The best team in baseball is on fire again. The Tampa Bay Rays have taken the first two of this three-game series with the Minnesota Twins and now have won five straight games to get to 45-19. Last night it took a Randy Arozarena ninth inning homer to nab a 2-1 win at home, but a win is a win and the Rays will go for the sweep today.
For the series finale, Tampa Bay will go with Yonny Chirinos on the mound against Bailey Ober. Chirinos is 2-1 with a 2.79 ERA in seven appearances this season, only one of those a start. Ober on the other side is 3-2 in eight starts with a 2.33 ERA.
Let's take a look at the odds as the Rays are the favorites to extend their win-streak at home.
Twins vs. Rays odds, run line and total
Twins vs. Rays prediction and pick
Bailey Ober has been fantastic for the Twins this season especially last time out when he went six scoreless allowing just four hits against the Guardians. He got through those 18 outs with just three strikeouts and no walks. Ober is 45th percentile in strikeout rate this year and 45th percentile in whiff rate, however he is 94th percentile in chase rate. Ober is good, he's just not this good.
The Twins have a quality starting pitcher on their hands, but his expected ERA is 3.64 and FIP sits at
3.18. Against his fastball, which he throws 47% of the time, hitters are slugging .375, but that pitch has an expected slugging of .498. Hitters are going to do damage against that pitch at some point this season and if he is only striking out 7.8 hitters per nine innings, the lowest of his career, then I don't expect his ERA to hover around two for much longer.
The Rays offense isn't as lethal as it was at the start of the year, but they can still punish any pitcher in baseball, especially one who is due for some statistical regression. Meanwhile their typically excellent bullpen is 22nd in ERA this season and they'll need to cover quite a few innings with Chirinos on the mound. I like the over in this spot after a 2-1 Rays win yesterday.
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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change
