US Open picks and best bets for the 2023 tournament at Los Angeles Country Club as we have outrights, Top 10s and more PGA Tour expert picks for the third major.
US Open week is finally here as we head to Los Angeles Country Club for the first time in the history of this event and, truly, for competition at the highest level of golf. And while the golf world has been distracted by the PGA Tour's deal with the PIF and the future of LIV Golf, etc., you can't help but get excited when the US Open is here.
Traditionally as we look for US Open picks and best bets, we're looking for guys who can weather a tremendously grueling test. Though we don't know too much about LACC, all reports indicate that will be the case again. This is a golf course that demands precision from tee-to-green and, predictably, will have lightning-fast greens throughout the week.
Scottie Scheffler, the favorite at LACC, won't be part of our PGA Tour expert picks, even as one of the few with experience here thanks to the 2017 Walker Cup. The odds just aren't there. So who does end up on our card? Let's take a look at our US Open picks and best bets for this week at LACC.
Note: All odds are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook unless otherwise noted. Odds will be updated when made available. With such a big card for the US Open, the expert picks listed first are 1 unit, the rest are 0.5 units unless otherwise noted. For more betting picks and advice, check out BetSided.
Golf betting record in 2023 through RBC Canadian: 33-91-2, +3.556 units (2-26 on outrights, 0.5 unit bets, 0.1 unit longshot bets | -2.2 units at RBC Canadian Open)
One-and-Done record in 2023: $7,761,215.65 (Carson Young at RBC Canadian, $28,530)
US Open picks: PGA Tour expert picks for Top 5 Top 10, Top 20, One and Done
Top 5 pick at the US Open 2023: Rory McIlroy (+250, DraftKings)
As much as I would love to see Rory McIlroy win a major right now, I just don't see it happening given all of the off-course mental stress that seems impossible to escape from the PGA Tour-LIV drama. Having said that, he's not finished worse than T9 in any of his last three starts and the ball-striking numbers have all been there. With the way he drove the ball so dialed in at the RBC Canadian Open, I think he can pull out a Top 5 finish after four straight Top 10s at the US Open.
Top 10 pick at the US Open 2023: Xander Schauffele (+190, DraftKings)
In four of the last five US Open appearances for Xander Schauffele, he's finished inside the Top 10. The outlier was last year when he was still T14. The all-around game anchored by ball striking that we know from Schauffele should play well and, with a home-state (not conflating San Diego and LA as a hometown) bump in southern California, I think we see another relatively competitive but non-winning effort for Schauffele at a major.
Top 20 pick at the US Open 2023: Denny McCarthy (+320, DraftKings)
Quietly, Denny McCarthy is the 13th-best player in the field at Los Angeles Country Club in terms of weighted strokes gained total over the last 20 rounds. But the big key is that it's not just his always-hot putter. He's gaining 0.89 strokes on approach over that span, which fits perfectly with his accurate driving for this tournament. For these odds to finish Top 20 and a player who has three finishes in that range in his last five starts — two of which were in designated events — this feels like a home run.
One and Done pick for the US Open: Tyrrell Hatton
Back again and we've definitely got to re-evaluate the One and Done strategy because most of the big guns have already been used. Tyrrell Hatton has not been, though. Admittedly, this is still a win with how well the Englishman has played basically all season long, especially of late. We'll have more on Hatton in best bets forthcoming, but I love for him to put out another strong finish this week at LACC.
US Open picks: Best bets for LACC
Tyrrell Hatton to finish Top 5 at US Open (+600, DraftKings)
If you take out Brooks Koepka and Jordan Smith for a lack of measured rounds, Tyrrell Hatton ranks fifth in this field in weighted strokes gained total over the last 20 rounds. It's the profile you have to be enticed with, though. Hatton has gained more than 2.4 of those strokes tee-to-green with just shy of 1.4 strokes putting. He's doing it all extremely well right now and, coming off of a T3 in Canada, I think we see him continue a phenomenal season with a Top 5 at juicy odds.
Eric Cole to finish Top 40 at US Open, 1 Unit (+170, DraftKings)
Eric Cole has been playing a ton this season with virtually no weeks off but his performance has been impressive. He's finished in the Top 25 of five of the last seven tournaments and has been a solid ball striker who has been dialed with his short game. That could be crucial this week and, after qualifying in, I love for Cole to keep up a dream season with a pretty comfy Top 40 at nice odds for someone who's played as well as he has this season.
Si Woo Kim to finish Top 20 at US Open, 1 Unit (+200, DraftKings)
Whenever you talk about a course that's going to demand elite accuracy off of the tee and some streaky approach play combined with short game, I'm going to give Si Woo Kim a look. Those are his strengths and he's been running hot of late, finishing T2 at the Byron Nelson and T4 at Memorial while gaining most of his strokes tee-to-green. The putter needs to cooperate but the fit and the game are there for Si Woo to make a real nice showing in Los Angeles.
US Open picks: Who's going to win the 2023 US Open at LACC?
Viktor Hovland to win the US Open, 0.5 Units (+1800, DraftKings)
Sticking to my guns, immediately after the PGA Championship, I made predictions for the next two majors with Viktor Hovland pegged to win in Los Angeles after his third straight Top 10 in majors. All he's done since then is win the Memorial.
Though he's missed the cut in the past two US Opens, he has two Top 15 finishes previously. The short game at this speedy course at LACC is worrisome, to be sure, but the improvements there combined with his elite ball striking as one of only five players who we have full data on over the last 20 rounds to be gaining 3.0+ weighted strokes tee to green make me believe he finally tastes major championship glory.
Jordan Spieth to win the US Open, 0.3 Units (+3000, DraftKings)
What we saw from Jordan Spieth at the Memorial, his last tournament, has me eyeing him in a massive, massive way at LACC. He gained more than 7.0 strokes ball striking and added another 2.99 around the green. Now he's coming to a place that will require that same level of ball striking along with elite creativity and short game. He checks all of the boxes and he has to be in the mix given how well he should fit if he plays that way still.
Corey Conners to win the US Open, 0.2 Units (+6500)
Early in the season, I didn't fully like what I was seeing from Corey Conners. And while a T20 at his home national open this past week isn't a massive result, the numbers show me a nice picture. His ball striking is starting to get back to form. LACC demands accuracy in hitting the right spots and just flushing it tee-to-green, which is what Conners does best. With the putter looking fine, he should make a good run this week in Los Angeles.
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