the pocket too early and getting himself into trouble. The third-year quarterback has shown poise in the pocket before, so maybe he lost faith in the offensive line. Whatever the issue is, he'll have to clean it up quickly. The Patriots brutal schedule doesn't get much easier for a while.
Preseason Record Prediction: 7-10
Week 5 Record Prediction: 7-10
Bijan Robinson faced at least seven defenders in the box on 10 of his 14 carries (71.4%) and still tallied 82 rushing yards on such attempts. Robinson's talent is evident, but Desmond Ridder is holding the Falcons offense hostage. After throwing just one interception in his first seven starts, Ridder threw two on back-to-back passes in the second quarter, just as the Falcons were getting in a rhythm.
Preseason Record Prediction: 5-12
Week 5 Record Prediction: 5-12
As expected, rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson is showing flashes of brilliance and streaks of inexperience. At times, Richardson missed easy reads and threw errant passes that miss their target. By the time he settled in and flashed his running ability, the Colts were already facing a 23-point deficit. That's tough to recover from, especially when the pass rush struggles to get to the opposing quarterback without heavy blitz packages.
Preseason Record Prediction: 5-12
Week 5 Record Prediction: 8-9
Last week, the Titans offense managed a putrid output of 74 total yards in an ugly loss to Cleveland. Against the Bengals, the Titans looked dynamic and inspired. First-year offensive coordinator Tim Kelly did what Cincinnati failed to do: he made the most of the players he had, regardless of injuries. Derrick Henry scored a passing touchdown and rushed for 122 yards on 22 carries. Henry passed Earl Campbell to become the franchise's second all-time rushing leader. He's at 8,631 for his career, now trailing only Eddie George (10,009).
Preseason Record Prediction: 7-10
Week 5 Record Prediction: 7-10
A week after his nine-sack and four-interception game, Sam Howell rebounded with an impressive performance. Howell made big plays throughout the game, but especially during the two-minute drill at the end of regulation. With just one timeout and 1:43 left on the clock, Howell drove the Commanders down the field and hit Jahan Dotson for the game-tying touchdown as time expired. While moral victories aren't good enough for head coach Ron Rivera, the Commanders showed some resilience and fight.
Preseason Record Prediction: 9-8
Week 5 Record Prediction: 4-13
The Chiefs handed the Jets several opportunities to win the game, and the Jets politely turned them down each time. There is a lot of optimism surrounding how well Zach Wilson played, but even a mediocre performance would be impressive considering just how poorly Wilson has played this year. After their 75-yard touchdown drive to start the second half, Wilson failed to find the end zone again. And when given the chance to win the game after the Chiefs' fourth-quarter field goal, Wilson fumbled a snap and Kansas City recovered. Don't let a few impressive drives fool you into believing this is a turning point — Zach Wilson is still not good enough to be a starting quarterback.
Preseason Record Prediction: 10-7
Week 5 Record Prediction: 7-10
Early in the game, it looked like Justin Fields was going to hang 70 points on this Denver defense. Anytime a defense makes Fields look like a competent passer, they're doing something wrong.
Ultimately, Denver managed to turn things around and mounted a comeback. This is a game they should've won, but they made it harder than it should have been. Sean Payton has a lot of work to do to change the culture in Denver, and it's going to take more than just one offseason to do it.
Preseason Record Prediction: 3-14
Week 5 Record Prediction: 5-12
After their inspiring win against the Dallas Cowboys, the Cardinals reverted to their same old ways. Seven first-half penalties put Arizona in an early hole. The Cardinals managed to battle back, but it took fourth down conversions and fake punts to do it. Playing in desperation mode is not an ideal way to win a football game. On a positive note, rookie receiver Michael Wilson looks like a legitimate threat. He caught all seven passes thrown his way for 76 yards and two touchdowns.
Preseason Record Prediction: 6-11
Week 5 Record Prediction: 5-12
Another week without Saquon Barkley, another week of Daniel Jones proving he was overpaid. The offensive line did Jones no favors, and Jones did no favors for his linemen. Eleven sacks speak for themselves. Still, Jones needs to play better when the ball does manage to leave his hands — he ultimately finished with two interceptions and one fumble. In total, if you're keeping count, that's fourteen plays that resulted in Jones being sacked or turning the ball over.
After the game, Seattle's rookie cornerback Devon Witherspoon was asked about his 97-yard pick-six against Jones. "We knew he liked to stare down his first target," Witherspoon said.
That's quite damning, especially from a rookie.
Preseason Record Prediction: 7-10
Week 5 Record Prediction: 4-13
With Jimmy Garoppolo sidelined, rookie Aiden O'Connell made his first career start. It didn't go well for O'Connell, who fumbled the ball twice and was sacked seven times. Although the Raiders managed to stay competitive late in the game with three impressive 12-play drives, their hopes ended with an O'Connell's interception to Asante Samuel Jr. The Raiders continuously get in their own way. They find a way to keep games close, just to ultimately find a way to lose them.
Preseason Record Prediction: 5-12
Week 5 Record Prediction: 3-14
A rookie quarterback with a poor offensive line is never a good strategy. Just ask Andrew Luck. It also doesn't help that Carolina traded away their top two offensive weapons in Christian McCaffrey and D.J. Moore.
The draft capital Carolina traded away to acquire Bryce Young is looking like it could turn into Ohio State receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. or USC quarterback Caleb Williams. In the long run, that may sting more than anything else that happens this season.
Preseason Record Prediction: 5-12
Week 5 Record Prediction: 3-14
Justin Fields was playing well, and they even managed to score 28 points. Then, Matt Eberflus decided to pass up a short field goal and go for a fourth down conversion. Obviously, he didn't get it. The obsession with analytics is out of control, and coaches with awful teams and awful quarterbacks should leave those probabilities to better teams. The Bears are in no position to gamble with whatever points they can get. On a more positive note, Chicago is in a good position to draft USC quarterback Caleb Williams and perhaps even land Marvin Harrison Jr.
