Many new SEC football quarterbacks are set to lead their teams into the 2023 college football season, but the returning starters reign supreme.
SEC football has sat perched atop college football for the last decade. Over this period, most successful SEC teams were led by elite quarterbacks, many of whom now find themselves among the best quarterbacks the National Football League has to offer.
The transfer portal has changed college football; this season, it has certainly had a dramatic impact on quarterback situations in the SEC. Across the conference, multiple quarterback battles are likely to rage on through the spring and may not be settled until after the 2023 college football season begins.
SEC teams have won 13 of the last 20 national championships, including each of the last four. Quarterback play continues to be among the most important factors determining which teams will remain competitive.
SEC Football: Ranking every projected starting QB for 2023 season
14. AJ Swann, Vanderbilt
Swann is set to continue in his role as Vanderbilt's starting quarterback for his sophomore season. Swann replaced quarterback Mike Wright last year and Wright's departure in the offseason helped to solidify Swann's starting role. However, while he's likely to retain the starting job, he struggled mightily in 2022 and failed to crack 150 passing yards in many conference matchups. Swann gets a bit of a pass for being a true freshman, and he has the disadvantage of playing for a program that has failed to meaningfully prove itself to be anything better than an SEC bottom-feeder beyond the last two decades. Swann is going to have to make strides with his play before earning a higher spot among quarterbacks in the best conference in college football.
13. Tyler Buchner, Alabama
Every good dynasty comes to an end. Maybe that is a bit of an exaggeration, but it certainly feels like Alabama's reign squarely at the top of college football has begun to crumble. That is not to suggest they will fade into obscurity, it is just likely fans should temper their expectations of the team from the days when they were a near-lock to be in the national title picture year after year.
After the departure of Bryce Young for the NFL Draft, not much confidence has been inspired by the Alabama quarterback unit set to replace him. The quarterback play of Jalen Milroe and Ty Simpson inspired the team to add former Notre Dame starting quarterback Tyler Buchner through the transfer portal.
While there is no assurance it's Buchner's job, he should be considered the favorite heading into the summer. Alabama's new offensive coordinator Tommy Rees coached Buchner in his previous role as the offensive play caller at Notre Dame. However, based on what we've seen of Buchner so far, the hype around his abilities is rather muted.
12. Graham Mertz, Florida
The slow slide from a quarterback room with Tim Tebow and Cam Newton to one with Graham Mertz and Jack Miller is one Gators fans have struggled through for a decade. After Anthony Richardson left for the NFL draft, the Gators were left with a weak quarterback situation.
Graham Mertz transferred to Florida this offseason from Wisconsin and while currently locked in a battle with Jack Miller, Mertz is expected to start the season as the Gators' starting quarterback.
At Wisconsin, Mertz played in a run-heavy offense that required little from him. And little did he show.
While it isn't improbable that Mertz has a successful Gators career, particularly if Billy Napier finds ways to couch him in an offensive system that doesn't expose his flaws. However, there's little from his tenure with Wisconsin that inspires hope he will provide the spark plug Florida has been looking for on offense for years.
11. Conner Weigman, Texas A&M
If you ask a Texas A&M fan, they've once again found their quarterback of the future. Others around the country are not yet convinced. During Conner Weigman's freshman campaign, he looked excellent in a close loss against Ole Miss and solid in a win over LSU. However, he still has a lot to prove in terms of his ability to lead Texas A&M to success in the SEC West. Luckily for him, he should be locked firmly enough into the starting role to get that opportunity.
Weigman will get two tune-up games over A&M's first three weeks, as they are set to play New Mexico and UL Monroe in the first quarter of the season. These games should provide Weigman meaningful opportunities to get additional reps in the offense before A&M faces a gauntlet of SEC opponents.
10. Spencer Sanders, Ole Miss
The Rebels starting quarterback situation is a bit confusing. Jaxson Dart seemed to make strides during his sophomore season with Ole Miss, but the team opted to bring in competition through the transfer portal in the form of Spencer Sanders.
Sanders has the most college football experience of any quarterback in the SEC. He played a total of 43 games over four seasons at Oklahoma State before transferring.
