For the last two years and change, the Michigan Wolverines have been the toast of the Big Ten. Jim Harbaugh's program plays with a great ferocity, one that will punch you in the mouth in every situation outside of the College Football Playoff. The 2021 Orange Bowl blowout from Georgia and the 2022 Fiesta Bowl debacle vs. TCU have been their only two losses since that horrible 2020 COVID season.
All things equal, Michigan looks to be Georgia's most worthy adversary for this year's national title. That could still be the case, but we have to wait and see what comes from the emerging sign-stealing scandal out of Ann Arbor. As expected, the college football world reacted accordingly to news of this scope. Someone still has to beat Michigan, but what about the NCAA or the Selection Committee?
We have seen teams be deemed ineligible for the postseason before. Fate would have it, arch rival Ohio State went a perfect 12-0 during Urban Meyer's first season at the helm. The Buckeyes were ineligible to play for a Big Ten Championship or a national title that year because of the tattoo scandal that cost Jim Tressel his post. A lot has changed in the last decade, but this one feels a bit different.
So with that in mind, could a sign-stealing scandal cost Michigan its opportunity at the playoff?
Could sign-stealing scandal cost Michigan a spot in the playoff?
There is a lot to get one's head around with this question, but let's try. What you have to remember is that the NCAA is not part of the College Football Playoff. The Selection Committee picks its four teams into its invitational and goes from there. Not to say it is their obligation to produce great TV games for ESPN, but a massive college football brand like Michigan certainly garners more eyeballs.
In theory, if Michigan is one of the four best teams in the eyes of the Selection Committee, the Wolverines will make the field. However, a 12-0 Michigan team that is somehow deemed ineligible to compete for a Big Ten Championship could get left out for three reasons. One, optics. Two, not having the 13th data point (looking at you, Notre Dame...). And three, more deserving conference champions.
Right now, there is at least one undefeated team in each Power Five league. Some, like the Big Ten, have a few. In a hypothetical exercise, if Florida State, Georgia, Oklahoma and Washington run the gauntlet and go 13-0 by winning their Power Five leagues, that is going to get them in over a 12-0 Michigan team who was not allowed to play Iowa in the Big Ten Championship over in Indianapolis.
If the Wolverines were to drop a game to either Ohio State, Penn State or whomever and finish at 11-1 (8-1), they would need about as much chaos as would a Notre Dame team in a similar situation. Again, the Big Ten and NCAA could intervene and keep the Wolverines from going to Indianapolis if evidence emerges that they were in fact stealing signs by way of some advanced, in-person scouting.
Overall, we have to play out the rest of the regular season first before we get into any of this hypothetical mumbo jumbo. We are only having this discussion if Michigan is found guilty and goes either 12-0 or 11-1 and is deemed ineligible to go play in Indianapolis. While the Big Ten did issue a statement about integrity, the same values may not apply to the Selection Committee's TV product.
Ultimately, just because the Big Ten could pull the rug out from Michigan does not mean the Selection Committee will follow suit. Optically, it would look really bad to the rest of the sport if Michigan, or any program for that matter, was allowed to compete for a national title after being caught and then reprimanded for cheating. Then again, we are not among the individuals who vote on the playoff field.
While I doubt the Selection Committee would willingly attach itself to scandal, I am not in that room, and neither are you.
