5. Aaron Jones, Green Bay Packers — 4 years, $48 million, $13 million guaranteed
Jones' place on this list has less to do with him as a player, and more to do with his role. Following his Pro Bowl 2020 campaign, Jones signed his current deal before restructuring it and taking a pay cut last offseason. He carries a cap hit of just over $8 million this season, but that hit jumps up to $17.7 million next year, which would be second among all running backs.
Now, Jones is good enough to where that wouldn't be an astronomical payday for him. The problem is that the Packers are just not utilizing him anywhere near where he should be, given both his talent and his cost. During the four games that he has played in this season, Jones has touched the ball a total of 39 times. In those same four games, A.J. Dillon handed the rock 48 times.
Jones is averaging 6.3 yards per touch, while Dillon is at 3.9. Since Dillon is in the final year of his rookie deal, Jones' cap hit is 4.87 times Dillon's. The best possible explanation for his limited usage is Jones' hamstring injury he suffered in Week 1, so we'll have to monitor how things go moving forward, but for now, Green Bay has a very expensive player who is not a featured part of the offense.
4. Russell Wilson, Denver Broncos — 5 years, $245 million, $165 million guaranteed
Wilson (and the Broncos) has played well the past few weeks, but the jury is still out on both him and the stage that his team is in. He is playing on a massive deal after Denver gave up a haul to land him, and his first season at Mile High was rough. Wilson definitely looked like he had lost a step, both mentally and physically, and while he's certainly been better in 2023, the Broncos are in a pickle.
At 3-5 following a very surprising victory over the Kansas City Chiefs, Denver is now 3-5, tied for last place in the AFC West, even after winning two in a row. They are not contenders this season, nor do they appear primed to challenge the Chiefs for divisional supremacy anytime soon. A full-scale rebuild may be the best course of action, but Wilson doesn't fit that timeline. He's going to be 35 in less than a month, and the Broncos are kind of locked into him long-term.
He carries a cap hit of $22 million this year, $35.4 million in 2024, and over $53 million in 2025 through 2028. Given the amount of dead cap that would result from cutting or trading him, Wilson will almost certainly be a Bronco for 2024, and it is possible that he could be moved in 2025 or 2026, but that would still involve a near-$20 million dead cap charge. That also does not take into account the level of play that Wilson will be at when he's 37 and 38; he could age gracefully like Aaron Rodgers, or he could quickly decline, which will affect whether another team is interested in trading for him or not.
3. Khalil Mack, Los Angeles Chargers — 6 years, $141 million, $90 million guaranteed
Mack has been one of the best defenders in the NFL for the better part of the last decade. He made three All-Pro teams with the Oakland Raiders and Chicago Bears, logging 49 sacks, 14 fumbles forced, 62 tackles for loss, and 90 quarterback hits over a four-year span that also saw him win the 2016 Defensive Player of the Year. Unfortunately, Father Time has begun to slowly win the battle against Mack, especially during his stint in Los Angeles.
Mack does have seven sacks on the season, but six of those came in one game against the Raiders. That isn't to discount the tremendous game he had, however, he has logged just one sack over his other six games in 2023 and had only two over his last eight outings in 2022.
At 32 years old, Mack is still a good player, but he is the second-highest-paid EDGE in the NFL by total contract value and is due to have a $38.517 million cap hit next season, which would be the ninth-highest mark in the league, behind David Bakhtiari and seven quarterbacks. It's a near certainty that the Chargers will restructure his deal and spread that hit out over multiple years, but that money will still come due at some point.
2. Daniel Jones, New York Giants — 4 years, $160 million, $82 million guaranteed
Quarterback contracts have exploded over the past few seasons, and that explosion unfortunately coincided with the Giants entering QB purgatory. The sixth overall pick from 2019 had his best season in 2022, throwing for over 3,200 yards, 15 touchdowns, five interceptions, and had a winning record as a starter for the first time in his career.
Prior to the season, New York had declined Jones' fifth-year option, which would have paid him over $22 million. At the time, this was a somewhat puzzling decision, as even though Jones was still unproven, he was a first-round pick, and $22 million is not much at all for a quarterback salary; though it would have ranked fifth in the league this season, it would drop to 17th in 2024.
That decision came back to bite the Giants, as they were left with no choice but to extend Jones following his improvement in 2022, and that extension came at the cost of $82 million guaranteed. The team is technically saving money this season, as Jones' cap hit is $15.4 million, but the rest of his deal will cost New York $47.1 million, $41.6 million, and $58.6 million.
Currently, those figures would rank sixth, 11th, and fourth in the league, and Jones is simply not in that tier of QB. He's regressed thus far this season, going 1-4 as a starter and throwing just two touchdowns to six picks. The team is on the hook for his deal through 2024, and at this point, it's likely they'll move on from him following the 2024 campaign, eating $22.2 million in dead money.
1. Deshaun Watson, Cleveland Browns — 5 years, $230 million, fully guaranteed
To be fair, there are a lot of reactionary takes floating around regarding Watson, and we still need to allow for more time before making a judgment. Watson didn't play for an entire season, joined a new team, was suspended for 11 games, and has been dealing with a rotator cuff injury this year, missing almost four full games.
With all that said, it's impossible to argue that the Browns have gotten anything close to their money's worth, nearly 600 days after giving up the largest trade package in NFL history and then subsequently giving Watson the most guaranteed money in NFL history.
Watson was flat-out bad in his six games in 2022, and aside from one game in 2023, has been even worse. He looks like a shell of his former Pro Bowl self, and his issues seem to be as much mental as they are physical. In 10 games as a Brown, He's completed 59.6 percent of his passes for 1,785 yards, 11 touchdowns, and eight interceptions. His yards per attempt has fallen 1.9 yards, and his air yards per attempt down 2.7 yards.
Perhaps Watson regains form, but the Browns are completely linked to him long-term. There are essentially no outs in his deal, and while his cap hit is a modest $19 million this season, it skyrockets to nearly $64 million in 2024, and he will lead the league in salary in both 2024 and 2025, and is currently slated to be second behind only Lamar Jackson in 2026.
There is no way to move on from Watson without Cleveland absolutely destroying their cap, and unless something legal happens that allows the team to get out of the contract, Watson will be a Brown through the 2026 campaign, before he becomes a free agent in 2027 with a void year cap hit of just $8.9 million.
If Watson starts to look like the player he used to be, the Browns will look like geniuses for the way they handled this situation. But for now, it's looking like they got too smart and got majorly burned.