While Big 12 experience doesn't count for everything, it's hard to believe Sanders wouldn't transfer to Ole Miss as a senior without some indication he would get a long look for the starting job. However, his play at Big 12 didn't convince anyone any success he'd had will translate well to a conference where he will face much more sound defenses week in and week out. Moreover, Sanders is coming off his worst season at Oklahoma State; I don't think the move to Oxford will improve his outcomes.
9. Payton Thorne, Auburn
It does not seem like first-year Auburn head coach Hugh Freeze was thrilled with his choices at quarterback, prompting the team to bring in Thorne through the transfer portal this offseason. SEC coaches sought out experienced quarterbacks from outside the SEC this year in the transfer portal, and Auburn's addition of Thorne favors that trend.
The former Michigan State quarterback has two years of significant playing experience under his belt. After a strong 2021 campaign, Thorne's play regressed in 2022; he posted fewer yards, fewer touchdowns, a lower passer rating, and more interceptions than in the previous year.
While Thorne ultimately found a level of success in the Big 10, he struggled against the Big 10 elite — Michigan, Ohio State, and Penn State. In six games against those teams through the last two years, Thorne completed only 53.6% of his passes. In the SEC, he will face defenses like those nearly every week. It is unclear how he will handle the competition.
8. Brady Cook, Missouri
There is a three-man battle at quarterback in Missouri and Brady Cook is at a distinct disadvantage heading into the summer. While Missouri got a look at both Sam Horn and Jake Garcia during spring football, Cook has been sidelined as he recovers from labrum surgery.
However, I simply think Cook is the best of the group and will reclaim his starting job upon his return to the field. Cook is underrated, and played solid football his sophomore year, throwing for 2,739 yards on 64.8% passing. He also showed significant talent rushing the football; he rushed for over 100 yards last year in conference games against both Tennessee and Arkansas.
Ultimately, Cook's talent may be greater than where he's ranked, but there's plenty of uncertainty that comes with his profile in terms of his role with the team, his recovery from injury, and the general uncertainty that comes with Missouri's struggles throughout their tenure in the SEC since they departed from the Big 12 in 2012.
7. Spencer Rattler, South Carolina
Gamecocks fans sang the praise of a purported savior when Spencer Rattler transferred to Columbia from Oklahoma before last season. A savior he was not, though he did lead South Carolina to an 8-5 season.
Rattler is a one of South Carolina's most talented quarterbacks in recent memory, but his play is somewhat volatile. At his peak, Rattler's brilliant, but he also has lows that force one to question his game.
Rattler is an above-average SEC quarterback whose track record benefitted from the high-octane system he previously played in under Lincoln Riley. In his second year in the SEC, we will likely see continued signs of modest success, which is the most reasonable outcome for the South Carolina football team, as a whole, as well.
6. Carson Beck, Georgia
We have seen very little from the Junior quarterback so far, as he spent his first few seasons backing up Stetson Bennett. Bennett was drafted to the NFL this year after a successful tenure with the Bulldogs which prominently featured back-to-back national championships.
In some ways, the pressure on Beck's shoulders, as he is set to lead Georgia into this season, is substantial given the "threepeat or bust" mindset Georgia is likely to approach this season with. However, the Bulldogs proved time and again throughout Stetson Bennett's tenure that they know how to take the pressure out of the quarterback's hands by establishing a strong running game and playing elite defense.
Beck is expected to slot in nicely as Bennett's replacement and succeed in the role he will be asked to play at the helm of the hottest program in college football.
5. Will Rogers, Mississippi State
Rogers will return as Mississippi State's starting quarterback for his senior season. His volume statistics have been impressive over the last two years, finishing second in the SEC and top ten in all of college football in passing yards in both 2021 and 2022.
Rogers's play, from an efficiency standpoint, has been much shakier, especially against the top-level competition in the SEC.
It remains unclear how much of Rogers' success was a result of playing in the late Mike Leach's high-volume passing offense. Former App State offensive coordinator Kevin Barbay is set to take over Mississippi State's play calling this season.
Overall, it seems Rogers has a lot to prove this season and he'll have to do so in a new offensive gameplan. We'll see how he adapts.
