Traders raised bets on further European Central Bank interest-rate hikes after a hotter-than-expected inflation print in the UK bolstered the case for more tightening.
Money markets are fully pricing in a 4% terminal rate by October, with a quarter-point hike at next month’s meeting seen as almost a done deal, according to swaps tied to policy-meeting dates. The last time such a level was priced was in March.
Data released on Wednesday showed UK inflation remained higher than expected for a fourth month, ratcheting up pressure on the Bank of England to hike interest rates more aggressively and keeping investors concerned about sticky consumer price growth worldwide.
The report follows a warning by ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel that officials can’t afford to be complacent about inflation and shouldn’t worry about raising borrowing costs too far. While euro-area headline inflation is slowing, it’s still running at more than double the central bank’s mandate of 2%, and policymakers are vocal about their determination to get it back under control.
Goldman Sachs Group Inc, UniCredit SpA and BNP Paribas SA are among banks that have changed their outlook to forecast a 4% terminal rate in the wake of the most recent quarter-point hike to 3.5%.
(Updates with context throughout.)
