It didn't look like anybody could stop the streaking Reds and then they ran into the immovable object, the Atlanta Braves who took two of three over the weekend. The Braves are 50-27, the best record in the National League and can do some damage with a three-game series against the Minnesota Twins who are leading the worst division in baseball at 40-39.
Game 1 couldn't possibly have any more intrigue on the mound with Sonny Gray and Spencer Strider going head-to-head. Strider, the major league leader in strikeouts is 8-2 with a 3.93 ERA. Gray is 4-1 with a 2.56 ERA in 15 starts for the Twins.
Twins vs. Braves odds, run line and total
Twins vs. Braves prediction and pick
Sonny Gray has been one of the best pitchers in baseball with his sub three ERA, but why is he only 4-1? Well, the answer is that Gray does not go deep into games with only 81.0 innings in his 15 starts. In four outings this month he has pitched 20.2 innings and allowed nine earned runs. Gray only has a 59th percentile strikeout rate with a 35th percentile walk rate and by no means is the dominant force that his teammates will have to face all evening.
June has not been kind to Spencer Strider who has given up 16 runs in 21.0 innings, but the one thing that has remained constant is his strikeouts. Strider has a 39% strikeout rate which is 98th percentile in the big leagues with a 97th percentile whiff rate and 93rd percentile chase rate. He is the definition of dominance when he has things going and despite two shaky starts this month he was strong last time out.
The Braves are the best offensive team in baseball this month with 17 more runs scored than any other team and a league best 46 home runs. If any lineup can be productive against Sonny Gray it's this one and they'll certainly get a trip or two through the order against Minnesota relievers. Spencer Strider on the other hand could be ready to break his season high 13-strikeout performance against the Marlins back in April because the Twins strikeout more than any team in baseball. Their 807 strikeouts are 50 more than the Giants who have the second most.
Strider will be dominant against the Twins and the Braves will win big at home. These are both first place teams, but not all division leaders are created equal.
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