4. Devin Leary, Kentucky
Leary was the best transfer portal quarterback addition in the SEC this off-season. Leary was added to fill the roster hole left by the departure of Will Levis for the NFL.
Leary struggled somewhat last year in an abbreviated season. His season came to an end early as a result of a torn pectoral muscle. His play slipped from what we had come to expect from him in the 2021 season.
In 2021, Leary was among the best quarterbacks in the ACC. He threw for 3,433 yards and 35 touchdowns with only five interceptions. He was also a very efficient passer, completing 65.7% of his passes, 8 passing yards per pass attempt, and finishing the year with a passer rating of 157.
Leary should enter the season as Kentucky's unquestioned starter and become a key piece to what could be a strong season for the Wildcats.
3. Joe Milton, Tennessee
After a late-season injury to Hendon Hooker, who was selected in the third round of the 2023 NFL Draft, Joe Milton took over at quarterback for Tennessee. Hendon Hooker, the former Tennessee and now Detroit Lions quarterback, has full confidence in his replacement.
In the two games that Milton started last year, he led the Vols to a commanding 56-0 victory over Vanderbilt and followed that up by throwing for three touchdowns in a 31-14 win over Clemson at the Orange Bowl.
Tennessee landed one of the best prospects in the 2023 high school recruiting class in quarterback Nico Iamaleava, who some believed might contend with Milton for playing time as soon as he arrived on campus. However, Milton outperformed Iamaleava in the spring game and has real-game experience under his belt – two solid performances at the end of the Vols' 2022 campaign.
Milton, a sixth-year senior, who transferred to Tennessee from Michigan in 2021, should get his first crack at leading the offense and is expected to capitalize on the opportunity.
2. Jayden Daniels, LSU
It might come as a surprise that the second-highest-ranked quarterback on this list is going to have to win a quarterback battle to continue to start for LSU in 2023. Tigers fans expect redshirt sophomore Garrett Nussmeier to compete with Daniels through the offseason. Those expecting Daniels to lose this competition simply underscore how highly underrated Daniels was last season.
Despite some doubt about whether Brian Kelly's coaching abilities would translate to the SEC, LSU had a very impressive season in 2022, finishing the year 10-4 and making an appearance in the SEC Championship game.
Similarly, there was plenty of doubt over whether Daniels, a former PAC-12 quarterback, would find success against the vaunted defenses of the SEC. However, based on any measure of success — statistics, leadership, eye tests, etc. — he performed well.
Another year worth of Daniels gaining familiarity with Brian Kelly's offensive system could mean a very strong year for LSU football.
1. KJ Jefferson, Arkansas
Jefferson is unique among the 2023 projected starting quarterbacks. Not only does he have two years of experience as a starting quarterback, but he has accrued that time playing in the SEC. Jefferson is not a transfer portal swap into the SEC after years of experience elsewhere — he has spent his entire college football career with Arkansas since he committed to play for the Razorbacks in 2019 as a four-star prospect out of high school.
The Arkansas football program has struggled over the last decade since Bobby Petrino left. However, under Sam Pittman's leadership, the Razorbacks seem to be turning the tide after back-to-back winning seasons and two bowl wins. Moreover, Arkansas cracked the top ten rankings at various points during each of the last two seasons.
This swift turnaround is in large part due to the play of their star quarterback. Jefferson has thrown for over 2,500 yards and rushed for over 600 yards in each of the past two seasons. Over those two years, he combined for 60 total (rushing and passing) touchdowns and only 9 interceptions.
Jefferson is set to return for his senior season in 2023 and should help lead Arkansas to another successful season. Beyond their SEC West games, a favorable schedule which includes non-conference opponents Western Carolina, Kent State, BYU, and Florida International as well as cross-division games against two of the weaker teams in the SEC East, Florida and Missouri, should only serve to bolster what Jefferson and Arkansas are capable of this year.
Jefferson is the best quarterback in the SEC heading into 2023 and may be one of the best quarterbacks in the country if he shows even small levels of progression. The Arkansas quarterback is a sneaky Heisman candidate this season.
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